MLB DFS Slate Analysis
This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the MLB DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.
MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown
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Zack Wheeler (PHI): Wheeler boasts the highest “Ceiling” among the listed pitchers at 52.00 and a “Median” projection of 20.51. He has a strong 21% Top_finish rate but also the highest projected ownership at 41.9% Own%. His salary is $10300. Wheeler is a high-priced, high-upside option who is likely to be a popular choice due to his consistent top performances.
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Max Fried (NYY): Fried presents an impressive “Ceiling” of 50.75 and the highest “Median” projection at 21.14. He also has the highest “Top_finish” rate at 25%. His salary is $9500, and his projected ownership is 26.3% Own%. Fried offers an excellent blend of high ceiling, high median, and top finishing potential, making him a strong contender, potentially at slightly lower ownership than Wheeler.
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Logan Webb (SFG): Webb offers a “Ceiling” of 48.46 and a “Median” of 20.03. His “Top_finish” rate is 19%, and his salary is $10000. Notably, his projected ownership is relatively low at 14.2% Own%, considering his high salary and strong projections. This makes him a fantastic pivot option in tournaments, offering elite upside at suppressed ownership.
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Matthew Boyd (CHC): Boyd has a “Ceiling” of 45.14 and a “Median” of 18.85. His “Top_finish” rate is 12%, and his salary is $8300. His projected ownership is 9.6% Own%. Boyd represents a more budget-friendly option compared to the top three, still offering a considerable ceiling at low ownership, which could be valuable for salary savings.
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): Yamamoto has a “Ceiling” of 43.55 and a “Median” of 16.76. His “Top_finish” rate is 6%, and his salary is $8800. His projected ownership is 25.4% Own%. While his “Top_finish” rate is lower than other elite options, his ceiling is still quite high, suggesting significant upside potential, especially given he is on a high-powered team.
MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown
- Zack Wheeler (PHI): Wheeler has the highest projected ownership at 41.9% Own% among these pitchers. He also boasts the highest Ceiling at 52.00 and a strong Median of 20.51. With a Top_finish rate of 21% and a salary of 10300, he is a premium, high-upside option who is expected to be widely rostered due to his consistent elite performance. His high ownership makes him a solid cash game play but might require differentiation in tournaments.
- Max Fried (NYY): Fried comes in with a significant 26.3% Own%. He holds the highest Median projection at 21.14 and an excellent Ceiling of 50.75. His Top_finish rate is also the highest at 25%, indicating his strong potential to be the top scorer, all for a salary of 9500. Fried offers a slightly lower ownership than Wheeler while presenting comparable, if not superior, median and top finish upside, making him an attractive option for both cash and tournament formats.
- Joe Ryan (MIN): Ryan is projected for a 26.1% Own%, very close to Fried. He has a Median projection of 15.19 and a Ceiling of 39.32. His Top_finish rate is lower at 1% for a salary of 9000. While his ownership is similar to Fried and Yamamoto, his lower median and ceiling projections suggest he might be less of a GPP differentiator and more of a “fade” candidate if his ownership remains high, given the other high-ceiling options available at similar ownership.
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): Yamamoto is projected for 25.4% Own%. He has a Median of 16.76 and a Ceiling of 43.55. His Top_finish rate is 6% for a salary of 8800. Despite a lower Top_finish rate compared to the top two, his high Ceiling indicates significant upside, making him a viable option. His ownership is in the middle tier, offering a balance between popularity and potential leverage.
- George Kirby (SEA): Kirby has a projected ownership of 20.7% Own%. He shows a Median of 17.34 and a Ceiling of 44.07. His Top_finish rate is 5% for a salary of 8000. Kirby offers a slightly lower salary point with a decent ceiling and lower ownership than the top-owned options, potentially providing value and a unique roster construction in tournaments where salary savings are crucial
MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown
- Shohei Ohtani (1B/OF, LAD): Ohtani stands out with the highest “Median Ceiling” at 9.82 and the highest “Ceiling” at 46.62 among all listed hitters. He also boasts the highest “Top_5_finish” rate at 33%. Despite his high salary of $7400, his projected ownership is remarkably low at 13.3% Own%. This combination of elite upside and low ownership makes him a premier option for DFS, providing significant leverage if he hits his ceiling. His 2x% is 4%.
- Ronald Acuna (OF, ATL): Acuna is another top-tier hitter, with a strong “Median Ceiling” of 8.81 and a “Ceiling” of 39.67. He has a 22% Top_5_finish rate and a salary of $6600. His projected ownership is 7.9% Own%, which is notably low for his potential. Similar to Ohtani, Acuna offers tremendous upside at suppressed ownership, making him an excellent target for tournaments. His 2x% is 3%.
- Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM): Lindor provides a solid “Median Ceiling” of 8.68 and a “Ceiling” of 38.17. His “Top_5_finish” rate is 20%, and he carries a salary of $5400. His ownership is 3.3% Own%, making him an intriguing low-owned option for a shortstop with significant upside. His 2x% is 14%, indicating good value potential.
- Juan Soto (OF, NYM): Soto’s “Median Ceiling” is 8.57 and his “Ceiling” is 38.94. He has a 19% Top_5_finish rate and a salary of $5500. With a 5.4% Own%, Soto presents another compelling low-owned, high-ceiling outfielder. His ability to reach his ceiling makes him a strong consideration for any lineup, and his 2x% is 13%.
- Byron Buxton (OF, MIN): Buxton has a “Median Ceiling” of 8.51 and a “Ceiling” of 38.84. His “Top_5_finish” rate is 18%, and his salary is $5700. His ownership stands at 3.1% Own%. Buxton offers a high ceiling at very low ownership, though his “2x%” of 8% suggests he might be a bit more reliant on hitting his absolute peak to return significant value, making him a prime GPP (Guaranteed Prize Pool) play.
MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown
- Donovan Solano (1B, SEA): Solano stands out as a top value play with an impressive 68% 2x%. This indicates a very high probability of him scoring at least double his salary in fantasy points. His salary is very low at $2500, making him an ideal “punt” option to free up salary for high-priced stars. He has a Median of 6.96 and a Ceiling of 27.52, with a 4% Top_5_finish rate and 5.4% Own%. His low ownership and high 2x% make him an excellent tournament play for leverage.
- Hayden Senger (C, NYM): Senger offers significant salary relief at just $2000 Salary, tied for the lowest among these value hitters. He has a strong 61% 2x%, indicating a high likelihood of exceeding value. His Median is 5.43 and Ceiling is 17.91. While his Top_5_finish rate is 0%, his projected 6.6% Own% and extreme low salary make him a valuable choice for catcher, allowing for significant investment elsewhere in the lineup.
- Taylor Trammell (OF, HOU): Another minimum-salary option at $2000 Salary, Trammell boasts a 58% 2x%. His Median is 5.29 and Ceiling is 15.10. Like Senger, he has a 0% Top_5_finish rate, but his extremely low 1.9% Own% makes him a deep tournament play for salary savings and differentiation. His high 2x% at minimal cost is crucial for roster flexibility.
- Kody Clemens (2B, MIN): Clemens provides excellent value at a slightly higher salary of $2800, with a 58% 2x%. He has a Median of 6.96 and a Ceiling of 29.59. His 4% Top_5_finish rate is notable for his price point, and his 5.6% Own% is low. Clemens offers a good blend of upside and high value, making him a strong consideration for second base where salary can be hard to save.
- J.P. Crawford (SS, SEA): Crawford, at $3800 Salary, still presents strong value with a 45% 2x%. He has a robust Median of 8.20 and a Ceiling of 34.08, along with a solid 15% Top_5_finish rate. His projected ownership is 6.5% Own%. While higher salaried than others on this list, his ability to provide significant fantasy points for his price, combined with a respectable Top_5_finish rate at low ownership, makes him an appealing value option for the shortstop position
MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown
- Minnesota Twins (MIN): The Twins have the lowest projected ownership among the listed teams at 20% Own%. Despite this low ownership, they show a 20% chance of scoring 8+ Runs, which is comparable to teams with higher ownership like the New York Mets or Colorado Rockies. Their average team salary is 3800. This low ownership, combined with a decent chance for a high-scoring output, could make them an attractive “contrarian” stack in DFS, offering leverage against highly owned teams.
- Seattle Mariners (SEA): With a slightly higher ownership than Minnesota at 22% Own%, the Mariners also present a potentially valuable offensive option. They have a 22% chance of scoring 8+ Runs and an average team salary of 4483.33. Their “8+ Runs” percentage is solid, and their ownership is still relatively low compared to the highest-owned teams, making them a reasonable target for lineups aiming for a balance of projection and ownership.
- Atlanta Braves (ATL): The Braves exhibit a 23% Own% and a 23% chance of scoring 8+ Runs. Their average team salary is 4800. This ownership is still on the lower side among the provided data, suggesting they might be overlooked despite a reasonable chance to hit the 8+ runs mark. They represent a mid-tier ownership option that could provide good value if their offense delivers.
- Colorado Rockies (COL): The Rockies have a 24% Own% and an identical 24% chance of scoring 8+ Runs, with an average team salary of 4166.67. While their ownership is similar to the Mets, their slightly higher 8+ Runs percentage might offer a marginal edge in specific game environments, especially considering their slightly lower average salary.
- New York Mets (NYM): The Mets share a 24% Own% with the Rockies and have a 24% chance of scoring 8+ Runs. Their average team salary is 4550. Despite having the same 8+ Runs probability and ownership as the Rockies, their higher average salary might make them slightly less appealing from a value perspective compared to lower-salaried teams with similar probabilities, but they still represent a lower-owned option compared to the top teams.