MLB DFS Algo Orientation: DFS Picks and Plays

MLB DFS Slate Analysis

This is an algorithmically generated breakdown of the NBA DFS main slate using the models found at Paydirt. You’ll get high level information about the most valuable players on the slate along with a handy table to use for your own lineups. For more projections and model data check out the MLB DFS Range of Outcomes and the MLB Contest Simulations.

MLB Pitcher Ceiling Data Breakdown

Cole Ragans (SP, KCR): Ragans leads this group with the highest projections across the board. He has a Median of 22.59 and a commanding Ceiling of 56.08. His chance of being the top fantasy scorer (Top_finish) is exceptionally high at 41%. With a salary of $10300, he is the most expensive pitcher listed in either pitcher source. His projected ownership is also the highest at 49.4%. Ragans projects as a truly elite option with slate-breaking potential.
Matthew Boyd (SP, CHC): Boyd shows the second highest Ceiling at 42.11 and a Median of 17.49. His Top_finish rate is 11%. His salary is $8300, making him a significantly cheaper option than Ragans while still projecting for a high ceiling. His projected ownership is 26.7%, relatively high but less than Ragans.
Ryne Nelson (SP, ARI): Nelson has a Ceiling of 39.81 and a Median of 16.20. His Top_finish rate is 7%, tied with Brady Singer. His salary is $6700, representing a mid-range price point. Notably, his projected ownership is very low at 2.4%. He offers an intriguing combination of a decent ceiling projection for his price and very low projected ownership.
Brady Singer (SP, CIN): Singer has a Ceiling of 41.71, higher than Nelson and Bryce Miller, and close to Boyd. His Median is 16.22. His Top_finish rate is also 7%. His salary is $8800, making him one of the more expensive options in this group aside from Ragans. His projected ownership is low at 8.1%. Singer presents a solid ceiling and Top_finish chance at a moderate salary with relatively low ownership.
Bryce Miller (SP, SEA): Miller is listed with a Ceiling of 40.47 and a Median of 16.19. His Top_finish rate is 6%. His salary is $8100, similar to Matthew Boyd. His projected ownership is 17.1%. Miller offers a comparable ceiling to Nelson and Singer at a similar price point, but with higher projected ownership than those two

MLB Pitcher Ownership Data Breakdown

Cole Ragans (SP, KCR): Ragans is projected to be the most owned pitcher on the slate among those listed, with an ownership percentage of 49.4%. This high ownership aligns with his elite statistical projections: a Median of 22.59, a Ceiling of 56.08, and a 41% chance of being the top scorer. His salary is also the highest at $10300. High ownership indicates confidence in his ability to perform well, but also means he’ll be in a large percentage of competing lineups.
Matthew Boyd (SP, CHC): Boyd has the second highest projected ownership at 26.7%. He has a salary of $8300, a Median of 17.49, a Ceiling of 42.11, and an 11% chance of being the top scorer. His moderate-to-high ownership reflects his strong projections relative to his salary, positioning him as a popular option below the top-tier price point.
Carlos Rodon (SP, NYY): Rodon is projected for 21.2% ownership. His salary is $9500, making him one of the more expensive options. His Median projection is 13.83, Ceiling is 38.57, and he has a 2% chance of being the top scorer. His ownership is relatively high given his lower Median and Top_finish rates compared to Ragans or Boyd, suggesting factors beyond these specific metrics (like team context or reputation) may be influencing ownership.
Ronel Blanco (SP, HOU): Blanco’s projected ownership is 20.2%. He has a salary of $7300, a Median of 13.43, a Ceiling of 33.86, and a 1% chance of being the top scorer. He is the cheapest pitcher in this high-ownership group. His ownership is notably high for his projected stats, particularly his low Top_finish rate.
Tobias Myers (SP, MIL): Myers is projected for 18.5% ownership. His salary is $5700, making him one of the cheapest pitchers overall, but with moderate ownership relative to his price. He has a Median of 14.98, a Ceiling of 37.10, and a 4% chance of being the top scorer. His projected stats appear favorable relative to his low salary, likely driving his higher-than-expected ownership compared to other low-salary pitchers that might be available

MLB Hitter Ceiling Data Breakdown

Manny Machado (3B, SDP): Machado is listed with a Median projection of 8.94 and a Ceiling projection of 44.51. He has a 24% chance of being a Top 5 fantasy scorer in simulations and a 31% chance of 2x%. With a salary of $4700, he represents a high-priced option with significant upside potential and a solid likelihood of a top performance. His ownership is projected at 5.3%.
Jorge Polanco (3B/SS, SEA): Polanco shows a Median of 8.96 and a Ceiling of 44.12, very similar to Machado. His likelihood of a Top 5 finish is also high at 24%, and his 2x% is 36%. Listed with a salary of $4400, slightly less than Machado, his projections suggest comparable upside. His projected ownership is considerably higher at 17.3%.
Christian Yelich (OF, MIL): Yelich has a Median projection of 9.11 and a Ceiling of 41.52. He matches Machado and Polanco with a 24% chance of a Top 5 finish. His 2x% is the highest among this group at 40%. With a salary of $4400, same as Polanco, Yelich appears to offer strong value potential alongside a high ceiling. His ownership is projected at 6.9%.
Luis Arraez (1B, SDP): Arraez has a Median projection of 8.60 and a Ceiling of 40.37. He has a 21% chance of a Top 5 finish and a high 40% 2x% rate. His salary is $4200, making him slightly cheaper than the others in this group. His high 2x% suggests strong potential return on investment for his salary, combined with a solid ceiling and Top 5 potential. His ownership is low at 2.6%.
Brice Turang (2B, MIL): Turang’s projections include a Median of 9.25 and a Ceiling of 38.45. He has the highest likelihood of a Top 5 finish among this specific group at 28%. His 2x% is 32%. With a salary of $4900, he is the most expensive among these five players. His high Top 5 finish percentage is notable, suggesting consistency in reaching a top tier outcome despite a slightly lower Ceiling number compared to Machado or Polanco. His ownership is 2.2%

MLB Hitter Value Data Breakdown

Brandon Lockridge (OF, SDP): Lockridge stands out with an exceptionally high 84% 2x% rate. His salary is low at $2200, contributing to this high rate. He has a Median projection of 8.13 and a Ceiling of 29.62, with a 16% chance of a Top 5 finish. His projected ownership is very low at 1.5%. He appears to be a strong value play with significant upside potential for his low cost, especially in large tournaments.
Luis Campusano (C, SDP): Campusano also shows very high value potential with a 79% 2x% rate. He has the lowest salary in this group at $2000. His Median is 6.95 and Ceiling is 23.32, with a 3% chance of a Top 5 finish. While his Top 5 likelihood is lower than Lockridge, his extremely low salary and high 2x% make him a notable value option at the catcher position. His ownership is 3.6%.
Jorbit Vivas (2B, NYY): Vivas matches Campusano with a 79% 2x% rate. His salary is $2200, same as Lockridge. He has a Median projection of 7.37 and a Ceiling of 23.95, with an 8% chance of a Top 5 finish. He offers similar high value potential to Campusano but at 2B, with a slightly higher Median and Ceiling. His ownership is projected at 2.6%.
Isaac Collins (OF, MIL): Collins has a high 75% 2x% rate and a salary of $2300. His Median is 7.26 and Ceiling is 25.81, with a 6% chance of a Top 5 finish. He represents another low-salary outfielder option with strong value potential. His ownership is projected at 2.5%.
Rowdy Tellez (1B, SEA): Tellez has a solid 69% 2x% rate at a slightly higher salary of $2400 compared to the others in this group. His Median is 6.94 and Ceiling is 27.32, with a 5% chance of a Top 5 finish. His Ceiling projection is the highest among these five players from this source. His ownership is the highest in this group at 7.3%

MLB Stacks 8+ Data Breakdown

SDP (San Diego Padres): This team has the lowest projected ownership among those listed at 25.0%. Despite this lower ownership, they boast the highest percentage chance of scoring 8 or more runs at 27%. Their average player salary is listed at $3950. This combination of high scoring potential and low ownership makes them stand out as a potential option in contests where differentiating your lineup is key.
ATH (Oakland Athletics): The Athletics are tied for the second lowest projected ownership at 26.7%. They have a 21% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, which is tied for the lowest rate among the listed teams. Their average salary is $4417, which is mid-range compared to the other teams shown. Their lower ownership might appeal in tournaments, though their scoring potential is lower according to this metric.
NYY (New York Yankees): With a projected ownership of 33.7%, the Yankees fall into the lower third of the listed teams. They have a 23% chance of scoring 8 or more runs. Notably, they have the highest average player salary among the listed teams at $4767. They offer a higher potential for scoring compared to ATH at a slightly higher ownership and significantly higher average salary.
ATL (Atlanta Braves): Atlanta’s projected ownership is 49.1%, sitting in the middle of this group focused on lower ownership. They have a 22% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, slightly lower than NYY and SEA, and less than SDP. Their average player salary is $4383, close to ATH and SEA but lower than NYY and ARI. They represent a mid-owned, mid-potential scoring offense according to this data.
SEA (Seattle Mariners): Seattle has the second highest projected ownership among the listed teams, at 68.3%. They have a 25% chance of scoring 8 or more runs, tied with SDP for the second highest rate in this list. Their average salary is $3767, the lowest of the listed teams. Despite high ownership, their relatively low average salary and high 8+ Runs% could indicate perceived value or a favorable matchup not detailed here