Weekly, we’ll take a look at the top game environments and what you need to target to chase ceiling fantasy outcomes. We’ll also go over where we think games may fail. In addition the game environments, I’ll also list top stacks and a DK core (usually 4-5 players) where you can start your builds this week!
In tandem with these thoughts, make sure to check out our range of outcome models for projections and ownership – Paydirt NFL Range of Outcomes
Well we got a NBA style slate this weekend! Endless value especially at the RB position. We’re going to focus on game environments and most likely have to update our core based on finalized ownership. With that said, there are still some game environments that I personally feel strongly about. Let’s dive in and see what games we can build around to leverage this chalk –
IND/PIT
- I’ll just be frank here. I’m infatuated with this game. From every angle. I said on The Bakery that I can’t find anything wrong with this game. This game has a 50.5 total, both defenses absolutely suck, and outside of Jonathan Taylor, who is clearly the second coming of Walter Payton, EVERYone in this game you can make a case for being underpriced. Let’s take a look at the firepower here from both teams.
- Starting with The Colts, you’ve seen me write about them week after week here so I just want to reiterate just in case you don’t know where I stand… they produce ELITE game environments. Their offense is incredibly efficient and their defense is designed to give up yards and hopefully disrupt you somewhere along your drive. It’s the perfect combination because when they play a competent offense, they will give up a lot of fantasy production. This week Jonathan Taylor will cost you a pretty penny at $9,800 and while he can still do his whole 3 TD and 150 yard thing, there’s so much value on this slate that I don’t know if he breaks the slate. Couple that with the Steelers, who are one of the few teams in the league who alter their defensive identiy from week-to-week depending on who they play… you can’t tell me Mike Tomlin won’t be selling out to stop him here.
- We’ve seen the Steelers play an elevated rate of man coverage against more run heavy teams (NYJ, SEA, CLE, GB) and they tend to run more zone against teams with more elite receivers (CIN, MIN). They actually played a ton against SEA and with that being only Week 2, I don’t think they realized who JSN is. Reasonable thinking here can lead us to believe even if we don’t see the man coverage, we will absolutely see them try to stop JT. And this is the week where Danny Dimes can finally break a slate. He’s $6,200, his receiving options are all under $6K, and you can make some really creative combos here using 2 of PIttman, Warren, Pierce, and Downs.
- For the Steelers, they’re a bit tougher to nail down because Rodgers likes to spread the rock, but this is a spot where he will absolutely have to throw. And to be fair…. he hasn’t been a horrible fantasy QB. He’s not elite but he hasn’t been a bum either. He has a TD throw in every game and has thrown more than 30 pass attempts in every game where they’ve been down or found themselves in a back-and-forth contest. Rodgers at $5,800, DK Metcalf at $5,500, Calvin Austin at $4,000, and then pick your favorite Steelers TE (either Freiermuth or Jonnu). This, like the Colts side for me, is a prime MME stack because of the combinatons you can make. Oh and also, Jaylen Warren is only $5,500…. yeah I want pieces here.
- The way this game shoots out and elevates it to a point where you could realize a ceiling outcome in multiple ways. My preferred way is to actually to take the Steelers side here…. the Colts can get them any which way. JT scores 2 TDs or if Danny Dimes throws for 300 and 3, I just don’t see a way that the Steelers are able to control this offense. Thus, making me want to take the slightly cheaper offense that I think will have to play from behind here as a home dog.
- Last note from me on this. This game has everything you could want from a super high-total. Cheap plays? Bad defenses? Above average offensive weapons? Also… a spot to pivot off of the chalk value we’ll have? Checks alot of boxes for me. This game will be a core focus for me in MME, SE, and 3-Max formats.
CHI/CIN
- The other game on the slate with a 50.5 total is when the Bears play the Bengals in Cincinnatti this week. This game is definitely going to be the higher owned of the three elite game totals this week, especially with cheap QBs on both sides, cheap RBs, and also, two of the highest upside receivers in the league.
- Starting with the Bears side, Kyle Monangai steps into a massive role here with Swift out and the Bengals are one of the worst rushing defenses in the league if not the nut worst. He makes a lot happen with your lineups and even with that, Caleb is still projecting to be the 3rd-4th highest owned QB. Monangai at $4,600 feels almost like a $4k Center in NBA who’s stepping into a bunch of minutes. I don’t think you question it, you just play him. I think he’s great even at ownership right now. The rest of the Bears will see decreased ownership because of this but Odunze still probably ends up somewhere in the 12-15% range. The Bengals are not a good defense by any means but they’re actually pretty good at limiting deep throws and want to keep you in front of them.
- On the Bengals side, there’s alot to like here. If I need to tell you to play Ja’Marr Chase you should probably take up LoL DFS or something (no shade, LoL is fire, but just saying). If Flacco plays, stacks are firmly in play with Chase, Higgins, Fant, and if you like pain, Yoshi. Also, Chase Brown finally had the game we’ve been waiting for and even though he’s splitting work with Perine, this is a matchup CIN can win through the air or on the ground. This Bears defense is absolute cheeks. Everyone here is cheap except for obviously Ja’Marr Chase.
- So I probably have an unpopular take here but I think Bears stacks aren’t really the way to go. And it’s not me saying that because I don’t think they can break the slate, they absolutely can. I just don’t want to invest in Caleb Williams at chalk. I think the MUCH better stacking side of this game is with the Bengals. Even if we get Browning, he’s only $4,000 and then makes a gamestack with Chase/Higgins/Monangai, or Chase/Fant/Monangai, that much more economical. I also have reservations about Caleb’s ability to throw the ball down the field here because of simply the scheme CIN runs. Feels like this is a game DJ Moore can finally do something noteworthy. The routes he runs here will for sure be open.
- To be clear, I’m not saying don’t roster Caleb. He can get there with his legs a bit and he can throw a touchdown or two. Just think he doesn’t unlock the upside of multiple pass catchers here. I will have a healthy amount of Monangai and some Bears one-off’s. I will absolutely be all over CIN stacks and Chase Brown. IND/PIT to me feels like a better spot to stack while this game feels better to take pieces of considering the ownership and price discount you get.
NYG/SF
- This game has a ton of fantasy appeal. 49ers going across the country to play the Giants and we have cheap pieces galore here (shocker) besides McCaffrey. And he’s just a smash play. On the Bakery I said that Mac Jones/CMC/pass catching option could be a sick way to go.
- From the 49ers side, it’s very concentrated. CMC will get a ton of work. Kittle is back and in full force, and you have Jennings and Bourne out wide. I think one of these 49ers wide outs will have a game as the Giants just love to man up their corners and dare you to beat them. They have an elite pass rush but if you can fend that off, it’s a college level secondary. Giants cant stop the run either.
- From the Giants side, Dart at $5,200 for his style of play is just such a bargain. You have cheap weapons you can pair him with, especially Theo Johnson. $8,700 for that combo against a 49ers defense that isn’t good anymore. Wan’Dale is $5,100 which in my opinion puts him almost in “stack only territory”, and a $4,100 deep ball threat in Slayton makes the double stacks here appealing. Tyrone Tracy was thought to be mega chalk, but I wonder with this allotment of cheap RB plays where he lands. He can be stacked with Dart as well as these RB’s in this system seem to have a pass catching role.
- The Giants stack here is very appealing from a price perspective and is a natural pairing with CMC. I think the 49ers wide outs are great one-off plays or great in a SF stack. I will be heavily exposed here for sure and love the idea of starting a build with CMC/Theo Johnson at minimum.
NE/ATL
- You may be reading this first sentence and thinking where is this coming from. The Falcons who have looked dreadful against the Patriots who just kick the living shit out of every bad team they play. So what’s the attraction here? Well… there’s quite a bit.
- First and foremost, you have to think TreyVeyon Henderson finally gets the bellcow work here with Rhamondre out. Drake Maye has been very good and this spot for NE is more about the RB value than anything.Oh and also, Drake Maye has been very good and even at $6,500, still has some meat on the bone. I don’t love picking a stacking partner with him but hard to argue when he throws 2-3 touchdowns every week and ends up running one in. He’s a great play at the QB spot.
- The Falcons side of the game is actually where my interest is peaked more. I think Penix stinks as a real life QB. But if they have any hope of righting the ship this season, this is a must win game for them. Bijan disappointed last week and I’ll never tell anyone to not play him, but this Pats D has been ELITE against RBs. I do think his passing game role gives him a tremendous floor and you can stack him with Penix. Also, Drake London is healthy and Kyle Pitts has been a great safety blanket. Going with Penix/London/Pitts only costs you a hair above $15,000 and they’re big road dogs.
- Could the Falcons just suck ass and get blown out again? Sure, they can. But this Pats secondary is nothing to be afraid of and this is by far the best compliment of weapons they’ve seen all year by far (sorry Josh Allen, your receivers are boooooty). Cheap stack here to leverage the Henderson chalk seems like a good proposition.
Here are stacks that I’m considering heading into Sunday. You will see more listed here than usual because of the extreme value we have this week, it brings more offenses into play that we’re originally thought to be overpriced –
- Colts
- Steelers
- Giants
- 49ers
- Bengals
- Lions
- Chargers
- Jaguars (mainly Lawrence single stacks)
- LV (you may not need the value but allows you to spend up in a lot of places)
- Chiefs (Hunt is actually a pretty elite value but def prefer that side of the game)
Finally, here is the core I’m going to be using to start my builds. This is subject to change with injury news and comments from coaching staffs, but you can use this as a starting point and pivot off of –
BOL! – Jason O