Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Week 14

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

• Zack Moss (31.87%)
• Bijan Robinson (19.14%)
• Christian McCaffery (18.83%)
• Josh Jacobs (18.21%)
• Rashee Rice (16.22%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Zack Moss

Zack Moss will benefit once again from Jonathon Taylor being out. While the results may not have been there last week, the usage was everything you could’ve asked for and it looks to be the same this week. Consequently, Moss rates as the clear top option at his price tier. The closest pivot would be Joe Mixon on the other side of that game, however, CIN looks to be giving Chase Brown some increased touches.

Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson is projected to be a popular play this week, however, there really isn’t anything that stands out in the models. Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, and Joe Mixon are all similar plays at lower ownership. Additionally, you can consider DJ Moore and Deebo Samuel as pivots in the FLEX.

Christian McCaffery

CMC simply has a ceiling that is hard to match by any other player on the slate. Moreover, he also has the highest median projection and the 49ers have the highest team total on the slate. Keenan Allen with full PPR scoring is the closest pivot outside of one other situation discussed in the Final Thoughts section.

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs has solid median and ceiling projections. Between him and Bijan Robinson at similar price points and both as chalk, Jacobs would be the recommended play. However, similar to Bijan, Rachaad Whiteand Jahmyr Gibbs once again stand out as RB pivots and DJ Moore as a FLEX pivot.

Rashee Rice

Rashee Rice rates fine and KC has the third highest projected dropback% on the slate. This play really comes down to ownership. If you think Rice is twice as likely to outscore Noah Brown and/or four times as likely to outscore Tyler Lockett then play him. If not, pivot to lower owned options.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Zack Moss and CMC look like the strongest chalk options, while Bijan Robinson is the most fragile. Josh Jacobs and Rashee Rice are fine plays but you may want to pivot depending on how much other chalk you have in your lineups. Based on ownership, a popular roster construction is going to include RB in the FLEX spot. Therefore, it may be beneficial to go heavier at WR plays in the FLEX instead. Furthermore, if Taysom Hill is out for NO Alvin Kamara should have safer TD equity and would have a similar ceiling to CMC for over $1k less. Players such as DJ Moore, Deebo Samuel, Rachaad White, and Jahmyr GIbbs stand out as pivots for GPPs.

Good luck and let’s bake some bread!

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