Paydirt NFL DFS Play Action Thanksgiving

Welcome to the NFL DFS Play Action here at Paydirt! This is going to be a weekly article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on the 5 highest-owned players and potential pivots. This article is used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one-off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.

Chalk DFS Plays:

• Brian Robinson Jr. (22.27%)
• Tony Pollard (20.38%)
• Terry McLaurin (15.43%)
• Jahmyr Gibbs (14.12%)
• Logan Thomas (12.10%)

For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF

Brian Robinson Jr.

Brian Robinson Jr. looks like an ok play in a vacuum. However, once we factor in ownership it looks like a perfect spot to pivot in GPPs. AJ Dillon and David Montgomery both deserve consideration at the RB position. AJ Dillon in particular stands out with both a higher median and ceiling at considerably less ownership.

Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard is another player that looks fine until we factor in ownership. In addition to David Montgomery once again popping up, his backfield mate Gibbs looks like the preferred pivot. Additionally, you can consider DK Metcalf and Brandon Aiyuk as pivot options in the FLEX.

Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin looks like one of the stronger chalk options. This is largely due to his cheap price relative to his ceiling. Notably, Deebo Samuel is the only positional pivot within +/- 3 median points. Furthermore, the higher projected pivots are all at the RB position which may make roster construction tricky.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Despite projecting for double digit ownership, Gibbs still looks to be incredibly undervalued on this slate. He’s shown up multiple times now as a pivot to higher owned players. Moreover, when you compare him to his own pivots his median and ceiling are significantly higher.

Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas sits atop the pivot finder at his price tier. The closest positional pivot is Jake Ferguson, however, at similar ownership it’s not much of a pivot. The real pivot play here is likely taking the $1k savings by dropping to Kraft, or spending up to get to Kittle.

DFS Play Action: Final Thoughts

Both DET RBs look like solid pivots in GPPs with Jahmyr Gibbs standing out as one of the most undervalued plays on the slate. Based on ownership, WAS pieces is going to be quite popular despite the general consensus that Dallas hammers them. Consequently, a way to take advantage of this in GPPs might be to roll out a WAS stack. By pairing low-owned Sam Howell with his chalk pass catchers you can offset the ownership but still take advantage of them doing well. It’s worth noting that CMC, Amon-Ra, and Lamb were not discussed. All 3 of these players are similarly priced and will be popular. Therefore, there’s not much use in discussing pivoting from 20% owned CMC to 20% owned Amon-Ra.

Good luck and let’s bake some bread!

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