Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Markelle Fultz as well as the rest of the Orlando Magic will be extremely popular tonight due to only having 8 active players. Fultz is already averaging 0.99 FPPM this season and he will have as much usage as he can handle tonight. Additionally, he’s projected to play 36 minutes and could honestly see up to 40 and it wouldn’t be shocking.
- Alec Burks grades out as one of the top value plays on both DFS sites tonight. Burks has been averaging over a FPPM and that should see a slight increase with no Killian Hayes tonight for the Pistons. At his current price point Burks is undervalued relative to both his median and ceiling.
- Onyeka Okongwu will be chalk yet again as Capela remains out for the Hawks. However, Okongwu has a very wide range of outcomes. In just the past 2 games we’ve seen 21 minutes and less than 20 fantasy points, and 37 minutes and over 40 fantasy points. With that much variance he’s certainly worthy of a fade at inflated ownership.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Markelle Fultz
Alec Burks
Bol Bol
Onyeka Okongwu
Giannis Antetokounmpo
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Trae Young, Damian Lillard, D’Angelo Russell
SG: James Harden, Malachi Flynn, Duane Washington Jr.
SF: Jimmy Butler, OG Anunoby, Saddiq Bey
PF: Zion Williamson, Kyle Kuzma, Admiral Schofield
C: Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Pascal Siakam
Popular DFS Play: Markelle Fultz
Price: $6,000/$6,800
Own%: 43.50%/60.04%
DFS Value Play: Alec Burks
Price: $4,400/$5,300
5x%: 72.90%/54.20%
Player to avoid in DFS: Onyeka Okongwu
Price: $5,300/$6,200
LevX: -22.17/ -32.78
NBA DFS final thoughts
This is one of the most straightforward slates we’ve had in a long time. In cash games you play 4-5 Magic and Giannis. In GPPs you have multiple ways to get different: limit Magic exposure, play a stud other than Giannis, don’t play Burks/Okongwu. Any of those moves alone, or in combination, will set you apart from the field. Good luck tonight!
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