Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Nikola Vucevic chalk is not something we see a lot of in the year 2022 yet here we are. He has back to back games scoring over 40 fantasy points and is underpriced on both sites relative to his ceiling. However, he will be very popular tonight and is fully capable of burning lineups. This is one where you’ll likely want to base it on the ownership of the rest of your lineup.
- Patrick Williams is projected to play around 30 minutes tonight and is a strong bet to hit value if that holds. The Atlanta Hawks are a solid matchup to target and Williams is too cheap on both sites considering his median projection well over 5x his price. This seems like a legit value to just plug in and keep it moving.
- DeMar DeRozan has been one of the more frustrating players to roster in DFS this season. While he absolutely has a 60 point ceiling, he can also slum his way to a 35 point outcome. Accordingly, his median projection is roughly in between that at 45 fantasy points. However, there are so many other players in his price range with a similar ROO at less ownership it’s hard to prioritize DeRozan tonight.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Jordan Poole
Lebron James
Patrick Williams
Nikola Vucevic
Alex Caruso (if playing), Tari Eason (if Caruso is out)
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Damian Lillard, Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball
SG: Paul George, Immanuel Quickley, Alec Burks
SF: Jaylen Brown, Anthony Edwards, Isaac Okoro
PF: Kevin Durant, Pascal Siakam, Jaden McDaniels
C: Joel Embiid, Domantas Sabonis, Brook Lopez
Popular DFS Play: Nikola Vucevic
Price: $7,100/$7,900
Own%: 44.49%/30.04%
DFS Value Play: Patrick Williams
Price: $4,000/$4,500
5x%: 75.40%/64.70%
Player to avoid in DFS: DeMar DeRozan
Price: $8,500/$8,400
LevX: -15.68/ -39.61
NBA DFS final thoughts
The fact that all three main points tonight were Bulls on an 11-game slate should tell you all you need to know. There is simply no reason for an inconsistent team with no real injury issues to be garnering so much ownership on a large slate. A very easy way to get different is to simply limit your exposure to Bulls. Golden State does at least have injuries accounting for role increases, however, this is a borderline G-League team. Poole is priced up too high and the value plays have limited ceilings. A strong way to go in DFS tonight is just limit Bulls/Warriors exposure in GPPs. Good luck tonight!
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