Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- Gordon Hayward is coming off a nice 35.3 Draftkings performance last game and his price has actually dropped $200. At the time of writing this, there is virtually no value on the slate, so Hayward’s modest price tag is going to attract a lot of attention tonight. I’ll talk more about this in final thoughts, but there really isn’t a major reason that Hayward should be drawing this much ownership.
- Jalen Williams might be a little too late onto the scene to win Rookie of the Year, but his play recently suggests he’s trying to make a push. Williams has scored 38+ Draftkings points in 7 of his last 10 games, including 38.5 Draftkings points last game in the same exact matchup. As I mentioned above, this slate is severely lacking for value, so someone who hasn’t scored less than 29.5 Draftkings points in his last 12 games priced at $6,700 is a nice value play tonight.
- Eric Gordon is likely to enter the starting lineup for Paul George, who got hurt when these two teams played 2 nights ago. Gordon is going to draw a ton of ownership at just $5,300 on Draftkings. However, Gordon has been playing upper 20 minutes for 7 straight games and has only eclipsed 23.5 Draftkings points once. While Gordon is likely stepping into increased usage, he is streaky and nowhere close to cheap. Despite projecting for the ownership of a “smash” chalk play, Gordon is expensive enough tonight to come in well under the field.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Russell Westbrook
Eric Gordon
Jalen Williams
Gordon Hayward
Mitchell Robinson
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: SGA, Josh Giddey, Immanuel Quickley
SG: Caris Levert, Isaiah Joe, Kelly Oubre
SF: Cam Johnson, Kawhi, Josh Hart
PF: Julius Randle, DFS, Royce Oneale
C: Ivica Zubac, Wendell Carter, Nic Claxton
DFS Popular Player: Gordon Hayward
Price: $5,700/$6,300
Own%: 53.09%/46.44%
DFS Value Player: Jalen Williams
Price: $6,700/$7.500
5x%: 38%/31%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Eric Gordon
Price: $5,300/$5,800
LevX: -28.66/-26.23
NBA DFS Final Thoughts
Unless Jalen Brunson goes from Questionable to out, this slate is starved of value. These can be great slates for GPP bros, players like Gordon Hayward and Eric Gordon are projecting for outsized ownership for no real reason other than having slightly better median projections than players around them. Pay close attention to players projections in comparison to their ownership and find spots where you can play players with similar projections at fractions of the ownership. Good luck tonight!
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