Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- TJ McConnell has taken full advantage of the absence of Haliburton. He has put up two 50 fantasy point games out of the last 4 including a triple-double last time out. Despite his elevated price tag he still has a median projection around 6x. He will be incredibly popular, but there are very few (literally none on Draftkings) pivots with his combo of median/ceiling.
- Payton Pritchard grades out as a top value on both DFS sites due to everyone being out for the Celtics. In this case everyone being Smart, Brogdon, Horford, and Brown. Consequently, Pritchard projects incredibly well and will also be highly owned. However, it’s worth noting that he played 31 minutes last night but had a fantasy point per minute rate of less than 0.5. Granted, much of that playing time was with Brown also on the court so we can assume usage will be significantly increased tonight.
- Deni Avdija is going to be a popular value option tonight. The Wizards just traded Rui Hachimura and will also be without Porzingis who is week-to-week. This should lead to solidified minutes for Avdija and he currently projects for about 30. That being said, he’s well under a fantasy point per minute so he’s going to need every minute he can get. Given his high ownership, a fade is definitely in consideration.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
TJ McConnell
Derrick White
Deni Avdija
Payton Pritchard
Luka Doncic
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Jalen Brunson, CJ McCollum, Russell Westbrook
SG: Quentin Grimes, Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro
SF: Herb Jones, Mikal Bridges, Bruce Brown
PF: Jimmy Butler, Evan Mobley, LeBron James
C: Myles Turner, Bam Adebayo, Nikola Vucevic
Popular DFS Player: TJ McConnell
Price: $6,100/$6,600
Own%: 64.17%/70.00%
Value DFS Player: Payton Pritchard
Price: $3,700/$4,100
5x%: 71.80%/63.90%
Player to Avoid in DFS: Deni Avdija
Price: $4,000/$5,000
LevX: -20.22/-19.54
NBA DFS final thoughts
TJ McConnell, Derrick White, and Luka Doncic have little to no comparable pivots at their respective price points, but they all will be highly owned. Likewise, Deni Avdija, Payton Pritchard, and Chris Paul will also be highly owned, but each of them have several pivots available at lower ownership. Potential big news is the status of Jokic who is questionable and missed the Nuggets last game. Michael Porter Jr. has already been ruled out so no Jokic would make the remaining Nuggets elite plays. Finally, outside of Luka every other stud is going to be lower owned. Lots of ways to find leverage tonight. Good luck!
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