Welcome to the NBA DFS Triple Threat here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the NBA DFS slate. We will talk through the most popular player on the slate, a great value play, and a situation you need to monitor to find success. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well. Costs, Projections, and finishing percentiles format will be Draftkings/Fanduel.
Main Points:
- If Mitchell were to be ruled out, Caris Levert would likely start in his place and assume the same type of role Mitchell has. Levert has received a 2.3% usage bump this season with Mitchell off the floor. Levert has averaged 19-5-5 in 5 games without Mitchell this season. Jarrett Allen receives the largest usage bump with Mitchell off the floor this season at +7.2%. Mobley and Garland receive 3.2% and 2.9% bumps respectively with Mitchell off the floor this season.
- If Lauri Markkenan were to be ruled out, it is unclear who would start in his place with Olynyk also already ruled out. However, with Markkenan off the floor this season, Mike Conley has recieved the largest bump in usage at +3.5% per 36 minutes, with Clarkson close behind at +3.1%. With Sexton also out the Jazz will be short on scoring options and could rely heavily on Conley and Clarkson if Markannen were to miss tonight’s game.
- Anthony Edwards has been playing through a hip injury recently and could miss tonight’s game. If he were to be ruled out, either Austin Rivers or Jaylen Nowell would start in his place. Edwards has yet to miss a game this season, so it is hard to determine who would be the largest beneficiary but we can assume that Russell will get a large bump in usage along with Nowell and whoever they choose to start in his place.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
NBA Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement
Andrew Nembhard
Buddy Hield
Isaiah Jackson
Malik Beasley
Luka Doncic
NBA GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., NAW, James Harden
SG: Cody Martin, Isaac Okoro, Mitchell (if he plays)
SF: Aaron Neismith, Jaden McDaniels, Josh Hart
PF: Jalen McDaniels, Reggie Bullock, PJ Washington
C: Drew Eubanks, Steven Adams
Questionable DFS Player #1: Donovan Mitchell
Price:
Own%:
Questionable DFS Player #2: Lauri Markkanen
Price:
5x%:
Questionable DFS Player #3: Anthony Edwards
Price:
LevX:
NBA DFS final thoughts
Different format than usual for tonight’s article due to how many stars are questionable at the time of writing. The biggest edge in NBA DFS remains how quickly you can react to injury news close to lock and how well you can execute late swap after lock. Consider leaving yourself optionality by not playing a lot of players from the early games that don’t contain a ton of important injury news. You can gain a big edge by swapping to smash values should some of the stars get ruled out later in the night. Good luck!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.