Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Gerrit Cole with Mets bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Reds, Dodgers and Twins. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Tony Gonsolin, Dylan Cease and Yusei Kikuchi.
- Joe Ryan rates as the top pitcher in the models and presents a nice ownership discount from Cole. Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, and Logan Webb rate as the best of the rest.
- The Reds rate as the top stack in the models, but will carry some ownership. Likewise, the Mets also project great but be popular. The Royal, Cubs, Blue Jays, and A’s rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Dylan Cease, Joe Ryan, Yusei Kikuchi
Our three heroes tonight are also three guys that have burned those who trusted them on more than one occasion. That said, they do each have upside just with a wider range of outcomes. All three of these pitchers look like solid options in GPPs at an ownership discount off of Cole/Gonsolin.
Zeros: Dane Dunning, Cole Ragans, Dakota Hudson
The Mets are projecting to be incredibly popular against Ragans and the Twins look like the highest owned value stack versus Hudson. However, the White Sox will have much lower ownership versus Dunning despite having the best matchup of the three.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Gerrit Cole
1B: Kevin Newman
2B: Matt McLain
3B: Spencer Steer
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Seiya Suzuki
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Joe Ryan
1B: Pete Alonso
2B: Brandon Lowe
3B: Isaac Paredes
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Seth Brown
DFS Stack Considerations
Reds
Mets
Royals
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Ryan and Reds makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (KC, OAK, TOR). In large field the models support fading Gonsolin and Dodgers. In addition to the top stacks, the Cubs, Blue Jays, A’s, Yankees, Rays and Giants all look good. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Cole paired with Gonsolin. Joe Ryan looks like the clear pivot from Cole, and Gonsolin can be faded in favor of Cease or Kikuchi.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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