Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Strider/Lynn with Padres bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Mets, Dodgers and Brewers. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Andrew Heaney and Zac Gallen.
- Spencer rates as the top pitcher in the models despite the top price and ownership. Additionally, Strider and Lynn are the only pitchers with a median projection over 20 DK points making it tough to fade the chalk. Freddy Peralta, Pablo Lopez, and Bryce Miller rate as the best of the rest.
- The Braves rate as the top stack in the models, and will have little ownership. Likewise, the Astros also project great and will have little ownership. The Rays, Mets, White Sox, Reds, and Rangers rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Spencer Strider, Pablo Lopez, Jose Quintana
There’s not much to say about Strider other than he’s the best pitcher in baseball currently. However, his price forces you into a certain type of construction that will be similar to anyone else playing him. Pablo Lopez offers a slight discount from Strider with a fairly high floor. Lastly, Quintana is an interesting SP2 punt option for GPPs given the solid matchup.
Zeros: Zach Greinke, Johan Oviedo, Brayan Bello
Greinke continues to not be good but avoid a true blowup, so caution with Mets is understandable. Oviedo also has terrible True AVG but you have to trust the TIgers to take advantage. Finally, Bello has a perception of being semi-good and no one is playing Mariners.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Spencer Strider
1B: Daniel Vogelbach
2B: Edouard Julien
3B: Maikel Garcia
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Tommy Pham
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Pedro Avila (DK only)/Freddy Peralta
1B: Matt Olson
2B: Whit Merrifield
3B: Isaac Paredes
SS: Wander Franco
OF: Riley Greene
DFS Stack Considerations
Braves
Astros
Rays
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Lynn and Braves makes sense in small field. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (CWS, CIN, TEX). In large field the models support fading Heaney/Gallen and Padres. In addition to the top stacks, the Mets, White Sox, Reds and Rangers are all viable. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Strider paired with Lynn. Gallen will be the popular pivot off of Strider and Heaney off of Lynn. However, both can be avoided in GPPs in favor of Peralta/Quintana.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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