Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Yu Darvish with Toronto bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Brewers, DBacks, Guardians and Reds. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Logan Allen, Kenta Maeda, and Luis Castillo.
- Maeda rates as the top pitcher in the models, and is the only arm that projects for 20 or more DK points. Yu Darvish and Patrick Corbin rate as the best of the rest. However, with the two best rated pitchers also being chalk you’ll likely need to get different with bats tonight.
- The Nationals rate as the top stack in the models, and will have low enough ownership that you can pair them with chalk pitching. The Padres, DBacks, and Twins rate as the next best options. However, remember that any team with an 8+ above 25% can be considered in GPPs.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Kenta Maeda, Yu Darvish, Logan Allen
All three Heroes tonight represent the three highest owned pitchers on the slate. That being said, it’s probably best to eat this chalk given their median projections and get different with bats. Logan Allen would be the one to fade if going that route.
Zeros: Quinn Priester, Adam Wainwright, Graham Ashcraft
Ashcraft finds himself in the zero section as usual. Accordingly, Brewers bats will be popular. However, both the Padres and Diamondback will be under-owned despite being in better matchups-
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Yu Darvish
1B: Nathaniel Lowe
2B: Ketel Marte
3B: Andruw Monasterio
SS: CJ Abrams
OF: Jake McCarthy
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Kenta Maeda
1B: Josh Bell
2B: Ha-Seong Kim
3B: Maikel Garcia
SS: Geraldo Perdomo
OF: Corbin Carrol
DFS Stack Considerations
Nationals
Padres
Diamondbacks
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Maeda and Nationals makes sense in small field, although they might make a better mini stack. You can also utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (SDP, MIN, TEX). In large field the models support fading Logan Allen, Luis Castillo and the Blue Jays. In addition to the top stacks, the Twins, Guardians, Rangers, Rockies and Dodgers also look good. It’s worth noting the Rockies has more to do with the WAS bullpen than Corbin. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Darvish paired with one of Allen/Maeda. However, dropping from Allen to Corbin is aviable GPP move.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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