Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Luis Castillo with Angels bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on White Sox, Guardians, Rangers, and Twins. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Gavin Williams, Yu Darvish, and Shohei Ohtani.
- Paul Blackburn rates as the top pitcher in the models and is a great pivot off of Darvish. Michael Kopech, Sean Manaea, and Garrett Whitlock rate as the best of the rest.
- The Mariners rate as the top stack in the models and will be under-owned relative to the upside. The Angels, Yankees, Giants, and White Sox rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Sean Manaea, Michael Kopech, Paul Blackburn
All three Heroes tonight make strong GPP pivots off of chalkier options in their respective price ranges. Kopech over Castiollo, Blackburn over Darvish, and Manaea over Gavin Williams.
Zeros: Jhony Brito, Michael Grove, Martin Perez
Stacking against Grove and Perez is no secret as both the Angels and White Sox will be popular. However, very few people are attacking Jhony Brito who has the worst True AVG on the slate.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Shohei Ohtani
1B: Brandon Drury
2B: Luis Rengifo
3B: Jake Burger
SS: Amed Rosario
OF: Mickey Moniak
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Paul Blackburn
1B: Ty France
2B: David Villar
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: Andrew Velazquez
OF: Julio Rodriguez
DFS Stack Considerations
Mariners
Angels
Yankees
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Blackburn and Angels makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (SEA, NYY, and SFG). In large field the models support attacking Castillo and fading CLE/TEX/MIN. In addition to the top stacks, the Giants, and White Sox look good as well. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Castillo paired with Gavin Williams. However, Michael Kopech can be played in place of Castillo, and Sean Manaea in place of Williams in GPPs.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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