Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is focused on the combo of Sonny Gray with Braves bats. Secondary stack ownership is falling on Twins, Astros, White Sox, and Dodgers. Secondary pitcher ownership is falling on Marcus Stroman, Christian Javier, and Shohei Ohtani.
- Christian Javier rates as the top pitcher in the models and comes at a slight ownership discount to Sonny Gray. Michael Grove, Sonny Gray, and Nathan Eovaldi rate as the best of the rest.
- The Rangers rate as the top stack in the models, and are leverage against chalk Ohtani. The Dodgers, Braves, Astros, and Pirates rate as the next best options.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Logan Allen, Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Boyd
Despite topping the Tru AVG chart, none of these Heroes necessarily stand out in projections. Allen and Boyd are cheap enough that they are viable SP2 options, however, Eovaldi at his price is hard to justify. That said, bats against these pitchers should be avoided.
Zeros: Marcus Stroman, Shohei Ohtani, Ryan Weathers
Marcus Stroman finds himself at the bottom of the list tonight, however, the weather in Chicago may limit the damage the Pirates are able to inflict. Ohtani has given it up at times but still has the K upside to avoid a true blowup. Lastly we have CLE, who aren’t world beaters, but have an advantageous matchup. All 3 matchups are likely better attacked with mini-stacks.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. These players can also be used as GPP one-offs in contrarian builds.
SP: Sonny Gray
1B: Alex Kiriloff
2B: Jose Altuve
3B: Jose Ramirez
SS: Chris Taylor
OF: Kevin Pillar
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Christian Javier
1B: Nelson Cruz
2B: Andres Gimenez
3B: Nick Madrigal
SS: Jeremy Pena
OF: Leody Taveras
DFS Stack Considerations
Rangers
Dodgers
Braves
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Starting with Javier and Braves makes sense in small field. You can utilize a handful of other options as secondary stacks to get different (TEX, PIT, and CLE). In large field the models support fading Shohei Ohtani and Twins. In addition to the top stacks, the Dodgers, Astros, Pirates, Pirates, Guardians, Cubs and Rockies are all viable options. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is Gray paired with Marcus Stroman. Not only should you fade Stroman, but the models support stacking against him. Paying down at SP2 to Allen/Boyd/Grove makes sense tonight.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
Powerful tools for every sport
One site, one affordable price
Join Free by signing up below for 3 days of full access!
- Make decisions using a players full range of outcomes, not just their median projection.
- Use actionable metrics based on leverage that help you identify mistakes the field is making and leverage them for your own success.
- Have access to experts in the field along with coaching opportunities to build your process.
- Jump in the Paydirt community discord and join conversations around your favorites sports all day, every day, for free.