Welcome to the MLB DFS Triple Play here at Paydirt! This is going to be a daily article aimed at giving thoughts and notes on three important aspects of the MLB DFS slate. This article is best used with the projections models here at Paydirt (Found here), but it will still be valuable even as a one off piece of content. While the focus is on Draftkings, the content is applicable to Fanduel as well.
DFS Slate Overview
- Slate ownership is sitting on deGrom, Grayson Rodriguez, and the Twins with some secondary ownership falling towards the Rangers and Orioles.
- There are actually a lot of interesting pitching options and a handful of pitchers with platoon advantages that are worth exploiting in GPPs.
- If people are going to fade the Rangers against this pathetic OAK pitching staff, it’s makes for a much more straight forward slate where you start with deGrom/Rangers and figure out how to fill in the rest.
Depending on the size of the slate, there may be multiple situations, value plays, and popular options that you need to consider. Join the Paydirt discord with this link for more updates and game theory on all the slates details: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
True AVG Heroes and Zeros
Heroes: Hunter Greene, Yu Darvish, Zach Eflin
Worth noting that two of these heroes, Yu Darvish and Zach Eflin, both have significant platoon advantages which raise their ceilings considerably.
Zeros: Bryan Bello*, Patrick Corbin, Corbin Burnes*
Bryan Bello has a very, very short sample here and while his True AVG numbers and regressive stats look bad, he has flashed a lot of upside and is not necessarily doomed to be awful. the other note here is Corbin Burnes is still greatly underperforming and toeing a line of disaster with low strikeout rates and coming regression. I’m cautiously optimistic for Bello and conservatively pessimistic of Burnes.
If you are interested in seeing all of the True AVG tables and metrics, along with other research oriented tables, you can find them here!
MLB Cash Game Core:
This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement.
SP: Jacob deGrom
1B: Donovan Solano
2B: Marcus Semien
3B: Josh Jung
SS: Carlos Correa
OF: Byron Buxton
MLB GPP Core:
This core of players will help you build in differentiation in your DFS lineups. These players are meant to be mixed in with some of the stronger chalk options. How many of these players you put in is dependent on the size of the field and personal risk tolerance.
SP: Hunter Greene
1B: Ryan Mountcastle
2B: Yu Chang
3B: Gunnar Henderson
SS: Bobby Witt Jr.
OF: Austin Hays
DFS Stack Considerations
Rangers
Twins
Orioles
MLB DFS Final Thoughts
Interestingly, people are looking to play the Twins against Corbin instead of the Rangers against Muller, even though the Rangers just laid 18 runs on the Athletics the night before. While overthinking is fun and can be a good thing to do when we are bored in life, it’s not really necessary here. Starting with the Rangers and utilizing a handful of other options (MIN, BAL, CIN, MIL to name a few) as secondary stacks is the easiest way to go at this slate. In large field contests, using TEX as a secondary in lieu of BAL/CIN makes the most sense to me. As far as pitching, the main combo people will use is going to be deGrom/Grayson, but the models like deGrom/Greene quite a bit more. Likewise, you can use Darvish, Eflin, or Luzardo without much concern. With a bevy of options, this makes for a strong GPP slate.
GL and let’s bake some bread!
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