What’s up everyone. Welcome to our first massive 14 game slate NHL of the year. There are a ton of different combinations to play and there are going to be a wide variety of paths to victory tonight. I’ll mention the standouts and give you a feel for where the Industry is ownership-wise. Then I’ll let you know on where sims are using multiple major models, where PD is at and where I’m at. There are few wrong answers on an NHL slate like this and many paths to winning – so here we go.
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Positional Overview
Center
- It looks pretty flat to me at C tonight. Industry consensus is nobody is really pulling away in ownership. If anybody does, it’s probably Larkin (6500) or MacKinnon (8500). That seems unlikely though. I have them low double digits as of now.
- Crosby (7200), Lindholm (5300), and Barzal (5800) probably get high single digits as well. You’ll also see some Marco Rossi (4000)
- Our model is bullish on Crosby and I agree. I think he (and PIT1) make a ton of sense for smaller field contests.
- Sims Industry-Wide are high on Lindholm, Suzuki (6100), and Kadri (5900). PD is aligned with the latter two, but very bearish on Lindholm. That’s not bad at all considering BOS1 is one of the two chalk stacks
- PD is very high on Sean Monahan (5600), but I’m a little apprehensive. I’ll go into why later.
- A couple favorites of mine are Sebastian Aho (5900), Jack Eichel (7800), Tomas Hertl (5200), Jiri Kulich (4300), and Sam Bennett (6300)
Synopsis: The chalk here will be Larkin, Crosby, and Lindholm. MacKinnon will be the most popular one-off (but maybe not popular enough). I think Crosby makes a ton of sense in smaller fields. There’s a ton of guys to play in large fields. Suzuki, Kadri, Kulich (4300), and Eichel are probably my favorites though.
Wing
- The chalk here is much more defined. Pastrnak (8400) is the chalk pay up at high-teens ownership and Finne (2600) is the chalk value at around 15%. The guys from PIT1 (Koivunen/Rakell) and MIN1 (Kaprizov/Boldy) are likely to get 10-12%. Anders Lee (5400) and Lucas Raymond (6300) around the same ownership. Lee is a great play and flat out underpriced. I’m fine with his ownership
- I’m fine with Pastrnak at high ownership. He sims very well regardless of what model you use. I’m more likely to be around the field or a little over in MME though. We have a very bullish projection on him and Kaprizov – so there’s reasons to play these guys at higher ownership. Kaprizov is definitely underpriced, but my sims are less enthusiastic about him.
- I am very high on Kucherov at a signifcant ownership discount from Pastrnak. He was a 10K skater at times last year. He’s great in a one-off or the TB1 stack.
- Brady Tkachuk (7100) and Tage Thompson (7300) are two guys with monster upside you can play at lower ownership. Tkachuk is going to shoot so much that it gives him a very high floor. I’m personally very high on these two guys. I also like Necas (6500), Lehkonen (5600), Dorofeyev (5900), Marner (6900), and Barbashev (4900).
- I am not falling for the Ponzi scheme that is the Nashville Predators. More on this later.
- Our models are big on Mason Marchment (4900), Jaden Schwartz (4700), Fabian Zetterlund (3800), and Jason Zucker (4400) just to name a few. There’s a ton more though. Just sort by 3 and 4x on the “player range of outcomes” page to find the rest
- The MTL3 guys (Bolduc, Gallagher) pop once again in our model. I agree. Detroit’s defense and penalty kill looks like hot garbage and maybe the worst in the NHL once again (sorry Karl).
- I think it’s fine to play Finne as a one-off if you want. There’s a defensemen at 2500 I’d rather punt with though and I’ll get to him later.
- My sims are high on Caufield (6900), Slafkovsky (4600), Thompson (7300), Pastrnak (8400), and Klapka (2900) to name a few.
Synopsis: We are high on Pastrnak and Kaprizov as spends with Marchment, Schwartz, Zetterlund, and Zucker as value guys. We’re also high on the PIT1 and CBJ1 guys. It’s fine to play Finne as a one-off, but I like it better in smaller fields. Overall, the Penguins and Kraken guys probably make the most sense for smaller fields according to our models. I’m extremely bullish on Pastrnak and everything MTL tonight. My sims are as well. Tkachuk, Kucherov, and Thompson look like strong contrarian spends. There’s a ton of guys I could mention, but use the tools let them guide you.
Defense
- Quinn Hughes (6800) looks like the clear chalk here at low 20s ownership. Cale Makar (7500) and Owen Power (4400) come in after him at around 15% for me.
- Our model is extremely bullish on Zach Werenski (7400). I will definitely be playing him, but I’ll outline my Blue Jackets concerns at the end. We are bullish on Rasmus Dahlin (6600) and I am as well. I love this spot for Buffalo and he looks significantly lower owned than Hughes, Makar, or Werenski. Great large field GPP play
- A couple cheap guys who really pop in our model are Niko Mikkola (2700), Damon Severson (3100), and K’Andre Miller (3400)
- Werenski (7400), Dahlin (6600) and Sam Rinzel (4100) are two guys who pop up in the PD sims for me. The guys who pop in Industry-wide sims are Lane Hutson (5100), John Klingberg (4200), and Charlie McAvoy (5000)
- A few of my favorites are Josh Morrissey (6700), Erik Karlsson (5700) and Roman Josi (7200). Josi is in a different pile than those other scam artists from Nashville.
- Zayne Parekh is now 2500. He is a generational prospect at defense. He scored 40+ goals and had over 100 points as a defensemen in the AHL last year. We do not know if he will be active, but there has been some speculation by Flames beat writers that they wanted a softer landing spot for him and are managing his minutes. We probably won’t know if he’s active until a half hour before the last game locks. If Parekh is a late active he is the best value on the slate by leaps and bounds. Leaving some late swap flexibility is a sharp thing to do in large field GPPs tonight. Parekh can absolutely score multiple goals.
Synopsis: Werenski looks great, but I’ll highlight my concerns. Q. Hughes, Makar, Dahlin, and Power all seem fine. Miller, Mikkola, and Severson are fine values. My top spends in large field tonight are Morrissey, Karlsson and Josi. Klingberg, McAvoy, and Hutson are all plays the sims like. I think leaving room for the late games is a sharp play. Parekh could definitely be the nuts and just have no ownership. He’s the best prospect in the NHL. Werenski, Makar, Hughes, Rinzel, Power, or any of the value guys I listed make sense for smaller fields. I think a more balanced approach to defensive salary allocation or a barbell one with Parekh/Hughes with some late swap flexibility make sense as contrarian options.
Goalies
- Demko (8500) and Bobrovsky (8300), and Vasilevsky (8200) look like the chalk guys at 12-15% each. Nobody else looks like they carry ownership.
- Our sims like the sharks goalie and Soderblom
- I do expect somewhat of a bounceback from Swayman this year. He was an elite goalie in ’23, but sat out part of last year with contract issues and never got on track. BOS’s defense was also crippled without Lindholm and McAvoy in the second half. They should be better this year. I think it’s possible models are underestimating Swayman Industry-wide
Synopsis: Sims like Soderblom and the sharks guy (Nedflanders or whatever his name is). Sharks guy is one of the NHL’s worst goalies in front of what looks like an awful defense. Demko, Bob, and Vasilevsky are the chalk. I’m putting a flat cap on my goalies for MME, but I’m not sure what it will be yet. I’ll drop it in chat. I’ll play whomever sims give me.
Stacks and Theory
- DET1 and BOS1 are the chalkiest lines of the night in the mid-teens. Pastrnak, Larkin, and Finne will be especially chalky.
- NYI2 and VAN2 look like the chalkiest secondary lines. PIT1 and MIN1 likely also garner low double digit ownership
- Pastrnak and Finne will be the chalkiest one-offs. I think there are plenty of good pivots off these guys though. If you want another cheap guy – Mike Eyssimont (2600) projects well in some spots and makes sense considering he’s on BOS3.
- Speculating on Parekh could pay off big. I’m not saying bank on it – have a backup plan if he’s inactive – but you could really get a big edge if he’s active. The price is absurd.
- Sims across the Industry are high on MTL1 and CGY1. Ours like CLS1, BUF1, the SJ goalie, and Pastrnak
- We like CLS and Werenski, but I do have my concerns. They were incredible last year, but definitely buoyed by some hot shooting. NSH is absolutely awful and almost as bad defensively as Detroit, but definitely expect some regression. No idea if it will be tonight though.
- Industry wide sims like Boston over the field across the board
- ALL NSH LINES ARE A CONSPIRACY PUT FORTH BY THE DFS DEEP STATE TO STEAL YOUR MONEY. IT IS MY DUTY TO EXPOSE THEIR NEFARIOUS PLOT. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
- In smaller fields you see quite a bit of TB1 and PIT1 across the Industry. I really do like TB1 and WPG1 as contrarian plays. MTL2, CGY1, or CGY3 make sense as filler lines
- Our NHL Sims like the Sharks guy (Nedleflanders or whatever)
- My Personal strongest plays of the slate are MTL1 and 3, VGK1 and 3, CAR1 and TB1. CBJ1, TB1, and STL2 also look good
NHL Sims strongly suggest that BOS1 and MTL1 are strong plays here regardless of field size or entry format. They like McAvoy and Hutson while being pretty flat at G. My observations from the slate are 1) having late swap options available to pounce on the potential Parekh value is a sharp play 2) Pastrnak is great, but any of Kucherov/Thompson/Tkachuk are strong contrarian plays 3) I think MTL is a sharp play on the other side of DET chalk. It’s a super high variance game, but DET’s defense and penalty kill are likely to both still be awful 4) I think Vegas is a sharp play. My sense is they’re getting a downgrade because they played last night and the sharks are supposed to be better. Caring about a B2B in the first week of the year seems….strange. These guys are NHL professionals and work out in the offseason. Their bodies are at their freshest and nobody seems to care that BOS played last night. Additionally, the Sharks added Orlov and Klingberg. These guys have both been bad for awhile before a few good months last year apiece.Vegas looks super strong to me.