Welcome to Friday’s NHL slate. We’ve got a four-gamer tonight – so let’s get into it.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So the clear chalk here is WPG1 (Schiefele/Connor/Perfetti) at 26% owned. They’re facing this Anaheim team that looks as dreadful defensively as I imagined and also pushed the pace. Kyle Connor will be well over 30% here and it’s warranted. He’s had a phenomenal start to the season. These guys are playing a boatload of minutes, fully correlated on the power play, and in a great spot. I do think being without Josh Morrissey hurt the puck movement for this line and they aren’t that good at even strength over a large sample – but they deserve the ownership.
- It looks like the chalk pairing with WPG1 will be CBJ1 (Fantilli/Knies/Johnson). If I’m picking between the pieces of the chalk build – I think I’m siding with WPG1 over CBJ1 – but only because I can play CBJ2 (Monahan/Nichushkin/Voronkov) for half the ownership.
- There’s a few other lines also catching 18-20% ownership – and it starts with DET1 (Larkin/Arvidsson/Raymond) and DET2 (Finnie/DeBrincat/Brandseg-Nygaard). They’re facing SEA coming off a strong performance the other night. Do we see their ownership deflate a bit in favor of CBJ1? That’s what I’m thinking at the moment. They have some very strong projections and this SEA team is not much to fear defensively. The third line is ANH1 (Carlsson/Gauthier/Greer) against WPG. Carlsson and Gauthier have obviously been great dating back to last year. The Jets are a good defensive team at home with a competant goalie in Clay Stevenson. I think that game is going to be decided on the power play to an extent – so I think I’d prefer to just go with the ANH PP and add Sennecke.
- There’s two contrarian teams I’ll discuss tonight and the first one is Pittsburgh. This team is going to generate offense and be terrible defensively. I’m not a big believer in this Columbus team defensively – and I certainly not an old fossil like Cam Talbot. PIT2 (Novak/Malkin/Chinakov) looks like one of the stronger plays of the slate to me. PIT3 (Rust/Kindel/Koivunen) looks solid on the cheap end. I’ll never tell someone to not play PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/LaPierre) either. If you need a cheap two-man – I think you can go to Robertson/Dewar as well. Nick Robertson can really shoot the puck and he’s super cheap.
- The second team I’ll mention in Washington. They’re facing Igor Shesterkin in New York – so the ownership is pretty muted. This team has been an absolute wagon so far though. They’ve cut through Carolina and Pittsburgh like a hot knife through butter and they go four lines deep. WSH1 (Tuch/Wilson/Dubois) have a little ownership – but not enough to concern me. WSH2 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier) has been a strong line dating back to last year and they look good here today at under 3%. I’m not sure if the Rangers will hard match Fox/Gavrikov with a given line – because all 4 of Washington’s line are good. WSH4 (Leonard/Jenner/Sourdif) is actually the 3rd line by minutes so far – so I like them as a super low owned large field flier as well. These guys and PIT both make strong contrarian plays tonight.
- I do think a SEA Power Play stack is viable in larger fields tonight. This Detroit PK is probably going to be dreadful. We’ve seen Copp and Rasmussen play together a lot. I’m not buying they’re somehow good defensively after being a turnstile for multiple years lol.
- It’s a 4-gamer, so you can really play anyone. You can obviously play the 7-9% owned stuff like ANH2, SEA1, NYR1, and NYR2 if that’s who you like. After WPG1, ANH1, CBJ1, and the top 2 Detroit lines it’s pick your poison.
In smaller NHL fields: I think you just pick 1 of WPG1 or CBJ1. Pair them with Detroit and go to contrarian defensemen or plug in one of WSH1/PIT2. I think ANH1/PP is fine as well – but you’ll have to finesse ANH1/CBJ1 a bit.
In large NHL fields: I really like WSH and PIT as contrarian plays. WSH1 and PIT2 would be my first choices – but PIT1, PIT3, WSH2, and WSH4 are all viable options here. I think larger stacks of basically anyone that isn’t DFetroit are probably pretty strong here as well. I definitely think there’s an avenue where this ANH/WPG game is lower scoring if the Jets get to play it their way.
NHL Defensemen
- Zack Werenski (7800) and Neal Pionk (3900) are the chalk at 25-30% each. No issues there. Dylan Samberg (3300) being almost unowned playing opposite Pionk is an intriguing pivot. Werenski just laps the field in raw points. Mo Seider (6800), Jackson LaCombe (5500), Justin Faulk (3600), and Erik Karlsson (5400) are 15-18% each. I’m just not playing Justin Faulk at ownership. Hard pass.
- Damon Severson (3300), Mario Ferraro (3000), Vladislav Gavrikov (3100), and Declan Carlile (3100) are cheap guys to look at here
- I definitely like Vince Dunn (5100) and Brandon Montour (5300)
Ownership doesn’t really matter here outside of Pionk and Werenski. Justin Faulk is definitely overowned though. There are a ton of cheap options. It’s a total crapshoot with these non-PP depth defensemen. It’s just not the spot to eat ownership imo.
NHL Goalies
- I suspect Igor Shesterkin (7100) is the chalk here. The price is just too cheap and the name value is too high.
- I have no issue going to Joey Daccord (7200) here – but I’d be less enthused about Grubauer. The same goes for Lukas Dostal (7400). I also like the idea of playing Logan Thompson opposite Igor – but he is expensive.
- Confirmed: Shesterkin (NYR), Thompson (WSH), Talbot (CBJ), Murashov (PIT), Gibson (DET)
- Unconfirmed: Daccord (SEA), Dostal (ANH), Stevenson (WPG)
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I like this slate. There is definitely a path to the ANH/WPG game being 3-2. I don’t really think any of the chalky lines are all that bad. However, I’ve long said how reliant WPG is on the power play – and losing Josh Morrissey is a big blow to it.
- I think the CBJ/PIT could be an absolute shitshow. I really like the PIT side here – especially PIT2. I have no objection to game stacking that one. Washington is the other team I think is underowned.
- We have a lot of good defensemen and a lack of many strong value skaters. You can absolutely play three defensemen here – although I think Rust, Arvidsson, and Charlie Coyle are strong value skaters. Nick Robertson, Kappo, Kakko, Shane Wright, Connor Dewar, Will Cuylle, Alex Iafallo, and Conor Garland are a few cheap guys I like as contrarian plays.
- You can definitely fade Pionk here. Ferraro and Samberg will both play a bunch too.
We’ve got about 5 lines with double digit ownership and everything else is pretty low or under-owned. This makes for a really strong large field slate. The field is expressing a lot of certainty – and they’ve been right most of the time so far. That, Sims, and the size of the slate will lead to some concentrated ownership that isn’t likely to be reflected of the true odds. Great slate to embrace some strong contrarian plays from PIT, WSH, and SEA. There’s way more volatility to this ANH/WPG game than the field thinks.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm