Welcome to an 11-game NHL slate where almost everything is underpriced. There’s 11 games, so I’m not going to mention everything. I’m just going to stick to what’s really important. There’s a ton to get to, so lets get to it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
- There’s a lack of consensus around the industry as to the chalk tonight. However, my inclination is to believe it’s a NJ PP stack (Hughes/Bratt/Hischier) with Hamilton at Defense. It’s difficult to pin down what exactly the ownership will be, but my guess is 15% in large field and around 20% in smaller fields. Everybody loves attacking the sharks, the public has a positive percepion of New Jersey, and there’s a ton of value.
- My guess is that we get a glut of lines around 10%. CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Ehlers) and WPG1 (Schiefele/Connor/Vilardi) are in this group on the expensive end. MIN1 (Rossi/Johansson/Kaprizov) and DAL2 (Robertson/Johnston/Bourque) are there in the mid-tier. EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Roslovic) and CGY1 (Kadri/Huberdeau/Frost) are there in the low-mid tier. CGY1 and MIN1 look like pretty strong plays
- Andrei Svechnikov (3400) is likely to be very popular, but I love CAR3 (Staal/Martinook/Svechnikov). The other two guys project well and likely have no ownership. That line was excellent when they played together a couple years ago* and the 9K price is completely stupid.
- There are a ton of lines under 12K that are underpriced tonight. PD loves CAR3, STL1 (Snuggerud/Schenn/Buchnevich), NYI3 (Lee/Pageau/Holmstrom), and BUF3 (Zucker/Quinn/Greenway) just to name a few.
- PD also loves NSH1 (Forsberg/O’Reilly/Wood). The model has cried wolf on these guys for too long. Pass.
- Some outlets have SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith) with high ownership, but I don’t agree. I like them quite a bit here. PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Hallander), MIN2 (Boldy/Eriksson EK/Tarasenko), LAK1 (Kopitar/Kempe/Kuzmenko), and VAN1 (only if it’s Petterson/DeBrusk with Boeser or Sherwood) all look like strong plays at lower ownership.
- The most interesting teams – but not the best (CAR) – on this slate are PHI and OTT. PHI has 3 playable lines – two project as strong values and one is fully PP correlated. I just have no idea what to do with them as of now. You can always play PHI2 (Foerster/Cates/Brink) at 12.1K though. They look like a strong value. Ottawa is the same, but the first line looks much worse than PHI1. I think they’re in a very real blow up spot against Calgary though.
Synopsis: I think NJ is the clear chalk here, but it’s a big slate. Ownership is less important, but the Sharks haven’t been a trash fire defensively* via expected goals/60 or shot attempts/60 this year. I definitely prefer CAR1 or WPG1 to NJ1 dsepite the higher price tags. We have tons of value to play these more expensive lines. You can Ignore it and just play a balanced build, but I think you can get creative here. I really like PIT1, MIN2, and SJ1 as contrarian lines here. The clear top value lines to me are CAR3, OTT2, OTT3, and PHI2.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- There’s a few one-offs I really like. Nazem Kadri (5900) and Andrei Svechnikov (3400) will both be popular, but they’re underpriced. Shane Pinto (5000), Jordan Kyrou (5600), Nikolaj Ehlers (5800), Anders Lee (5000), and Matvei Michkov (4800) look like excellent one-offs tonight
- Blake Coleman (4200) and Alex Laferriere (4100) are two guys that shoot a ton and will have little-to-no ownership because they aren’t on the PP. They look like great one-offs to me.
- The chalk build will likely have a Svechnikov-type one-off built into it. I think Kiefer Sherwood (3700), Josh Doan (3600) Claude Giroux (3100), Justin Brazeau (3000), Fabian Zetterlund (2800) and Marat Khustnutdinov (2500) are fine.
- James and I both believe that one of the biggest inefficiencies in NHL DFS is the field’s obsession with the Power Play. You should not be playing Oskar Sundkvist (2500) or David Tomasek (2900) just because they are on the PP. It makes sense from a fantasy hockey perspective, but from a DFS perspective these are often -EV plays with poor probabilities. There are too many guys who project well on this slate to play cheap guys who project badly. Just play guys who project well (Olofsson did on Tuesday)
NHL Defense
- Dougie Hamilton (6400) is the clear chalk at probably 20% owned. There’s more than enough value, so you can just play him I guess. He’s expensive and it’s a big slate though. It’s reasonable to fade him in larger fields. Sean Walker (4300) is the other chalk defensemen here. There’s a ton of guys in this range who project well. Playing 15-17% Sean Walker seems pretty shaky.
- James and I both believe that the ownership gap between PP defensemen and everyone else is something that can be exploited. The ownership different has gotten way out of hand. This is a great slate to take advantage of suppressed ownership on guys like Colton Parayko (4500), Kris Letang (3800), Jake Walman (4900), Darnell Nurse (4800), Rasmus Anderssen (4300), and Tony DeAngelo (3400). PD likes all these guys except Letang (I like him)
- PD likes Rasmus Dahlin (6700) quite a bit. I agree with that. I’d rather play him than Tage Thompson on a slate with this kind of offensive depth. I like paying up for two defensemen or playing two cheaper guys from the above pile a lot tonight
- If you want cheap guys to play, I’d look at Vancouver. Filip Hronek (3700) and Marcus Petterson (2800) are both playing a metric ton with Quinn Hughes out.
- I really like the idea of playing Draisaitl/Nurse/Walman here.
- Rasmus Anderssen is an awesome play. Play Rasmus Anderssen
Synopsis: Hamilton is fine as chalk, but Dahlin is a strong pivot. I think Sean Walker is pretty shaky. Aho runs that PP. Walker does not have the same skill set as Gostisbehere. I’d much rather play a non-PP guy who shoots the puck and plays 23-25 minutes like Rasmus Anderssen, Darnell, Nurse, or Jake Walman in all formats. Erik Karlsson (4800) or Brady Skjei (4300) would be my favorite pivots off Walker if you just want to play someone on the PP.
Goalies
- I have no idea how to project goalie ownership at this point. My guess is Connor Hellebuyck (8500) will be the chalk at around 15%, but I say that with no conviction
- I guess whomever starts for the Penguins (7200) is my favorite guy on the cheap end, but those guys have all been getting inflated ownership this year. Thatcher Demko (7400) and Jake Oettinger (7500) also seem fine.
- PD Likes Dan Vladar (8000), and Ukka-Pekka Luukonnen. I’m not playing a guy with that many consonants in his name.
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I feel pretty confident the field leans on NJ PP guys here as chalk. They don’t project that well, but the Kings were 8-10% owned in large field with Dogshit projections the other night.
- Our sheets and projections like MIN1, NSH1, and CGY1 for a value perspective.
- There’s too many cheap lines that project well – and we like – to list. My favorites are PHI2, PHI3, OTT2, OTT3, and CAR3
- I like CAR1 on the expensive end. The players are all in the 5-6Ks as opposed to WPG1 which has Connor at 7.8K. The most +EV thing to do is avoiding these super expensive skaters. They don’t hit ceilings at much higher rates than guys 1500-2000 cheaper. James has discussed this extensively and I agree.
- I definitely like spending up at both defense spots to Dahlin and Hamilton here. Otherwise, I think exploiting the cheap, non-PP defensemen who shoot a lot and project well is a strong tactic here.
- I tend to believe the field over-correlates when we get a larger, more loosely priced slate like this. I like leaning more toward projection here as opposed to forcing correlation at the expensive of it. I wouldn’t be afraid of 3-2-2-1 builds here if they project much better. There’s some games on this slate with crazy volatility (PIT/MIN, OTT/CGY, BOS/BUF) to draw from.
- I don’t think the 5 and 6-man stacks are necessary here, but I wouldn’t avoid them if they sim/project well. I’d stick to the more volatile games mentioned above if doing so
NHL Synopsis
I wouldn’t be super worried about ownership, but NJ may be way overowned here. They just don’t project that well and the Sharks just haven’t been as bad as the surface numbers reflect.
In smaller fields, I don’t think you need to be super fancy. CAR1 looks like the strongest play. I just wouldn’t play Walker. Just play Karlsson or – even better – somebody who projects well and isn’t on the PP. You can either pay up for both defensemen or play one of the many cheap lines like OTT2/OTT3/PHI2 for example. WPG1 is also an alternative to CAR1. CGY1 is also fine here. It just seems like you’re ignoring a lot of value by playing CGY1/MIN1. I know MIN1 projects really well, but I think that first line stinks. I also really like the idea of playing Draisaitl/Nurse/Walman on this slate. There’s just so much wing value to exploit
In larger fields, you can play whatever you want. I still think New Jersey and Svechnikov/Walker combos will be over-owned though. I would encourage you to take advantage of the massive ownership discrepencies between PP and non-PP skaters here. This is especially true at defense. I think Draisaitl/Nurse/Walman is an awesome example. PIT1, SJ1, MIN2, LAK1, and VAN1 are a few of my favorite primary large field plays. OTT2, OTT3, PHI2, PHI3, CAR3 and STL1 all stand out as cheap lines. I would also consider lessening correlation in favor of projection.
In conclusion, look at where the value is. Follow it. There’s no need to jam poorly projected plays because they’re correlated or on the PP. Stop playing Poorly projected guys like Oskar Sundqvist and David Tomasek. Play the well projected stuff.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm