Welcome to This Frozen Fuckery of a 16-game NHL slate. There’s going to be a ton of low owned plays tonight. I will not mention them all – just my absolute favorites. There’s a ton to get to, so lets get to it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 2 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
- We have some pretty clear chalk at the top here in NHL DFS tonight – it’s FLA1 (Rodrigues/Verhaege/Reinhart) at an astronomical 17-20% for this slate. It probably ends up around that in large field and low 20s in small field. The Industry seems to think that the highest owned pairings with them will be DAL2 (Johnston/Robertson/Bourque) and SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith) at around 15% each with a hige drop off after that. However, I expect some combination of Kings – most likely Kopitar/Kempe/Fiala) to be around 10% owned as well. The field just always picks on San Jose in large field – regardless of projection – and I’ll believe that until there’s evidence to the contrary. This season there is none.
- The chalk cheap line will be FLA2 (Lundell/Samoskevich/Luostarainen) at around 10%. I don’t see any other line getting 8% that isn’t LAK2 (Byfield/Fiala/Laferriere)
- Adrian Kempe (6900) will be a popular guy to pair with Byfield/Fiala as well. However, I don’t expect the field to play Kopitar/Kempe/Kuzmenko or Danault/Moore/whomever. LAK3 is one of my favorite plays of the night
- PD once again likes CBJ1 (Monahan/Voronkov/Marchenko). They’ve generated a ton of shot attempts so far (75/60 minutes) and seem like a strong play at their price. We also like STL2 (Schenn/Kyrou/Holloway) and CBJ2 (Fantilli/Johnson/Jenner). They seem fine.
- PD is also on board with my three favorite lines of the night – CGY1 (Kadri/Huberdeau/Frost), ANH2 (Vatrano/McTavish/Sennecke), and STL2 (Schenn/Kyrou/Holloway). It’s always good to play the top line against the chalk goalie (Stolarz) or team. All these project very well, but I’m bearish on the Ducks without Granlund. We also like STL1 – and I like them as well. Suter and Jimmy Snuggles have been good together and Snuggles/Buchnevich are on the PP together. You could certainly get two goals out of them at sub-11K and be in a great spot.
- My favorite team of the night is probably the Flyers. PHI1 and PHI2 both look great against this porous Penguins defense and are also top 5 in our expected goals model – https://wp.paydirtdata.com/paywalled-content/nhl-team-matchups-and-line-marketshares/
- Beyond the Flyers, I definitely like WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi), BUF1 (Thompson/Kulich/Benson), BUF2 (McLeod/Tuch/Zucker) and VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Marner). Minnesota has been awful at even strength and this is just a high ceiling spot for WPG1. VGK2 is interesting. Mitch Marner is no longer on the PP, so you can play Eichel instead if you want. Carolina has really been struggling on the PK – epsecially near the net – and Tomas Hertl playing net front on the PP is primed to take advantage. Dorofeyev should also see increased usage on the PP without Marner. The Columbus Penalty Kill and depth lines have been absolutely awful this year. I expect the field to be on both sides of that game, but BUF looks like the lower owned side to me. I want to be on that
Synopsis: FLA1 looks like the clear chalk at 17-23% depending on the field size. They’ll be 15-17% in large field and higher in small field. I don’t think they’re a super strong play though. Florida just hasn’t generated a ton of quality shot attempts and the Ducks have a bit better this year. DAL2 and SJ1 both project as strong plays around the Industry. The Kings do not – but that just doesn’t seem to suppress ownership on anyone facing the Sharks. I’m not sure what to do with them overall. I definitely like LAK1 and LAK3 on paper though. PD likes CBJ, ANH, and STL2. I like VGK2/WPG1 in larger fields and PHI1/PHI2 in all fields.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- There’s a few one-offs I really like. Tage Thompson (8100) leads the NHL in shot attempts/60. At 2-3% ownership, I love him despite the fact that we shouldn’t be playing these expensive guys as one-offs. The field does not play mid-range guys as one-offs enough – and in that Spirit I really like Owen Tippett (6000), Jordan Kyrou (6100), Ryan Donato (4900), and Shane Pinto (5000). Tomas Hertl (5600) is in a great spot as net front guy on the Vegas PP. If you’re too beta to play CGY on ANH you could play Nazem Kadri (6100) as a one-off
- On the low end, I’m going to buy low on Andrei Svechnikov (3500). He’s been awful, but we’ve seen stretches where he has been a Dominant force in the NHL over the past few years. Josh Doan (3600) is also in a great spot as the net front guy against this awful Columbus Penalty Kill and depth line defense. PD likes Frank Vatrano (3700) and I do as well. Mackie Samoskevich (3500), Nic Robertson (2800, only if no Nylander), and Alex Iafallo (3800) are three cheap PP guys for you fetishists.
NHL Defense
- The Industry has Cale Makar (7400), Morgan Reilly (5200), Brady Skjei (3700), Aaron Ekblad (4600), and Timothy Liljegren (3500) all around 10%. Ekblad and Liljegren will not get that kind of ownership. They aren’t on the PP. I would expect Seth Jones (4700), Brady Skjei (3700), and Filip Hronek (3700) to be some of the cheap PP guys the industry concentrates around. Nobody is going to be even 15% owned though.
- It is finally Zayne Parekh (3500) day folks. The Flames put him on PP1, Stolarz is the chalk in goal, and the field probably won’t be that high on him – especially in smaller fields. Fire him up.
- PD likes Zach Werenski (8000) quite a bit. I do as well. He’s a better large field play than small field though. We don’t see the suppressed ownership on expensive d-men in small field.
- Three guys that myself and PD both like are Colton Parayko (4500), Thomas Chabot (4700), and Jake Walman (4900). The field has gone too far toward PP defensemen and I think it’s time to swing back the other way and take advantage of ownership.
Synopsis: The field will jam the cheap PP guys in Jones, Skjei, Hronek, and Orlov. I’d expect ownership on Werenski and Makar in larger fields. I’m firing up Zayne Parekh – especially with my Flames stacks. I think taking advantage of the field refusing to play non-PP defensemen will be a sharp move going forward. Chabot, Walman, and Parayko are just a few of the guys I like.
Goalies
- Anthony Stolarz (8500) is the chalk here at probably 15%. We could see him go higher due to the FLA2 ownership and all the cheap PP defensemen though. Andrei Vasilevsky (7500) projects well industry-wide and probably gets double digits as well.
- Connor Hellebuyck (7400) is against MIN, they’ve been trash at even strength, and they’re throwing low quality shots on net. Alex Lyon (8200) is also in a good spot against this CBJ team that shoots a bunch. Those are just two dudes who stand out, but play whomever. I have no fucking idea who will do well.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The field is going to play FLA1 (17-23%) with one of DAL2 or SJ1 (15%/ea). I suspect that CLS1 gets to around 10% as well. People have a poor opinion of BUF and love playing CLS. I’m torn on the Kings. They project poorly, but the SJ matchup gives every team a huge bump in ownership. I’m just not sure any of their lines get even 7-8% – especially in smaller field.
- Our sheets and projections like CLS 1 value-wise. They also really like STL2, STL1, NSH1, ANH2, PHI1/2, and CGY1
- Stolarz looks like the pretty clear chalk in net. There’s salary to pay for him and people think the flames suck (they do). However, that makes CGY1 the sicko play of the night. I love them and they’re fully correlated on the PP with Uber-Prospect Zayne Parekh finally running it.
- I like WPG1 and VGK2 on the expensive end, BUF1/LAK1/PHI1/BUF2 in the mid-tier, and LAK3/PHI2/CAR3 on the cheap end. You can just play Danault/Moore on LAK3 and one-off someone else. I’m not sure who even plays in that 3rd spot – if it’s even anyone consistently. Great way to play one of my mid-tier one-offs. I am more bearish on ANH with Granlund out. He’s so important as a distributor on their PP – and that’s where they’ve really been doing work.
- I don’t think the 5 and 6-man stacks are necessary here, but I wouldn’t avoid them if they sim/project well.
- I definitely like spending up at defense in large field. I suspect people lean toward paying for expensive one-off skaters like Kempe, MacKinnon, Matthews, etc over Makar and Werenski. That does not provide as much of an edge In smaller field.
- Stolarz and Vasilevsky look like the chalk in net. The goalie ownership will concentrate more on them in smaller field though. I expect it to be pretty flat with those two guys being like 15% instead of 20-25% in smaller fields.
NHL Synopsis
There aren’t really any spots I’d worry about ownership per se. I do think FLA1 is overowned and the Anaheim matchup isn’t as good as it was last year. I expect the Kings to be owned, but I really do like LAK1 in smaller fields. That line is just really good and structured in a great way for Kempe to drag the cheap guys along. There will be ownership on both sides of CBJ/BUF as well, but I like both sides. Calgary is my favorite play of the slate. Fully correlated on the PP with a cheap, high-ceiling prospect running it and no ownership against the chalk goalie sounds great to me. You can go with the balanced build in smaller fields, but I think WPG1 and VGK2 have a lot of potential in larger fields as well. I think both STL lines are super interesting in all fields as well.
In conclusion, if you want to attack the sharks at reasonable ownership, this is the slate for you. I think you can do that in smaller fields. In larger fields I think PHI1, BUF PP, CGY1 for balanced builds. I also like WPG1 and VGK2/PP as lines to pair with cheaper ANH or CBJ2. Werenski, Chabot, Parayko, and Walman look great on defense.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm