Welcome to our last big NHL slate of the week!
I’m going to change this up a bit. I don’t think talking about sims early in the day provides much value, so I’ll be dropping those in discord an hour or so before lock. This article is going to focus more on industry-wide projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in discord. so please check back. This is all as of 1 pm PT.
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
Chalk
- The Industry is somewhat divided on where ownership goes at some points, but there’s a pretty strong consensus that VGK2 (Hertl, Marner, Dorofeyev) will be the chalk at 15-18%. It’s fully correlated on the PP, projects well industry-wide, and is very affordable at 17.9. Pavel Dorofeyev (W, 6100) also continues to be underpriced. VGK1 (Eichel, Stone, Barbashev) will also have significant ownership.
- There’s also a pretty strong consensus that OTT2 (Cozens, Batherson, Perron) will be borderline chalk – although I think that will be more true of a Cozens/Batherson/Sanderson stack. Perron should only see high single digits as opposed to the other guys’ mid-teens ownership. The Batherson price is one of the three stupid ones on the slate, but he’s hard to play as a one-off due to the prices of his line mates
- DAL2 and EDM2 are also seen as likely to have low-to-mid teens ownership. Johnston/Robertson/Hintz will likely carry as much ownership as DAL2. Same goes for Draisaitl/RNH/Tomasek as EDM2
- One of the spots where we see significant disagreement is on the ownership of the LA Kings – specifically LAK1 (Kopitar, Kempe, Kuzmenko) and LAK2 (Byfield/Fiala/Armia). Some outlets have both lines with ownership in the mid-teens and some have LAK2 with high single digits and LAK1 with low single digits. Per usual, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. I suspect that Anze Kopitar (4800) being a true GTD will suppress the ownership on LAK1. This makes them a very strong play at home against this Penguins first line that is happy to play at a high pace and trade chances (in the NHL sense). The price is also solid at 16.7. If Kopitar happens to not play, my guess is he will be replaced by Philip Danault (4200) or Quinton Byfield (4900). LAK3 (Danault/Moore/Foegele) also seems like a reasonable play at 13.1. This seems like a strong spot for a 5 or 6-man stack given the prices of the players.
- PD likes DAL2, LAK2, and EDM2 as strong values
- The Toronto Maple Leafs have two lines in TOR1 (Matthews/Knies/Cowan) and TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli) that likely carry moderate ownership. They don’t project super special Industry-Wide, but they make a solid spot for a 5 or 6-man stack as well. However – despite the Rangers have been an absolute trash fire to start the year – Igor is having a strong season so far.
Synopsis: The only line here that seems to have ownership that far outweighs it’s probability is EDM2. They’re in a decent spot against the Islanders, but I just have no confidence that line stays intact if they don’t score early. There are just too many options for me to be enthusiastic about them. I think the ownership on VGK2 is high for a slate this size – and a matchup that I’m less excited about than the field. They seem fine since you can punt a D spot with a well-projected Ben Hutton (3200) at low ownership if you want. I don’t have a problem with any of these lines. I doubt that LAK1 has that much ownership though, so I think they’re an outstanding pivot off EDM2 in all fields. LAK, DAL, and TOR overstacks are also firmly in play.
Contrarian
- My three favorite expensive lines on the slate are PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell), COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) and WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi). They all have extremely high ceilings and are great ways to play OTT2 or another cheap line. We have some dumb prices to exploit tonight and this is a great way to do it.
- In the mid-tier I like NSH1 (Forsberg/O’Reilly/Stamkos), SEA1 (McCann/Beniers/Eberle), PHI1 (Konecny/Michkov/Couturier), and CBJ1 (Monahan, Marchenko, Johnson). They’re all fully correlated on the PP and don’t carry the ownership of a VGK2/DAL2/EDM2/TOR1
- On the cheaper end I like LAK3 (Danault/Foegele/Moore), PHI3 (Tippett/Zegras/Dvorak), SEA2 (Wright/Marchment/Tolvanen), and CAR2 (Stankoven/Hall/Blake). All of these project worse than OTT2, but make fine pivots. If the Flyers ever crack the Trevor Zegras code – watch out. He used to be really good and Zegras/Tippett has a chance to be a high shot volume line with scoring potential.
- If you’re dumpster diving I like TOR3 (Domi/Robertson/McCann) quite a bit. OTT3 (Pinto/Giroux/Greig), VGK3 (Karlsson/Smith/Saad) and MTL3 (Dach/Bolduc/Gallagher) all look like strong plays at 1-2% owned.
- On the contrarian end, PD really likes CBJ1, NSH1, OTT3, MTL3, and VGK3
Synopsis: Overall, I like the lower owned lines that are fully correlated on the PP tonight. There’s quite a few of them to choose from. NSH1 and CBJ1 would be my favorites for all fields. We project them extremely well
F/C One-offs
- At Wing Drake Batherson has a silly price. Pavel Dorofeyev and Jason Robertson also underpriced. If you want a cheap PP1 punt, David Tomasek (3200) is your guy
- At C Sean Couturier (4300) and Roope Hintz (6000) are also underpriced. If you want a cheap guy, the corpse of Jonathan Toews (3000) is playing hockey again for some reason.
Synopsis: A Pastrnak one-off is a phenomenal leverage play. There are plenty of bad prices to exploit as well. I’m less enthusiastic about playing Batherson without Cozens though. Those guys are just both too cheap to be very likely to win as a one-off.
Defense
- Jake Sanderson (5900), Jackson LaCombe (5000), and Dougie Hamilton (5600) are the chalkiest guys at about 12-15% each.
- Roman Josi (7100), Cale Makar (7900) and Zach Werenski (8000) are all low-to-mid single digits in ownership, but look great to me.
- Sean Walker (3700), Shayne Gostisbehere (4500), and Brant Clarke (4400) look like the high single digit owned guys in the mid-tier
- Miro Heiskanen (5400), Vince Dunn (5300), Brandon Montour (5600), and Erik Karlsson (5500) are all sub-5% and look great.
- 2025 #1 overall pick in the NHL Draft Matthew Schaefer (5200) has been shooting the puck an outrageous amount early on. He looks great at literally zero ownership.
- Erik Karlsson, Noah Dobson, Brant Clarke, and Darnell Nurse are a few of the PD favorites
- Miro Heiskanen (5400), Mike Reilly (2500), and Cam York (2700) are all underpriced and are great at less than chalk
Synopsis: Sanderson, LaCombe, Hamilton, and maybe Bouchard look like the chalky guys here. Mike Reilly is the clear chalk value guy. I think this is a great spot to be different tonight in all fields. There’s a ton of guys in all price ranges that look great. If I had to pick someone from each tier it would be Roman Josi, Matthew Schaefer, and Cam York. I’m less enthusiastic about the chalk here than anywhere else.
Goalies
- Goalie ownership looks pretty flat. Jake Allen (7900) , Anthony Stolarz (7800), Stuart Skinner (8000), and Jakub Dobes (8000) look like they’re all low double digits. If anyone seperates ownership-wise it’ll be Stolarz. The Rangers have been complete dogshit.
- The Jeremy Swayman (6900) price is stupid. He’s one of the best goalies in the world. He’s not confirmed, but they’ve been alternating and it’s his turn.
- It’s always possible that Elvis Merzlikins (7200), Juuse Saros (7400), Philip Grubauer (7500) or Arturs Silovs (7100) just stand on their head. All 4 of their teams allow a ton of shots on net.
- Jake Allen projects the best at PD.
- He’s off to a bad start, but Connor Hellyebuyck (7800) is the best goalie in the world. A few bad games doesn’t outweigh the two Vezina and one NHL MVP that he’s won in the last two seasons.
Synopsis: PD likes Jake Allen and so does the field. I think Swayman is the top play by a fair amount and I love pairing him with Pastrnak. Beyond that
“Just play whoever you want” – Jordan Cooper
NHL Stacks and Theory
- VGK2/OTT2 looks like the highest owned thing to me.
- It’s hard to really pin down roster construction leverage on a slate like this. I’d just say that I’m less enthusiastic about VGK2 and EDM2 based on the ownership I see
- It’s tough to gauge the Kings ownership, but I suspect LAK1 will have suppresed ownership due to Kopitar’s unknown status. I like any Kings line – but especially that one
- You can really play anything here. my personal favorites (besides LAK1) are PIT1/WPG1/COL1 on the high end, NSH1/CBJ1/SEA1/PHI1 in the mid-tier, and OTT3/PHI3/MTL3/SEA2 on the low-to-cheap end. TOR3 is my choice if I’m dumpster diving.
- The dumb prices on this slate are Drake Batherson, Mike Reilly, Cam York, and Jeremy Swayman. Honorable mention to Pavel Dorofeyev.
- I definitely think it makes sense to play an expensive line tonight. PIT1, WPG1, and COL1 probably have the highest ceilings and there’s plenty of good cheap lines to play. CAR1 is in a great spot, but the scoring is so spread out with them. I like them substantially less.
- The high end defensemen in Werenski, Josi, and Makar all look great. There’s plenty of guys in the mid-tier I like as well. I am not enthusiastic about the chalk at defense. I think the pool is too deep to be eating that today.
- I think the COL/CBJ game has a chance for serious fireworks. So does the PIT/LAK game. Those are the games I’d be looking hard at for you smaller field or SE players.
- The Swayman price is stupid, but there are a ton of goalies. I definitely like the ceiling of the low end guys more than the high end – especially for large field. Stu Skinner and Jake Allen are the “safe” plays (and I mean that very sarcastically. there are none in NHL DFS)
- I’ll post the NHL sims in discord about an hour before lock
Conclusion
NHL slates of this size are usually pretty wide open and that’s true here as well. You can certainly play chalky stuff and my favorite of it is probably Dallas PP or the Kings. There’s definitely merit to the expensive lines (COL1, PIT1, WPG1) and expensive defensemen (Josi, Werenski, Makar) on this slate though. We have plenty of cheap lines, goalies, and defensemen here. I also think an LAK, TOR, or DAL 6-man stack has a chance to crush. See you guys in discord.