Welcome to our first NHL slate of the year with a 100K prize pool. It could’ve been a great night if the Kings had gotten an earlier start. However, we move on. All of my small field analysis will be geared toward the NHL $360 spin today. If you’re playing the $12 it’s a pretty similar field size, so assume a similar dynamic is likely to occur. The sharpest guys around will be playing today – and that is not often the case. Additionally, I expect the difference in ownership between small and large field to be stark today.
I’ll mention the standouts and give you a feel for where the Industry is ownership-wise. Then I’ll let you know on where sims are using multiple major models, where PD is at and where I’m at. I’m going to keep this as concise as possible – so let’s get to it!
*I will be updating my ownership thoughts in discord throughout the day, so please check back. This is all as of 11 am PT.
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Positional Overview
Center
- In both large and small fields I expect Mason McTavish (5600) to be the chalk. Probably 20-22% in large field and probably 30% or more in smaller fields like the Spin. ANH2 is way underpriced and definitely chalk.
- In larger fields I expect it to flatten out at the top behind McTavish. Austin Matthews (8500) looks like the second highest owned guy around 18-20%. I expect some combination of Sebastian Aho (6600), Brayden Point (7000), Sidney Crosby (6800), and John Tavares (6400) to be around 11-15% each. Sidney Crosby seems clearly underpriced to me.
- In smaller fields like the spin I think the ownership concentrates fairly heavily. I expect ownership to concentrate around McTavish, Matthews, and Point. TB1 has low ownership projections around the industry, but I don’t believe that. 1) it’s too easy to just drop Hagel (he’s not on PP1), add Hedman, and still easily fit ANH2 2) Sims Industry-wide all love TB/ANH2 or TB 5/6-man stacks as high ROI plays in the spin. I even tinkered with settings and re-ran multiple times. It still loves them regardless of the model I use. There’s just no way those combinations are low owned given how sharp the field will be.
- PD Advocates a pivot from TB1 to MIN1 or PIT1 in smaller fields. I definitely agree with PIT1 (especially PIT PP) considering they are on the opposite side of chalk ANH2. I get MIN1, but I strongly prefer pivoting to EDM1. I think Connor McDavid (8800) is an awesome play here at lower ownership.
- models industry-wide are also high on CAR1 and TOR1. CAR1 does not simulate particularly well within the top 50 lineups across the board in any format.
- Maikel Granlund (4600), Anthony Cirelli (4400),Marco Rossi (4300) Nick Suzuki (6500), and Roope Hintz all project well across the industry. Hintz is fundamentally underpriced.
- Jack Eichel (8100) and Tomas Hertl (5700) are correctly priced, but low owned and in a strong spot against a Calgary team clearly playing for lottery ping pong balls.
- I expect the chalk to be a spend up and mid-tier play here, so punting a C spot with Ben Kindel (2500) or Noah Laba (2500) seems like a strong leverage play. Punting with Kindel is something my PD sims were extremely high on for the spin (66% of top 50 lineups).
- I will address this more going forward, but I personally like Matty Beniers (4600) and Chandler Stephenson (3600) here at zero ownership
Synopsis: The clear chalk in all formats here is McTavish. It will be even more extreme in the spin or smaller fields. I expect ownership to concentrate on Brayden Point and Austin Matthews at a lower rate in the same sort of way – more seperation between the top 3 guys in smaller field than larger fields. I would strongly suggest being wary of McTavish/Matthews or McTavish Point combos. I think Maikel Granlund and Roope Hintz are solid pivots on the lower end. Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid, and Nick Suzuki all look strong on the higher end. Punting with Kindel or playing one of Beniers/Wright/Stephenson are also some other ideas I am high on. Kindel is a phenomenal pivot away from a popular Sennecke.
Wing
- My expectation is we see similar dynamics here as we do at C. I expect Bennett Senecke (2900), Cutter Gauthier (5400), and Nikita Kucherov (7900) to be the chalk. I anticipate that they will seperate even more in the spin with the ANH2 guys being 30%+ and Kucherov 20-25%. There’s just too much consensus when you simulate using all the different models in the industry for those combos not to be extremely high owned.
- I expect it to be somewhat flatter in large fields with the ANH2 guys being around 25%, and Kucherov/Ehlers/Jarvis/Knies/Cowen around 17-20%. So still concentrated, but the top guys won’t seperate as much.
- A point that I really want to emphasize here is that Kucherov (7900), Kaprizov (8300), and Nylander (7100) are underpriced. I think Leon Draisaitl (8300) is probably close to correctly priced, but that makes him an outstanding play. I think the addition of Andrew Mangiapane (3100) to EDM1 is important. I know this is a hockey “take”, but They replaced a forechecker in Frederic with somebody who can actually move the puck and has a history of being a decent depth scorer in the NHL. There’s a chance this makes a big difference that projections won’t pick up. I will be artificially bumping EDM1 tonight.
- Kirill Kaprizov (8300) and Matt Boldy (7300) are part of a MIN1 line that makes a strong pivot away from the more popular TB1 and CAR1 stacks.
- I really like Rickard Rakell (6100) and Bryan Rust (6400) tonight. I think playing PIT or PIT PP makes a ton of sense considering the ANH2 chalk. Cole Caufield (6800) and Juraj Safkofsky (5600) also seem fine
- PD advocates pivoting from TB1 to MIN1 or PIT1 and I agree with this take
- Jason Robertson (5900) is part of a Dallas PP that has a few well-projected pieces on it tonight. He shouldn’t have much ownership, but I’d prefer to at least stack him with Johnston and Harley.
- There is plenty of wing value tonight. Bennett Sennecke (2900), David Tomasek (3000), and Easton Cowen (2700) will be the more popular ones. I think this is what makes a guy like Kindel such a strong play – especially considering there are so many underpriced wings to pay for. Brett Howden (2600) would be my off-the-board cheap wing of the day
- My personal super low owned favorites here are Jared McCann (5600), Jordan Eberle (4100), Mason Marchment (4800), and Eeli Tolvanen (4100). Jackson Blake (3700) also has strong industry-wide NHL projections.
Synopsis: The key here is there’s likely to be more seperation in ownership between the highest owned guys in events like the NHL $360 spin than in larger fields. This is somewhat uncommon in NHL DFS – and maybe a controversial take – but Simulations are so aligned regardless of model or setting that It’s hard to just ignore. Sennecke, Gauthier, Kucherov are likely the guys that seperate in the spin. It’s not like CAR1/TOR1 will be low owned there or anything like that. It will just be flatter at the top in the larger fields. The other key point is that the high priced wings mentioned above in bold are all strong, under priced plays on the high end. Some models see CAR1 and TOR1 as underpriced as well. I definitely believe that about TOR – I just expect Saros to be better this year and Matthews to simply not be as good without Marner. Models don’t agree, but I really do like the Seattle guys here. PD is on board with SEA2 (which I get) and I like SEA1 as well. I’ll go into why later.
Defense
- I expect Victor Hedman (5900) and Jackson LaCombe (4700), Shayne Gostisbehere (4300), and Sean Walker (3300) to be the chalk guys here. Hedman comes up in a huge percentage of the top 50 lineups regardless of what model or setting I used. I just refuse to believe he’s low owned like the Industry suggests. I expect Olen Zelwegger (4400) to get some ownership as well – considering he’s correlated on the PP with super popular ANH2.
- I expect the chalk guys – especially Hedman and LaCombe – to garner mid-20s ownership in the spin with Gostisbehere being 17-20%. I would expect it to be somewhat flatter in larger fields, but I still expect LaCombe and Gostisbehere to be the chalk there. The field loves their mid-tier PP guys.
- PD Grades Jake Chycrun (5000), John Carlson (4900), and Vince Dunn (5400) as pretty strong mid-tier pivots at low ownership. I think Evan Bouchard (6600) is lower owned than Hedman – and I really differ from the industry consensus there. I think that is especially true in an event like the spin where ownership is likely heavily driven by the results of simulations.
- They don’t grade as well, but I do like Erik Karlsson (5500) and Brandon Montour (5800) as pivots away from Hedman
- Mike Reilly (2500) looks like the punt du jour across the industry tonight. There’s any number of options, but I’ve been waiting to play Zayne Parekh (2500) and he’s finally in the published lineup (sarcastic-cheer.gif). So I’m playing him like a rube. He’s probably much higher owned than his 1-2% industry projections. He might even be higher owned than Reilly. I think Brett Kulak (3100) is a perfectly viable play at 3100 – with or without an EDM stack – as well.
- Max Crozier (2500) played with Hedman last time out. Dropping him onto a TB stack would be a contrarian way to go if he’s paired with Hedman. Otherwise the same would go for J.J. Moser (2700) or whomever has that spot.
- Victor Hedman dominates sims regardless of contest, model or setting. He got as high as 75% exposure with some models.
- If you’re playing Kindel I think correlating with Jones (2500) or Brunicke (2500) makes sense if you need a punt defensemen.
Synopsis: Hedman, LaCombe, Gostisbehere, and Walker look like the clear most popular guys to me in smaller fields. In a sharper field like the Spin, I expect ownership to concentrate on Hedman. It’s likely more spread out in larger fields, but I expect the chalk guys to be only slightly less owned.
Goalies
- It’s Gustavsson (7000), Dostal (8100), and Nedeljekovic (7100) as far as the sims are concerned.
- It looks to me like Primeau (8000) and Montembeault (7800) are the chalk. Some projections have Oettinger (7800), Hill (8200), and Dostal (8100) up there as well, but I think it concentrates on Primeau and Montermbeault at lower stakes/large field and follows the sims in the spin
- We have Nedeljekovic (7100) projected the best
Synopsis: Gustavsson, Dostal, and Nedeljekovic are the sims preferences. Tristan Jarry (7300) seems like the leveraged option to me.
Stacks and Theory
- I believe the chalk for the $360 is the one on the left. However, all these combinations will be pretty popular.
- As we can see – ANH2 is the firmest piece of chalk we have. I expect minimum 25% ownership in large fields and as high as the low 30s in the $360.
- TB1/PP and Hedman sim out as the top spend regardless of model, setting within reason, or ownership algorith. Same goes for ANH2 on the cheaper end. TOR also sims well when you cap TB1.
- The sims general consensus on construction for the $360 is a 5 or 6-man TB stack or some form of TB/ANH 4/3 with Hedman.
- Both ANH2 and Kucherov are fundamentally underpriced on this slate. I’m not smart enough to pass judgement on what’s a good or bad play. I just relay what the sims say
- I think the important point to make on this slate is that we continue to have a glut of underpriced wings on the expensive end. Jamming these guys in gives us a clear path to ceiling. This includes Kucherov, Kaprizov, Nylander, Rakell, Rust, and Robertson. Some models also view CAR2 as underpriced, but I’m not sure it’s clear that San Jose is as terrible defensively as I expected. Models may be taking this for granted early in the year. TOR1 is underpriced, but I’m more wary on them at this point. I think the loss of Marner is a big deal in an NHL hockey sense that we can’t quantify yet.
- I think the pivot away from the chalkier stuff on the expensive end is either EDM1 or PIT1. They both make a lot of sense. MON1, NYR1, and MIN1 also look like strong plays
- I think the pivot from ANH2 is definitely SEA1 or 2 and the pivot from Hedman is definitely Montour, Dunn, or Karlsson.
- the lower ownership plays in the $360 – that are aligned with PD sims – are PIT1 and MIN1. When you cap TB1, you start to get MIN1 in the $360 sims. I like EDM1 and SEA 1 or 2.
- Gustavsson, Dostal, and Nedeljekovic are the sims preferred goalies. I think Jarry makes a ton of sense as leverage against ANH
NHL Sims
Industry-wide NHL sims are so aligned on TB1/PP with ANH2 or TB 5/6-mans with Hedman as the top ROI/win rate plays (believe me I tried to get it to diversify) in the $360 that I have a hard time believe those combinations won’t carry a lot of ownership. This is going to be a sharp field where guys are relying on tools like simulations. I think that’s going to drive ownership. TOR1/ANH2 will also garner plenty of ownership. I think those ideas seperate in the $360.
I think the same is true – but to a lesser extent – in larger fields. It will just be tighter at the top with somewhat less TB1, more TOR1/CAR1, still tons of ANH2.
some sharp ideas that are high Win Rate/ROI are 1) MIN1, PIT1, or EDM1 as pivots off TB1 2) SEA1 or 2 as a pivot off ANH2 3) Dunn/Montour/Karlsson as pivots away from Hedman/LaCombe. 4) Jarry in net
I think the biggest takeaway I have for all NHL contests and formats is that I expect TB1 to be higher owned than industry consensus and PIT1/EDM1 to be lower owned. Same is true on Defense. I expect Hedman to be higher owned and Bouchard to be lower owned.