Welcome to – what projects to be – a pretty high-scoring NHL DFS Slate. Let’s dig in!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL Lines
*While I was writing this It was announced that Conor Garland would return for VAN tonight. We do not know where he will slot in, therefore I left him out of the article.
- There’s not a particularly strong industry consensus around who will be the highest owned line tonight. However, my guess is that VAN1 (Petterson/Kane/Sherwood), SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith), and WSH1 (Ovechkin/Strome/Beauvillier) all end up around 20% owned. VAN2 (Reichel/Boeser/DeBrusk) and SEA1 (Beniers/Tolvanen/Eberle) will likely be the highest owned secondary lines. SEA2 (Stephenson/Schwartz/Kakko) and CGY1 (Kadri/Farabee/Zary) likely see low double digit ownership. These are the lines that will dominate small field ownership.
- Toronto has loaded up the top line tonight with Matthews/Nylander/Knies. This line probably comes in around 10-12%. However, you basically need a mortgage to play them at 23.2.
- PD Projections absolutely love SJ1 – and I agree. They project for more raw points than TOR1 and are an elite value. However, their expected goals are not particularly high at 0.98. They also have the lowest HDSF+ on the slate. Our projections are also extremely bearish on VAN1. We are far below the industry on them and I agree. They also look the lowest owned of the three chalk lines to me.
- Our projections also love both STL1 (Thomas/Buchnevich/Snuggerud) and STL2 (Suter/Schenn/Kyrou). I’m not sure what to do with them.
- If I’m picking one of the chalk lines today – sigh…. – it’s probably WSH1.They’re generating a ton of offense with 73 shots/60 minutes and 4.1 expected goals in their 50 minutes on the ice*. WSH2 (McMichael/Wilson/Protas) has been similarly good this year and looks like one of my favorite lines of the slate.
- CBJ1 (Monahan/Marchenko/Voronkov) and CBJ2 (Fantilli/Jenner/Wood) look pretty similar to Washington. CBJ1 has been elite this year so far. 72 shots/60 and almost 5 expected goals/60 are elite numbers*. They make a fantastic pivot away from the chalkier lines in large field. CBJ3 (Silinger/Olivier/Coyle) is also in play at a very cheap price and minimal ownership. Washington/Columbus lineups look strong in all fields tonight. I like the Calgary side of this game as well. CGY1 and CGY2 (Huberdeau/Coranato/Frost) are both strong values. CGY3 (Backlund/Coleman/Honzek) seems fine. Game stacks are firmly in play here.
- UTA1 (Hayton/Keller/Schmaltz) has been really good and looks like a decent large field pivot off higher owned stuff.
- If you want to get really spicy, I think CHI1 (Bedard/Burakovsky/Greene) is firmly in play for large fields. They are generating a similar amount of expected goals and shots per 60 as CBJ1, WSH1, and WSH2*. It just hasn’t materialized yet. They also get to go out against VAN1 – who is getting completely rolled by everyone. Big surprise from an Evander Kane line. Even the Predators lit these guys up the other night. CHI PP stacks are also firmly in play. Frank Nazar (5300) would be my first choice as the 3rd guy in a PP stack. He’s been phenomenal and is the net front guy. The Connor Bedard breakout is here – just a year later than expected. This is the best low owned play we’ve had since the Evans/Gallagher line a few weeks ago
Synopsis: I suspect the order of ownership is VAN1, WSH1, SJ1. I don’t have a ton of confidence in that though. I think VAN1 is by far the worst of the bunch there. Seattle will have ownership – especially SEA1 – but I’m not particularly tempted to go after the Sharks on this slate. It would be SEA3 for me if I have to pick. I’m not sure how low owned Columbus and Calgary will be, but they both look great and have 3 playable lines apiece. Game stacks are firmly in play there. WSH/CBJ lineups also look strong – and that’s probably where I’d go in smaller fields.
In large field play, I think CHI1 could be a true hammer at 1% ownership. They’re a great pivot off SEA and you can pair them with Knight to create a bunch of leverage. I think both STL1 and STL2 look like really strong low-owned plays as well. I think it’s somewhat of a “choose your own adventure” in large field though.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The most popular one-offs here will almost certainly be from Austin Matthews (9500), Macklin Celebrini (7700), and Nazem Kadri (6300). They’re probably all around 20% owned in all fields. People may try jamming Matthews into a cheaper PP stack in smaller fields for sure. I certainly understand the raw points argument, but Matthews is my least favorite. He seems correctly priced and there’s so many strong mid-tier plays.
- Connor Bedard (7500) is probably my favorite play of the slate for reasons outlined above. Chicago’s PP has been terrible, but if they can get a few chances Bedard is a legit threat for a hat trick tonight. He has similar goal props to Celebrini and Nylander. If you don’t want to pay that tag, I think Frank Nazar (5300) is fine as the net front on a CHI PP that should have some chances tonight.
- PD Likes Nazem Kadri, Jordan Kyrou, and Kirill Marchenko tonight. They seem like strong plays in the mid-tier
- Our model loves Alex Ovechkin tonight (like usual). He’s a strong play, but is probably the most popular one-off at wing.
- Boone Jenner (4100), Kiefer Sherwood (4400), Mason Marchment (4800), and Ryan Donato (4400) are probably my favorite one-offs in the 4K range. PD likes them all
- Nobody will play Kent Johnson now that he’s on the 4th line. He looks like a strong way to access the CBJ PP against this penalty-happy Flames team.
- Seattle’s second PP unit has been more productive this year – and they split time evenly. I think Jaden Schwartz (4600) is also a strong play.
Synopsis: I think playing expensive skaters is totally fine on smaller slates like this. However, I still think it’s unnecessary to pay 9500 for Austin Matthews tonight. I think Connor Bedard makes a phenomenal low-owned one-off. There’s plenty of choices though. Kent Johnson (3600) is my favorite super low-owned wing tonight. I prefer to pay down to the 4Ks for my one-offs tonight
NHL Defense
- The chalk here is either Quinn Hughes (7000) or Zack Werenski (8000) paired with Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3100). They’re all probably 20-25% each
- I think it’s fine to just play Ekman-Larsson in any field size if you want. A word of caution though – he does not project that well well in most models around the Industry. This includes ours.
- Mackenzie Weegar (4800), Vince Dunn (5200), and Jake Chycrun (5600) are probably double digit owned as well. They all seem like strong plays.
- Rasmus Andersson (4200), Colton Parayko (4300), and Brandon Montour (6000) are both super productive guys. They just don’t run their respective PP1s. I don’t really care. I think they’re the three best plays at the position besides Werenski.
- #TeamNonPP: Dante Fabbro (2800), Adam Larsson (3400), Cam Fowler (3600), Martin Fehevary (3000), Dmitry Orlov (3400), Sam Dickinson (2500), Rasmus Sandin (2500)
- I like Alex Vlasic (3100), Sam Rinzel (4200), and Artyom Levshunov to round out my CHI love
Synopsis: Werenski is great chalk. I don’t care about his ownership at all. If you want to play Ekman-Larsson – Go ahead. I will be under on him in large fields. There are just so many good plays at defense and I love Montour, Parayko, and Andersson so much. Adam Larsson, Alex Vlasic, and Dante Fabbro look like awesome cheap plays tonight
I continue to think one of the biggest edges in NHL DFS is the field’s obsession with the PP. The ownership has just gone too far toward players on PP1. This is especially true at defense.
Goalies
- My guess is that Kevin Laniken (8200), Jet Greaves (7500), and Logan Thompson (8000) are the popular guys tonight. I think Greaves is probably the most popular since he’s the cheapest. I don’t have a great feel for ownership though.
- I like Dustin Wolf (7900), Jordan Binnington (7400), and Spencer Knight (7200). Knight is my favorite because I think the VAN chalk is super mid.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- I think VAN1 is the chalk here. People like to pick on Chicago. WSH1 and SJ1 are likely the highest owned after them. The highest owned secondary lines will be VAN2, SEA1, and SEA2
- SJ1 is our highest projected line tonight. However, the sheets don’t love them. I think they’re great and it’s possible they come in much lower owned than I expect.
- Our projections also love WSH1, WSH2, CBJ1, CBJ2, everything CGY, STL1, and STL2. Washington and Columbus look like strong plays in small fields. CBJ1 and CBJ2 look good in large field too, but I just wonder if some of the SJ1 ownership goes to CBJ1 and they end up in double digits.
- Our projections are extremely bearish on the VAN chalk. The research tools like them fine.
- Our tools absolutely love the CGY/CBJ game from a pace perspective. It seems like a strong spot to game stack.
- STL1 and STL2 project extremely well and look like really strong large field plays. The sheets do not like them at all though.
- WSH1 and WSH2 have been generating a ton of offense this year. They both look great, but the tools love WSH2 at lower ownership. I agree.
- The same is true for CBJ1. They’re generating a ton of offense
- We have a sicko play tonight in CHI1. They’re generating shots and expected stats at the same rate – or better – than the chalk lines. They’re also facing a penalty-prone Vancouver team that is piss poor defensively. I think they look great at 1% owned and so does Connor Bedard as a one-off
- Werenski/Hughes/Ekman-Larsson look like the chalk. You can definitely be different at defense though. Montour, Andersson, and Parayko all look great.
NHL Synopsis
We have some clear chalk lines and defensemen tonight. Our projection are way below the Industry on VAN – and I love that. There’s just so many good plays tonight.
In smaller fields, you can certainly just play CBJ1/WSH1/SJ1 combinations. They’ll project outstanding. If you want to just eat Ekman-Larsson chalk that’s fine. Fair reminder though – he does not project well Industry-wide.
In larger fields, I think CHI1 is a great play at zero ownership. STL1 and STL2 project a lot better though. All are better than chalky SEA or CGY though. You can take your pick of the expensive stacks with any of those and be in a highly leveraged position. The tools love WSH2 – and I agree. That line has always been good and it has the most expected goals on the slate by our tools. Great spot to be over the field. I love being different at defense as well. I think doing something like Montour/Dunn instead of Werenski/Ekman-Larsson gives you solid equity in the team facing the Sharks.
The point I want to drive home today is this: If you’re trying to take down a large field GPP with less than max entires – don’t be afraid to make bold stands and take risks. The super low owned plays like CHI1 have low probability mathematically, but they are the clearest way to getting the first place you need to have a profitable season.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm