Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a four game slate, so let’s dive right in.
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 1:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
*When I refer to ownership – those numbers will be reflected in the run I push through after this article
- NHL Ownership looks to be pretty flat in the top tier tonight. The only exception is BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Doan) likely being around 25% owned in large field and 30% in small field. The projection strikes me as somewhat odd due to CGY being (generally) a decent defensive team at even strength. However BUF has very strong projections industry-wide. Our model is on board. The super cheap PP guys you can pair with Thompson to save salary will really bump up the ownership here as well.
- I suspect the chalk pairing will be WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/McMichael) because they’re cheap enough to fit Dahlin and another good Power Play defensemen. I have them around 22%.
- There’s a wide variety of lines that look around 15-18% owned tonight. These include ANH1 (Carlsson/Terry/Kreider), ANH2 (McTavish/Gauthier/Sennecke), BOS1 (Khusnutdinov/Pastrnak/Geekie), CGY1 (Kadri/Huberdeau/Coranato), and MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson). I suspect CGY1 ends up the lowest owned in large field here.
- Our model loves MIN1 (Yurov/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) and WSH2 (Sourdif/Wilson/Protas). They both look about 8-10% owned.
- Our slate matchups tool loves CAR and – to a lesser extent ANH. I completely agree on CAR. MIN is a solid defensive team, but CAR1 is the high-ceiling line that will be left behind ownership-wise. Yeah – their scoring tends to be really spread out. That’s the lousy part about it. I think CAR1 is a phenomenal play here in clearly the highest-paced game environment. CAR2 is also fine, but likely comes in with more ownership than CAR1.
- So look – The Oilers have been bad. Their best players are spread out across the lineup, they’re against the league’s best goalie, and they haven’t been drawing that many penalties. All the numbers tell you not to play the EDM PP, but I think it’s a strong idea here. We have some solid value lines tonight and the WSH PK is hot garbage (29th in xGoals). I just don’t think people will want to do it.
- ANH1, ANH2, and BOS1 are all likely to be popular lines tonight. Both of these teams commit and draw penalties at high rates. Our matchups tool loves ANH, but be aware that there’s a ton of variance in this game. If there aren’t many whistles, it could certainly be a lemon – because the pace is going to be slow.
- We have some value lines tonight than project as strong point/$ plays. ANH3 (Strome/Vatrano/Killorn) and BUF2 (McLeod/Quinn/Rosen) lead the way here. I suspect BUF2 will be the more popular option – despite being a significantly worse play by our projections. There’s a bunch of these lines tonight, but the other two I’ll mention are BOS4 (Kuraly/Tufte/Eyssimont), and WSH3 (Dowd/Beauvillier/Leonard). BOS4 is – in reality – BOS2 by minutes. You also get two penalty killers on a unit that may be busy tonight in what could be a Penalty-filled game in ANH tonight. WSH3 also looks fine. Beauvillier is a decent professional scorer, and they will likely go out against either the McDavid or Draisaitl line – as Dowd is their shutdown center.
Synopsis: In small fields, you can just play BUF1/WSH1 is you want to be a chalk donkey. However, WSH1/ANH1 or a Thompson/Quinn/Dahlin build are also a viable routes to go. BUF1/WSH1 will be heavily duplicated.
In larger fields, you can go a ton of different ways tonight. Our projections love MIN1 and a plethora of cheap lines. CAR1 is the clear large field play at heavily suppressed ownership. I think they’re ass and I won’t adovcate it – but playing a CGY PP stack does make a lot of sense. BUF’s goaltending on the PK just can’t keep standing on it’s head forever. The value really dictates that a MIN or EDM PP stack is a strong play as well. I think EDM is going to be pretty low owned because people believe in Logan Thompson. I’m going back to the well on the EDM PP tonight.
In large field – I’m definitely going to shy away from the BUF ownership. I think WSH is totally fine if you surround them with the right pieces though.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- I suspect the most popular one-offs tonight will be David Pastrnak (8800), Troy Terry (5200), and Tage Thompson (8000). Thompson could get to 35% owned in large field and 40% in small field. I suspect the other two guys are around 25% in all fields.
- I think Cutter Gauthier (7700) certainly makes sense as a one-off. He shoots the lights out and presents a solid floor in smaller fields. I also like going to Kirill Kaprizov (8500), but I prefer to bring Danila Yurov (2600) along for the ride just due to price. Connor McDavid (9000) – at what will likely be around 10% ownership – seems like the strongest one-off on the board at the expensive end though
- In the mid-tier I like the following guys: Matt Coranato (4600), Tom Wilson (4800), Chris Kreider (5100), Morgan Geekie (5500), and Zack Hyman (5800). The last 4 are my favorite net front PP guys.
- One of the reasons the Oilers PP has been so good over the last few years – and it’s still been top-5 by expected goals this year – is they run this play where someone shoots and Zack Hyman re-directs the puck with his stick. They will run this play at even strength sometimes too. He’s an artist at this and they try to run it almost every Power Play. He’s such a strong one-off tonight.
- Cheap PP guys: Ostlund (2800), Rosen (3300), Khusnutdinov (3300), Quinn (3500)
- All 3 of those cheap BUF PP guys will be popular and overowned in my opinion. There is so much value at F/C tonight. Playing 12-15% owned cheap guys from the BUF PP seems really silly. There are higher probability plays with less ownership such as:
- TeamNonPP: Blake Coleman (3800), Connor McMichael (3500), Frank Vatrano (3400), Taylor Hall (3400), Alex Killorn (3200), Ryan Leonard (3100), Adam Klapka (2700), Ryan Strome (2700), Sean Kuraly (2700), Mikey Eyssimont (2700), Riley Tufte (2500)
Synopsis: There is so much value here. Let folks concentrate their ownership in silly spot like Isak Rosen, Noah Ostlund, and Jack Quinn. You can dump a bunch of ownership by playing guys who project almost as well without “PP1” next to their name. There’s plenty of good plays in the mid-tier that won’t be popular as one-offs either.
NHL Defense
- Rasmus Dahlin (6100) is clearly underpriced and the ownership reflects that. He’s probably 37% owned in large field and over 40% in small fields. The clear chalk pairing is Jackson LaCombe (4800) at 25%/30%. Zeev Buium (3400) is your cheap PP defensemen du jour at around 10-12% owned.
- I continue to be a big Rasmus Andersson (4700) fan. He’s too cheap to be only 8-10% owned. I think Evan Bouchard (6300) and Jake Chycrun (5700) make solid pivots off Dahlin. Per usual – I like Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse (4200) as well. Nurse should see a pile of minutes playing next to Bouchard on 1st pairing. That’s good for DFS, but not for the Oilers. Hampus Lindholm (3800) is also cheap and moves the puck okay on the BOS PP
- Matthias Samuelsson (3100), Olen Zellwegger (3300), and Jonas Brodin (3600) make sense as guys playing opposite the chalk defensemen.
- Matt Roy (3300) and Jake Trouba (4400) are two very productive guy with no Power Play time. They both look great.
- #TeamNonPP: Jared Spurgeon (4300), Brock Faber (4100), Sean Walker (4000), Owen Power (3600), Jake Middleton (3200), Andrew Peeke (3100), Mason Lohrei (2900), Martin Fehervary (2900), Yan Kuznetsov (2500)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you play Dahlin – but there’s strong pivots in Chycrun and Bouchard. I strongly prefer Rasmus Andersson to LaCombe. Lindholm or Buium are ok there too I guess, but you shouldn’t need them on this slate. In larger fields, I think guys like Walman, Nurse, Faber, Samuelsson, Zellwegger, Trouba, and Roy make sense. Trouba, Roy, and Bouchard are three of my favorites tonight.
NHL Goalies
- I think the chalk is Jeremy Swayman at around 25%. Colten Ellis probably comes in around 17-20%. Wallstedt (7200) may get some ownership as well. It’s pretty concentrated.
- Logan Thompson (8000) has arguably been the best goalie in Hockey. The Oilers will put shots on him, so he looks good. Fredrik Anderssen is old, but probably faces plenty of shots from MIN tonight as well.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- BUF1/WSH1/Dahlin is the chalk. Our projections love WSH1, but are luke-warm on BUF. BUF1/ANH1 will also be a high-owned combination.
- There are lots of good value lines tonight. ANH3 and BOS4 are two of my favorites.
- The matchups tool loves CAR. CAR1 is the most underowned play, but their scoring is very spread out. Good spot to play a bunch of different CAR lines in MME
- I think running an EDM PP stack is also very viable. There are tons of well-projected value skaters tonight. Ignoring them and playing a balanced build – like the field will – seems like a mistake.
- Our lineshares model loves BUF1 and ANH1. It likes CAR1 and ANH2 to a lesser extent
- There’s going to be a lot of ownership on this BOS/ANH game due to the penalty-happy nature of both teams. However – without enough Power Plays – the slow pace and solid goaltenders in this game could definitely cause it to bust. Getting under the field is a strong move here.
- There’s a team I refuse to mention that’s facing the Sabres tonight. I doubt they get as much ownership as the industry suggests. They are Theoretically a strong play, but I despise them.
- I love Zack Hyman as a one-off tonight if you’re not playing EDM.
- Dahlin/LaCombe or Lindholm is the clear chalk. Bouchard, Chycrun, and Andersson are great pivots. There’s plenty of low-owned non-PP defensemen tonight as well. I particularly like Roy, Faber, and Trouba.
- Swayman is the chalk in net, but Anaheim’s power play will also be chalky. ANH3 is a solid way to leverage against that.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I would probably fade BUF and play WSH1/ANH1 or PP. It’s tough to play ANH without Gauthier though. You can still play Dahlin as a hedge if you want – and you do not need to play LaCombe.
In larger fields, CAR1 and EDM1/PP rise above the rest. The available value lines are too strong for me to ignore. I will take my chances. MIN PP also seems ok in that regard. You can also just use two-mans of the value lines to afford an expensive one-off instead.
Overall, I’m going to be way under on Buffalo. They’re fine in smaller fields, but I won’t be heavy on them.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm