Welcome to the Wednesday’s NHL slate. Let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my NHL thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 3:30 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- It’s going to be fairly condensed at the top ownership-wise tonight. My sense is that the highest owned line will be UTA1 (Cooley/Schmaltz/Keller) at about 22% in large field and 25% in smaller fields. They will most often be paired with EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Roslovic). They look to have a pretty similar ownership number.
- There are likely a few other lines with ownership around 15%. Those are NJ1 (Hughes/Bratt/Noesen), NJ2 (Hischier/Meier/Mercer), UTA2 (Hayton/Guenther/Peterka), the current iteration of TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Guentzel), and the current iteration of TB2 (Cirelli/Hagel/Concalves). BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/McLeod), PHI1 (Couturier/Michkov/Zegras), PHI3 (Dvorak/Konecny/Tippett), and PHI2 (Cates/Brink/Foerster) are probably all around 10-12%.
- We have plenty of Question marks tonight – especially for TB. Cirelli (C), Hedman (D), and Pontus Holmberg (W) are all Questionable. They recalled two F/Cs from the AHL yesterday – so don’t be surprised if Cirelli and Holmberg are out. If Cirelli is out, I would expect Yanni Gourde (C, 2600) to move up to the second line and become a strong value. I think the more important impact would just be more minutes for Brayden Point though.
- Utah is the highest owned team tonight and they deserve it. They’ve been great. However, our projections prefer TB1 both by raw projection and point/$ by quite a bit. It’s unlikely to be a high-volume PP spot and the matchup isn’t good, so hopefully that keep the ownership down. It seems unlikely that will happen if Victor Hedman is out though. $2500 Darren Raddysh running the PP will make that stack much easier to play.
- The chalk line to pair with TB1, NJ PP, or EDM PP will be PHI2. However, I definitely like the idea of playing UTA3 (McBain/Crouse/Carcone) at 8100. They don’t project that well or get tons of ice time (12-14 minutes plus some PK time), but they create plenty of offense. 4.5 expected goals and 80 shot attempts/60 are elite NHL offensive numbers*, these BUF depth lines stink defensively, and it’s Ellis – rather than Lyon – in net. Lawson Crouse and Michael Carcone aren’t scrubs either. They both have 20-goal NHL seasons on their resume. If you want to drop McBain to play another C, you can certainly just play Ian Cole (2800) with them as a 3rd pair defensemen. He plays 16-18 minutes, gets PK time, and blocks shots at a decent rate. I like these guys quite a bit and I’d rather play them than the more popular NJ3 (Glass/Palat/Gritsyuk), but both are fine on the super cheap end.
- I was all set to bang the drum for CHI1 (Bedard/Burakovsky/Bertuzzi) here, but now Burakovsky has the Q tag. CHI doesn’t have much depth, so losing Burakovsky and Frank Nazar is a pretty big deal. Burakovsky/Bedard/Greene and Bertuzzi/Nazar/Teravainen were absolutely rolling. The only bright side is this probably gets Teravainen and Donato on the PP. I love the idea of CHI1 or a PP stack – and the ownership will be super low – but be prepared to pivot to some kind of New Jersey combination if they do something idiotic like put Colton Dach and some other bum up there with Bedard. I think NYR2 (Trochek/Panarin/Lafreniere) is a pretty strong play as well. TB has been good defensively, but that line was pretty good last year and elite the year before by shot attempts and expected goals/60*. The Rangers have been creating an elite amount of high danger chances. Hopefully this line can start finishing.
- Our projections love TB1, TB2, UTA2, BUF1, and BUF2 from a point/$ standpoint.
- The matchups tool favors NJ, UTA, and – to a lesser extent – the Rangers. Our lineshares model says UTA1 is the best play by a lot. It also likes CHI1 quite a bit.
- The public definitely believes in Spencer Knight and they love cheap goalies. There’s a chance we see both NJ lines come in at around 15%. CHI still commits a lot of penalties. Knight has just been standing on his head on the PK. The NJ PP is much worse with Luke Hughes instead of Hamilton, but I still like the spot for them.
- A composite of Industry-wide ownership tells me that Connor McDavid is going to be 10-12% owned. If that is actually true, some sort of EDM PP or larger EDM stack is my favorite play on the board. Remember – when it’s a close game, they just throw McDavid and Draisaitl on the top line for the 3rd period and let them run teams over. The Flyers slow the game down, but they commit their fair share of penalties, Dan Vladar sucks, and the EDM PP has been the best in the NHL for the last half decade. I will just play these guys and take my chances.
Synopsis: I suspect one UTA line or the other will be a chalky small field play. I think that’s a totally fine way to go. I do think a NJ PP stack or TB1 is viable in smaller fields though. If Hedman is out I think TB1 vaults to the top of the pile here. If you want some access to EDM – but don’t want to play EDM2 – just play a McDavid one-off with two cheap dudes like Crouse/Carcone or Cates/Brink.
In larger fields, I like a NJ or EDM PP stack if you’re willing to go that expensive. TB1 projects well and is also strong, but I suspect their ownership inflates if Hedman is out. CHI1 and NYR2 look solid in the mid-tier. I also really like UTA3 on the super cheap end. I’ll be updating ownership thoughts – and I’ll have a firm answer then – but if McDavid is half the ownership of Draisaitl or Hughes you just play him.
NHL F/C One-Offs
- The Most Popular one-offs tonight are likely to be Leon Draisaitl (8500) and Jack Hughes (8800) at about 30% ownership each. Brandon Hagel (5400) also looks to be pretty popular due to strong industry projections.
- These small slates are fundamentally different from the full-size ones. I actually think you can – and want to – jam expensive guys on these slates. In that spirit – Connor McDavid (9000) looks half as owned as Draisaitl and Jack Hughes. Connor McDavid is the best Hockey player in the NHL – and probably the world. Play Connor McDavid.
- Connor Bedard (8000) is more appropriately priced now, but he seems likely to be lower owned. He’s a viable pivot off these guys, but I like him less as a one-off because I like Bertuzzi’s (4500) role as net front on the PP and first line wing so much.
- JJ Peterka (4200) and Matvei Michkov (4000) both project extremely well for us. Fair warning though – Michkov’s minutes are down around 14/night and there are rumblings that he might not be healthy. Ryan Donato (4700) projects pretty well and might sneak his way onto PP1 if Burakovsky is out. Owen Tippett (5100) never met a shot he didn’t like. He always makes sense when he’s in the mid-tier
- my favorites are the net front guys though: Will Cuylle (4400), Jack Roslovic (4300), Josh Doan (3900), and Tyler Bertuzzi (4500) all seem good in the mid-tier. Brayden Point (6300) will not be a popular one-off – but he’s on net front and priced down below his linemates at 6300. Timo Meier (5700) also looks good
- Your cheap PP guys are: Isak Rosen (3000), Jack Quinn (3400), Oliver Bjorkstrand (3000), and Trent Frederic (2600). A word of caution – that last man on the EDM PP rotates all the time. It may not even be Frederic.
- Your PD Non-PP specials of the day are: Arseny Gritsyuk (3100), Stefan Noesen (3000), Vasily Podkolzin (3000), Cody Glass (2700). If Cirelli is out, Yanni Gourde (2600) would be the top value on the slate by a ton if he centers TB2
- I like Michael Carcone (2700) and Lawson Crouse (2900)
Synopsis: There’s a bunch of guys. Connor McDavid at mid-teens ownership look awesome. I think playing Brayden Point or Timo Meier as a one-off is interesting. Bertuzzi, Cuylle, and Roslovic are all interesting as well. Keep an eye on TB for value, but my cheap dudes are: Rosen, Quinn, Noesen, Glass, Gritsyuk, Carcone, and Crouse
NHL Defense
- Mikhail Sergachev (5500) and Luke Hughes (5300) look like the highest owned guys at about 20% each. Evan Bouchard (6700) land Adam Fox (5900) look to be around 15%
- Bowen Byram (3000) is running the BUF PP. He’s probably the chalk – especially in small field – unless Hedman is out. Then it will likely be Darren Raddysh (2500) at min price.
- Jake Walman (5000) isn’t on the PP, so he will definitely see depressed large field ownership. He may in smaller fields as well – especially if Hedman is out. He’s an elite play and my favorite defensemen on the board. Darnell Nurse (4700) is second. You can play both of these guys in an EDM2 stack if you want.
- #TeamNonPP: Owen Power (3700), Matthias Ekholm (4300), Travis Sanheim (4100), Vladislav Gavrikov (3200), Alex Vlasic (3000), Ian Cole (2800), John Marino (2700), and Michael Kesselring (2600)
- Marino is a way to differentiate your UTA2 stack. I really like Ian Cole (2800). He projects well around the industry, but not for us.
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I think you can play two of Sergachev, Walman, Byram, or Raddysh (if no Hedman). In larger fields I really like the Nurse/Walman build. I think a Bouchard/Ekholm build is also interesting. Ian Cole, John Marino, Owen Power, and Vladislav Gavrikov are all interesting to me as well.
NHL Goalies
- My guess is the two chalky goalies are Andrei Vasilevsky (8000), Igor Shesterkin (7400), and Spencer Knight (7200). Vasilevsky projects the best around the Industry. Knight has been awesome this year and the field loves cheap goalies. Igor is a big name for cheap. I think Vasilevsky is probably 20-22% while Igor and Knight are around 15% each.
- If you don’t want to play EDM, I suppose you could play Dan Vladar. He will see plenty of shots. He really does suck though.
- Take your pick of any of these other clowns. I guess Vasilevsky and Vejmelka are fine. I don’t really care though.
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- UTA1/EDM2 seems like the chalk build to me. I think you can differentiate by playing both Nurse and Walman with Draisaitl and either of the other guys. It’s harder to differentiate with UTA1, but playing Marino with them seems okay.
- Our projections love TB1, UTA2, TB2, BUF1, and BUF2 value-wise.
- Our Matchups tool likes UTA, NJ, and the Rangers. Our line market shares love UTA1. They also like CHI1
- The ownership is pretty flat at the top. You can find creative way to play whomever. The one thing I feel strongly about is that McDavid is underowned. I think an EDM PP stack makes a ton of sense. You can roll in 1-2 of the non-PP defensemen to differentiate and go from there
- I also really like UTA3 as a leveraged, cheap line. They have solid advanced NHL numbers and aren’t bad hockey players at all.
- CHI1 and NYR2 are the even strength lines I like for large field. My top plays are NJ and EDM PP or larger stacks though. A 5 or 6-man UTA stack also seems fine.
- In smaller fields I think you eat UTA1 and Sergachev, then find your way from there. Sergachev just plays so much that he’s hard to fade – even for both Raddysh and Byram.
- The lowest owned play will probably be CHI. I think a CHI PP stack is pretty sharp
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I think you can just eat UTA1, then go from there. I think paying down at defense and getting to Hischier/Meier and a solid one-off is a sharp play in my book.
In larger fields, I definitely like EDM PP to take advantage of the McDavid ownership that looks too low. If you don’t want to eat that much EDM in a poor game environment, you can just play a McDavid one-off. NJ PP also seems fine against what is likely to be an overowned Spencer Knight. Our projections love TB1, but I might just get to a point one-off or Point/Raddysh if Hedman sits. UTA3 looks great as a super-cheap filler. You can play McBain or just drop him for Ian Cole to fill a D slot. NJ3 is also fine in that regard. CHI1/PP and NYR2 also look like strong plays.
Whatever you do on this slate – you’re looking to put together 4-5 big scores tonight. Therefore, reducing correlation is a solid way to go.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm