Welcome to Thursday’s NHL DFS slate. We have an 11 game slate on tap for tonight. Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 4 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So the one line that is the chalkiest – by kind of a lot – is CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment) at 17% owned. The chalk combinations will be using LAK2 (Byfield/Laferriere/Moore) at 11% to get Werenski or pairing them with EDM1 (McDavid/Savoie/Podkolzin). CBJ projects really well industry-wide and has a big total – but it seems like weird chalk to me considering the matchup against Fox/Gavrikov and Igor. I know those guys haven’t been that good lately – but we’ve wanted to avoid them most of the season. The Kings are likely to face Sam Ersson for the Flyers tonight – and he has really struggled this year. LAK2 is cheap, has played well, and projects well industry-wide. I like them, but this slate is full of good options in that price range. Edmonton is facing a reeling Panthers team that has pretty much quit on the season. I get it, but they don’t seem like something essential that you have to play. It’s a pretty wide open slate overall. I’m not going to be super concerned about ownership beyond Columbus.
- There is a ton to talk about on this slate – so I’m going to break it down a bit differently. There’s just too many lines that project well or look viable while almost nobody really pulls away.
- We have two distinct build types on this slate: Balanced (so two mid-priced lines) or Barbell (expensive/cheap or mid/cheap/expensive D). Both of these have merit. I think going to two of SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Graf), VGK2 (Marner/Dorofeyev/Hertl), BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Benson), NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista), NSH2 (Wood/Forsberg/Marchesseault), UTA2 (Peterka/Guenther/Cooley) or EDM2 (Nugent-Hopkins/Hyman/Roslovic) makes a ton of sense. They pretty much all project within 3 points of each other. I’ll dive into a couple of these spots shortly
- The Barbell build is also strong here. TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel), MIN1 (Yurov/Boldy/Kaprizov), and MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky) are in three of the strongest spots on the slate with extremely high ceilings. We also have a ton of cheap lines that project extremely well. Any of SEA1 (McMann/Beniers/Eberle), BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn), BUF3 (Doan/Norris/Ostlund), SJ2 (Misa/Eklund/Sherwood), SJ3 (Wennberg/Smith/Regenda), BOS3 (Lindholm/Geekie/Reichel), BOS2 (Mittlestadt/Arvidsson/Zach), CBJ3 (Coyle/Sillinger/Olivier) or SEA2 (Stephenson/McCann/Gaudreau) make strong secondary lines to play with more expensive stuff. You do sacrifice the high-end defensemen by doing it – but you also ditch a bunch of ownership as a by-product. It’s just a trade-off. This slate really comes down to how you value the defensemen. That kind of dictates how you’re going to build tonight.
- There’s a few spots I want to address here – and the first one is BUF/SJ. This game could be a shitshow. Alex Tuch will return for the Sabres tonight so they likely go back to Thompson/Tuch/Benson – which is a line that has performed well over the long-term. They seem fine. I think all 3 lines for BUF and the power play are all viable. BUF2 (McLeod/Zucker/Quinn) is probably my favorite even strength line from the Sabres. They’ve been consistently good all year. I think if you’re not going to them – than looking at a BUF PP or BUF1/BUF3 combo stack are ways to go. Thompson/Tuch/Dahlin/Norris/Doan seems fine. The Sharks side is a little more complicated. Celebrini has not played as well without Smith on his wing. That is a concern for me – and it’s why I’m dinging SJ1 a bit. I definitely like SJ2 and SJ3 as depth lines here, but I don’t think the Sharks power play guys will be a featured part of my builds tonight.
- The Nashville/Seattle game also deserves discussion. NSH1, NSH2, and SEA1 are all getting 6-8% ownership tonight – and it’s for a good reason. They’re all cheap. The Preds keep getting into track meets and tonight could be no exception. Bobby McMann has been absolutely on fire since he got to Seattle and is back to his old shot-happy ways. I see no reason for that to change tonight against a depleted Preds squad – so fire up SEA1. SEA2 (Stephenson/McCann/Gaudreau) is also worth consideration. They don’t project as well raw points-wise – but they are getting almost zero ownership compared to SEA1’s 9-10%. I kind of like getting both McCann and McMann into a lineup together because it could be a big chunk of the team’s goals. They don’t really correlate – but they both dominate the shot attempts when they’re on the ice. I think you can definitely go to something like Gaudreau/Kakko/McMann/Montour as the cheap second power play in a time share situation. I also think Ryan Winterton/Ben Meyers is viable as a min-priced two-man. They’ve been productive and if you want to use them to jam in an expensive one-off – have at it. On the Nashville side I think it’s the top two lines. Take your pick.
- TB1 and MIN1 are the two clear top plays tonight – but I’m banging the drum for Ottawa again. Sorokin is really good – but the Islanders do a piss poor job controlling the play in front of him and the Sens excel at creating high danger chances. I think any of OTT1 (Stuetzle/Batherson/Giroux), OTT2 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig), or OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins) are viable. The sens top guys should see more depth matchups tonight due to being at home and wanting to keep Pinto out against the Islanders top line. Nobody besides Chabot will have any ownership here – but our tools really like this spot and I think it makes sense to attack it in larger field events.
- I do think you can go to Chicago here as a low owned option. CHI2 (Nazar/Bertuzzi/Teravainen) is fully correlated on the power play against this shaky MIN penalty kill. You can roll in Bedard for a power play stack if you want. Donato/Mikheyev are also a fine two-man if you need some value.
- The last team I’m going to address is Vegas. I do like going to VGK1 (Eichel/Barbashev/Stone) or VGK2 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Marner) tonight. Utah is a good defensive team – but their goaltending can completely melt down and the Vegas power play is always a beast with Mark Stone on the ice. The Vegas Power Play is another strong large field stack that looks a lot like PIT did last night.
In smaller fields – you can go to Columbus if you want. However, I think the depth lines on this slate are strong enough to where the move is to pay up for TB1, TB PP or MIN1. The value is just so strong on SEA1 and the depth in the BUF/SJ game that I think it’s the clear path here.
In large fields, I really like OTT and VGK quite a bit. Minnesota and Tampa Bay have standout totals so larger 5-man stacks are probably ok considering the value available tonight. I would definitely be sure I’m leveraging some of the lower owned cheap stuff tonight. There is value everywhere. You can also go the balanced route. I like VGK2, MIN2, and both Nashville lines in the mid-tier.
NHL Defense
- Zach Werenski (8000) looks like the clear chalk tonight. Evan Bouchard (7500) and Quinn Hughes (6500) are 12-15%. Charlie McAvoy, Thomas Chabot, Roman Josi (7000), and Dimtry Orlov (3200) are 8-10% each
- I definitely like the idea of playing Hughes/Faber with the full MIN1 or just two of the guys. I think Fantilli/Marchenko/Werenski/Fabbro is totally fine if you insist on playing Columbus
- Brandon Montour (4800), Filip Hronek (4200), and Vince Dunn (4000) are three power play guys I like
- Rasmus Andersson (3800), Shea Theodore (3500), and Noah Hanifin (3300) are all really cheap for their talent level. They don’t have power play equity – but that’s excessively priced in here.
- Jordan Spence (3500) and Tyler Kleven (2800) have posted very strong offensive numbers all year and are seeing increased playing time with Sanderson out. They’ll likely get to play with the Cozens/Tkachuk or Stuetzle/Batherson line. I like them a lot at low ownership as well.
- Artyom Levshunov (3000) and Dmitry Orlov (3200) are your cheap power play guys here
I’m probably inclined to fade the ownership on Bouchard and Werenski. I don’t think that they are in excellent spots. I like plenty of mid-tier and cheaper guys tonight and I think it’s a solid night to leverage them.
NHL Goalies
- Vasilevsky (8500), Hellebuyck (7400), and Greaves (8300) come in at 12-15% for me
- I could see Igor Shesterkin (7100) getting traction here as well. He’s a household name.
- I like the Sens – but I can also see going to Sorokin (7200) for sure
- Confirmed: Shesterkin (NYR), Greaves (CBJ), Hellebuyck (WPG), Swayman (BOS), Remier (OTT), Dobes (MTL), Gibson (DET), Wallstedt (MIN), Bobrovsky (FLA), Ingram (EDM), Lyon (BUF), Laniken (VAN), Hill (VGK), Kuemper (LA)
- Unconfirmed: Sorokin (NYI), Knight (CHI), Daccord (SEA), Saros (NSH), Nedeljokvic (SJ), Vasilevsky (TB), Vejmelka (UTA), Ersson (PHI)
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk builds are likely to be CBJ1/LAK2/Werenski and CBJ1/EDM1
- I strongly prefer spending up for a MIN1/TB1/MTL1 in smaller fields tonight. I think there are a ton of cheap lines to play and ownership is too concentrated on just a small number of them.
- In larger fields it’s pretty wide open. I do really like the super low ownership on Ottawa and the cheap defensemen for Vegas.
- I think spreading out amongst the cheaper value lines makes a ton of sense.
- It’s fine to go the CBJ1 route – but be aware of the ownership that the rest of the pieces of the lineup come with.
- There are two really strong double-defense pairings tonight in Werenski/Fabbro and Hughes/Faber.
- The NSH/SEA game is interesting – but does carry plenty of ownership. I prefer to go with the BUF/SJ game for value.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – you can go to chalk CBJ1 but I prefer TB1 or MIN1. I think the values in the BUF/SJ game and SEA1 are just too strong to ignore and I do not think Chalk Werenski or Bouchard stand out that much.
In larger fields – It’s pretty wide open. Do what your projections and sims tell you. I do really like OTT and VGK. I also like MIN1 and TB1 mixed with the plethora of cheap, well-projected lines. You can go the balanced route and avoid Columbus as well – but that ownership is just a lot.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm