Welcome to a massive 15 game slate of NHL DFS. This looks really wide open – so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*There will be multiple updates in discord
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So there are two lines with ownership of 16-17% that I will mention – otherwise it’s pretty wide open. Those lines are BOS PP (Zacha/Pastrnak/Geekie) and DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane). I definitely understand why BOS would be chalk against a PHI team on a road B2B starting Sam Ersson. It’s a great spot for BOS – but Lindholm is out and has been replaced by Fraser Minten. I definitely see the field just dropping down to Zacha and making it a Power Play stack. The DET2 ownership has me puzzled. Yeah, they’ve been great and project extremely well industry-wide. They’re also facing Lindgren rather than Thompson. My hunch is they come in under that number and ANH1 (Granlund/Killorn/Sennecke) comes in with double digits.
- We don’t really have a lot of ownership to talk about – but I will touch on this VAN/ANH game because I expect the field to flock here for value. All of ANH1, ANH2 (Poehling/Gauthier/Viel), and VAN1 (Petterson/DeBrusk/Karlsson) probably see 8-10% ownership each. This game definitely has the potential to be a total shitshow – but these are two short handed offenses. It’s also possible that this game is 3-2 because neither team can get it together enough. I definitely like the VAN side better though. VAN1 is fully correlated on the PP with cheap Hronek playing with them. They ended up as chalk the other night though and I am afraid that happens again. BOS1/VAN1 is just a really easy build. I do think VAN3 (Blueger/Ohgren/Garland) is worth a look though – as is a VAN PP2 combo of Chytil/Garland/Ohgren/Willander. They’re going to split PP time pretty close to even and those guys look much lower owned than the first line.
- I’m not going to go into much detail here, but it’s safe to say all of COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Olofsson), EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins), and TB1 (Cirelli/Hagel/Kucherov) are in very strong spots against penalty-happy opponents with shaky defenses. The only trick is you have to pay through the nose for them. TB1 is definitely my favorite among these three though. WPG and Hellebuyck have a strong defensive brand, but they have been terrible this year and TB1 has absolutely run over everyone. These super expensive lines don’t have a great track record on huge slates, but I do not mind going to TB1 at 1-2% at all in large field GPPs.
- PIT is in a fantastic spot against CHI with a huge total. Bryan Rust has been suspended and we do not have an update on the status of Malkin. Erik Karlsson is back for PIT and that is a huge deal. There is nobody else who can move the puck for them on the blue line. He will immediately jump-start their offense tonight. PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/Hayes), PIT2 (Malkin/Novak/Chinakov), and PIT3 (Kindel/Mantha/Brazeau) are all in play tonight. I definitely like a PIT Power Play stack of Crosby/Rakell/Chinakov/Karlsson – especially if Malkin is out. If he plays – I will definitely like PIT2 better than I would without him.
- Another spot I want to highlight is this TOR/SEA game. Both of these teams really need a win here – especially TOR. He’s been close for awhile – so I would not be surprised to see William Nylander (6300) activated tonight. The Leafs absolutely need to win this game. Their season is on life support sitting 8 points out of a playoff spot with 4 games before the long roster freeze. I do not mind any of the Leafs top 3 lines tonight. TOR1 (Matthews/Domi/McMann), TOR2 (Tavares/Knies/Maccelli), and TOR3 (Roy/Robertson/Cowan) all look like solid plays. I actually think TOR1 is my least favorite here. The Kraken can control the matchups and SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/McCann) have been very solid defensively for a couple years now (2.07 xGA/60 this year, 2.37 last year). I definitely prefer TOR2 from the Leafs side. SEA1 (Beniers/McCann/Eberle) probably see moderate ownership, but nothing to be concerned about. I really like them against a Matthews line that just can’t play defense. SEA3 (Wright/Schwartz/Kakko) also looks pretty good on the cheap end. This is my favorite spot of the night after PIT
- The other game that has my eye a little bit is NSH/NJ. NJ can mess with the matchups a little bit and probably exploit the weaker NSH depth lines a bit. NJ2 (Hischier/Gritsyuk/Tsyplakov) or a Mercer/Meier/Nemec stack would be my preferred routes to exploit that. I think you can go to either NSH1 (O’Reilly/Evangelista/Forsberg) or NSH2 (Haula/Stamkos/Bunting) as well. This is definitely a spot that could have some offense tonight.
- I’ll mention a few other spots: you can definitely go back to PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Zegras) – assuming Konecny plays. They’re a bit overpriced, but you could certainly go with a SJ stack. Celebrini lines are great offensively, but make their hay off the break. They are not likely to get out in transition against the faster McDavid – so they need to do it on the PP or via SJ2 (Wennberg/Toffoli/Regenda). MIN is in a very strong spot against CGY on the road. You can go to MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello), MIN2 (Eriksson EK/Boldy/Johansson), or some sort of MIN PP stack in large fields tonight for sure. If Josh Norris (5000) makes it back for this one – feel free to fire up the BUF Power Play at zero ownership. They’re elite with him in the lineup and should have plenty of opportunities against the always penalty-prone Kings. FLA/STL is an interesting game and I think we can go to the STL side for sure. If Kyrou and Neighbours are out we may get STL1 (Schenn/Snuggerud/Berggren) fully correlated on the PP for 9.7K. It’s a fine spot for FLA – but good luck figuring out who is going to score.
In smaller fields – My lean is probably the BOS Power Play. It’s a strong spot that’s hard to argue with. I think you can go to either side of ANH/VAN – and I prefer the ANH side. If you play BOS/ANH I would advise steering away from Cutter Gauthier’s massive ownership though. I think SEA1 is also firmly in play for small fields as an alternative to VAN/ANH.
In larger fields, I love the spot for SEA. TB1, MIN PP, PIT1/PP, and PHI1 are the other standouts. The meta all year has been the more balanced builds on these large slates and it makes sense. I wouldn’t go off the deep end trying to play EDM or COL tonight at their 6-8% ownership. If I’m playing someone expensive I’d rather go to TB1 or the BUF PP at 1-2% and just hope I jump the whole field.
NHL Defense
- I don’t see any defensemen having ownership of note tonight besides maybe Morgan Reilly (4400), Filip Hronek (4300), and Jackson LaCombe (5100) between 12-15%. It’s hard to argue with Hronek on PP1 playing 25 minutes/night. He’s got the Quinn Hughes role against Anaheim (although he’s a wildly worse player).
- Brandon Montour (5200) and Vince Dunn (4700) will have double digit ownership, but they’re underpriced here. I do not mind Adam Larsson (3200) or Ryker Evans (2500) for SEA either. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3100) is a reasonable cheap guy on the other side.
- Erik Karlsson looks super strong in the mid-tier at 4800.
- I like all the defensemen in NSH/NJ as well. Roman Josi (7000) has finally picked it up. Him, Quinn Hughes (7900), and Evan Bouchard (7500) all look solid on the high end. Rasmus Dahlin (6700) is also solid
- Some Random guys I like: Noah Dobson (5000), Tony DeAngelo 4100), Brock Faber (5200), Justin Faulk (3700), Artyom Levshunov (3300), Zack Whitecloud (2600)
Synopsis: Any of the popular guys I listed are fine. This slate is so huge just play whomever you want
NHL Goalies
- It’s going to be very flat with 30 options out there. Juuse Saros (7300) and Jake Oettinger (7400) are two brand names at cheap prices people will be drawn to
- Playing one of the goalies from ANH/VAN makes a lot of sense
- Confirmed: Swayman (BOS), Dobes (MTL), Hellebuyck (WPG), Silovs (PIT), Gibson (DET), Gustavsson (MIN)
- Unconfirmed: Everyone Else
NHL Stacks and Theory
- BOS/ANH or VAN is probably the chalk such as it is. It’s a huge slate though. Don’t worry about ownership too much
- I really like TOR/SEA and PHI/BOS as two spots where both teams really need to win every game.
- More balanced builds with a 4/3/1 or 3/3/2 structure have the best win rates on these slates YTD. That’s probably the framework which I’d be working within tonight
- plenty of cheap lines with PP correlation. SEA1, PHI1, and possibly both STL1 and STL2 on the cheap end really stand out.
- I’m not sure what to do with the DET ownership tonight. Kane is definitely underpriced for being on PP1 now though.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – BOS PP and the ANH/VAN game are the standouts, but don’t sleep on SEA either.
In larger fields – I like PIT, the NSH/NJ game, SEA, PHI1, TB1, and STL1 or 2 as a low owned cheap line if you want to spend up.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm