Welcome back to NHL DFS – we have an 8 game slate on tap for tonight. I’m excited to be back so lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- We have a clear chalk build tonight – and it’s WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) and DAL1 (Johnston/Robertson/Bourque). Both of these teams have been impacted by injuries. WPG will be without Josh Morrissey. Dallas will be without both Roope Hintz and Mikko Rantanen. Winnipeg moving Vilardi to the top line and the Dallas injuries both dictate that these lines will play heavy minutes against weak opponents in Vancouver and Seattle. I have DAL1 at 25% owned and WPG1 at 22%. They are both strong plays and project well, but If I’m picking one it’s Winnipeg. Dallas is just really depleted at this point – and my tendency is to fade chalky teams with depleted rosters. This is especially true when they are up against a competant defensive line in SEA1 and a goalie having a strong season in Grubauer.
- The third line that will accrue substantial ownership is VGK1 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Barbashev) against the Kings. This is another situation where we have a really depleted team. Vegas will be without all of Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Shea Theodore, and Noah Hanifin. What I will note about this line is that – after posting 3.4 expected goals per 60 last season – Hertl/Dorofeyev are down at 2.3 xG per 60 this year. They simply have not been good. It’s possible that Rasmus Andersson moving up to first pairing helps them move the puck better, but it’s not like he’s elite at that. I have VGK1 at 16% – but I definitely question weather they are worth that ownership given the above, a poor game environment, and a matchup against a solid goalie in Kuemper (presumably).
- There are quite a few expensive lines on the board tonight. All of EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins), COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen), and TB2 (Guentzel/Hagel/?) are on the slate tonight. Cirelli sounds doubtful – so we’ll see what they do with their lines as the day goes on. I would expect EDM1 to get the most traction here – but with most of the ownership going to one-offs or two-man combos of guys like McDavid, Bouchard, and Draisaitl. They are facing Anaheim in a game with a whopping 7 total. I expect them to come in around 8-10% – with EDM2 (Draisaitl/Roslovic/Podkolzin) coming in at about the same number. COL1 probably get their bare minimum 6% in a piss poor matchup against Utah. It’s certainly viable to play them at that ownership – or EDM1 for that matter – as either could just blow the slate apart. COL1 is awesome and Anaheim is just really bad. Who knows how these players react to losing the Olympic final though. I could see them coming out guns blazing or completely lethargic. I have no idea what to expect.
- Tampa is another discussion all together. We have a strong projection on TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Concalves) tonight and a whopping 4.3 total for Tampa Bay against this Toronto team that has been terrible defensively. I am generally opposed to playing a $9600 skater in Kucherov – but the line itself is priced competitively. If you want to play them in a smaller field – fine. Tampa’s lines are very much up in the air though with Cirelli likely out though. Check back before lock.
- Based on what we are seeing for ownership distribution – I think there are a few spots that fit the description of lines to consider across most contests with a minimum size of the $333 tonight. The first one I will mention is SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/McCann). They are facing this depleted Dallas team and their backup goalie Casey DeSmith with full power play correlation at only 14.4. Yes – their team total is terrible and the matchup is technically bad. However, there is absolutely no guarantee that Dallas is remotely the same team missing all these guys. That combined with strong numbers so far this season, a solid projection from us, and almost zero ownership makes this a very intriguing spot to attack. It’s probably one best reserved for the $5, $20, or something of a similar field size though.
- It’s also worth discussing this BUF/NJ game. BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs) and NJ1 (Hischier/Meier/Mercer) both project for around 10% ownership. They seem fine. I think it’s definitely worth highlighting the return of Josh Norris for Buffalo. New Jersey isn’t a penalty-happy team by any means – but The Sabres Power Play has been absolutely elite with Norris running it. He really allows Thompson to focus on scoring – which is the best fit for him. We have an excellent projection on BUF3 (Norris/Doan/Ostlund) and I think going to a cheap line like that with two integral parts of their PP (Doan is the net front guy) makes a ton of sense tonight. I think a Thompson/Norris/Doan/Dahlin stack is also firmly in play for all field sizes.
- We also finally saw Jack Hughes at full strength during the Olympics. NJ2 (Hughes/Bratt/Brown) is also fully correlated on the Power Play tonight. I would not be surprised if they ended up 10% owned and NJ1 ended up at 6% – but we will see. I think a Glass/Gritsyuk/Nemec stack is also firmly in play. NJ2 is my favorite line from the Devils side, but the cheap NJ3 stack makes a ton of sense as well. The Sabres depth is simply not good defensively – even by Sabres standards. This game is definitely one to attack
- The other lines that fit the description of what has been very successful so far on slates of this size are PHI1 (Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny), ANH2 (Granlund/Gauthier/McTavish), and WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Protas). Anaheim is obviously in this game with a huge total – and the return of Leo Carlsson is massive for their offense. It really started to struggle when he went down. I think ANH2 or Carlsson/Gauthier/Granlund/LaCombe are viable options against this Edmonton team that might be asleep at the switch and has the same goaltending issues as always. I do think this PHI/WSH game is a bit of a sleeper tonight. WSH1 does not have full power play correlation, but Jake Chycrun will be on first pairing with John Carlson out. That combined with a weak defensive line in PHI1 makes for a strong spot at around 5% ownership. I also think PHI1 (Dvorak/Zegras/Konecny) is very viable. They’re fully correlated on the power play and – while they don’t take a ton of penalties – the Capitals penalty kill is dreadful. There’s definitely upside here at 1-2% ownership.
- Our model really likes the value on both TOR1 (Matthews/Domi/McMann) and TOR2 (Tavares/Maccelli/Nylander). It’s a tough spot against Tampa, but TOR2 is fully correlated on the Power Play against this chippy Tampa team. There should not be much ownership here. I think TOR2 or a TOR PP stack make for an intriguing play at lower ownership in something like the $5 or $20 where Matthews might actually be viable at his super low ownership number. If you just want a cheap guy to make something work – Nic Robertson (2900) is one of the best players in hockey from a point/minute standpoint.
- I know it will illicit groans from everyone – but I do think the Kings are an interesting team tonight. You can pretty much throw out any numbers that Vegas has put up this year. They are missing half their roster – and most of their best defensive players. I definitely do not hate going to LA1 (Panarin/Kempe/Laferriere), LA2 (Kopitar/Moore/Byfield), or an LA Power Play stack of some kind. When you take Theodore and Hanifin off the ice you put the more penalty-prone guys like Lauzon, McNabb, and Hutton out there more. You also really water down the defensive ability of this team – who has had shaky goaltending all year. The numbers will hate this spot, but I think it’s a really interesting large field spot to attack – on par with Toronto.
- If you just need a cheap line my list is as follows: BUF3, Gritsyuk/Glass/Nemec, TB3 (assuming they stay together), LA2, BUF2
In smaller fields – I think any of WPG1, DAL1, or VGK1 are fine. They’re all underpriced. WPG1 would be my preference though. After looking at the data for smaller field stuff – there’s just no way I play two chalk lines. It just isn’t +EV on a slate this size. ANH2/PP, WSH1, and NJ2 all look like strong options in the mid-tier. I also think it’s entirely viable to do something like dip down to BUF3 so you can pay for two defensemen.
In large fields, There’s a bunch of options tonight. I definitely like BUF/NJ, but I think PHI/WSH is a real sleeper game tonight. I’m not scared of Logan Thompson. SEA1 and the Kings are also in better spots than people think due to the depleted rosters of their opponents. You can also look to mid-tier lines like TOR2 and COL2 that have been excellent all year. If I’m going to a PP tack tonight it’s probably BUF or LAK though.
NHL Defense
- Rasmus Dahlin (6300), Jake Chycrun (6500), and Evan Bouchard (7300) look like the highest owned guys at 12-17% each. I think this is a strong slate to be spending up at defense given how many minutes Chycrun is likely to see as their only puck mover on the blue line. Dougie Hamilton (5500) and Rasmus Andersson (5300) probably come in around 10% each.
- Logan Stanley (2700) is your cheap power play du jour. He’s not a puck mover and he has no business on an NHL power play. He is significantly worse at this particular role than Klingberg or Rinzel – both of whom I’ve ragged on. That said – these guys do perform well and show decent EV. He should be around 8-10% owned.
- I like Jackson LaCombe (5000), Brandt Clarke (4800), Darnell Nurse (4200), Victor Hedman (4000), and Vince Dunn (4400) in the mid-tier
- Darren Raddysh (6600) is fine as a pivot away from the higher owned expensive guys – but that’s a steep price for him in a spot that probably will not feature many power plays.
- On the cheaper end I like Adam Larsson (3500), Jamie Drysdale (3400), Ryan McDonagh (3000), Zeev Buium (3000), Marcus Pettersson (2700), and Jeremy Lauzon (2600).
Dahlin and Chycrun are both owned – but look outstanding. I have no objection to eating ownership on those guys. You can also play one of the expensive guys in the UTIL for some leverage in the $333. I’m much more luke-warm on Stanley. I think there are other cheap guys with zero ownership that project about the same. LaCombe, Clarke, and Dunn all look really strong as well. It’s a deep pool here tonight
NHL Goalies
- My guess is the Vegas goalie (7600), Nikolai Tolopilo (6500), Casey DeSmith (8200), and Eric Comrie (7900) all end up around 10-12%. It looks pretty flat
- I definitely like playing whomever the goalies end up being for Seattle or Los Angeles. Lukas Dostal (7500) is really interesting as well.
- You could also play Logan Thompson (8100) or whomever the TB goalie is (8200) I suppose. I’m not enthusiastic though
- Confirmed: Allen (NJ), Thompson (WSH), Stolarz (TOR), Desmith (DAL), Comrie (WPG), Tolopilo (VAN), Dostal (ANH)
- Unconfirmed: Luukkonnen (BUF), Vladar (PHI), Vasilevsky (TB), Daccord (SEA), Wedgewood (COL), Vejmelka (UTA), Hill (VGK), Forsberg (LAK), Jarry (EDM)
Stacks and Theory
- WPG1, DAL1, and VGK1 are the chalk lines tonight. I’m fine with WPG1, but I’m not going near the other two.
- I mentioned in my contest review series that you generally want to be between 60-95% ownership in the contests I surveyed. Fading these 3 lines looks like a strong start. There’s a ton of power play correlated lines and combinations to go with tonight.
- 4/3/1 was the dominant winning roster construction on slates this size. There’s really no need to get fancy with the 5 or 6-man stacks.
- There are enough solid plays at defense to justify playing one at flex – especially in the $333
- I listed a ton of lines as solid NHL DFS plays above. The ones that stand out the most are SEA1, WSH1, BUF PP, BUF3, NJ2, PHI1, and probably TOR2
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – I’m ok with WPG1 – but you will need to keep your ownership down with the rest of your lineup. WSH1, LA1 or TOR2 would be my favorites there. Anaheim might be ok too. I do think BUF2 and BUF3 are outstanding plays – and spending down on one of them to get two expensive defenders makes a ton of sense. Three defensemen is entirely viable in the $333 per usual
In larger fields – There’s a lot to like. ANH2, SEA1, NJ2, LA1, WSH1, PHI1, TOR2, and everything BUF look like strong options tonight. I do really like spending up for two defensemen – or outright playing 3 of them – as well. I think there are some strong cheap lines tonight in SEA1, BUF2, BUF3, and LAK2.
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 4 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm