Welcome to Thursday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 12 game slate on tap for tonight. I’m excited to be back so lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- We – once again – have a pretty clear chalk build tonight. It will be SJ1 (Celebrini/Sherwood/Smith) paired with a STL Power Play stack (Kyrou/Buchnevich/Dvorsky) or CGY1 (Coranato/Backlund/Sharangovich. I have SJ1 at a whopping 25% ownership. This particular STL stack and CGY1 both come in at 12%. It’s very hard for me to get behind San Jose at that ownership number on a slate this size. I would have to be in a tiny contest to even consider it. The Flames aren’t even a particularly bad defensive team – but San Jose projects really well industry-wide and Celebrini is awesome. We are definitely more bearish on them than other outlets though. I don’t have a big problem with CGY1 or STL2 at those prices. However, I would not necessarily expect many opportunities for the Blues power play tonight. I’d rather just play Jake Neighbours instead of Dvorsky.
- One thing I will say about the Flames and Blues – I would consider their entire rosters questionable tonight. The Flames are actively looking to deal players like Blake Coleman, Nazem Kadri, Kevin Bahl, and maybe even MacKenzie Weegar. The Blues are also heavily shopping Jordan Kyrou – and he’s seen as almost a lock to get traded. It’s fine to play them – but be paying attention and prepare to pivot before their respective games lock.
- BOS1 (Pastrnak/Lindholm/Khusnutdinov), FLA1 (Lundell/Reinhart/Verhaege), and LAK1 (Laferriere/Kempe/Panarin) look like they are all coming in around 10%. They are all in solid spots against poor defenses. FLA1 and LAK1 are probably in the stronger spots. FLA definitely has a strong total for us at 3.75 – and I still do not trust the minutes on Tkachuk and Marchand. Columbus has been better lately and I’m just not really on board with 22% owned David Pastrnak at 9K.
- It’s a 12 game slate – so pick your favorite spots beyond San Jose basically. I’ll go over a few of my favorites though – starting with Columbus. I suspect that CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchment/Marchenko) will be substantially more popular than the 3% ownership I have them at. It’s just too good of a power play spot, they’re fully correlated, and facing a backup goalie in Korpisalo. I absolutely love them here. You could also go to CBJ3 (Coyle/Olivier/Sillinger) if you need a cheap line
- The second team I want to talk about is Nashville. This is a very strong spot for NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista). The same goes for NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseault/Forsberg). CHI1 and CHI2 are both dreadful defensively – and it’s in Nashville so it will be harder for the Blackhawks to get The Dickinson line matched up with NSH1 or 2. This is also likely to be a high-volume power play spot for the Preds. However, the Chicago PK and Spencer Knight have both been excellent all year despite allowing a ton of high danger chances. These lines should both have 5-7% ownership and that’s totally fine. If you want something lower owned – I think you can definitely look to CHI2 (Nazar/Bertuzzi/Moore) or CHI3 (Donato/Dickinson/Mikheyev). The Nashville depth – especially the Haula/Marchesseault combination – is absolutely dreadful defensively. I like them both and it just depends what price range you’re shopping in. CHI3 has statistically been better than CHI2 for whatever that’s worth.
- Sens Mob Rise Up! If you read my article on offensive and defensive lines over the break – you know I really like the Sens in the second half. They’ve far underperformed their numbers so far – and these line combinations have all been very good offensively. OTT is at home – so I would expect OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins) to match up against DET1 and chase them around most of the night. That leaves OTT2 (Cozens/Tkachuk/Greig) and OTT1 (Stuetzle/Giroux/Batherson) with some pretty advantageous depth matchups tonight at almost zero ownership. When Mo Seider leaves the ice – the DET defense pretty much collapses. OTT3 is a great value, but OTT2 is one of my favorite lines on the entire slate. Any of the three lines look solid to me. It just depends on what price range you’re shopping in.
- It’s hard to look at this slate and just ignore this Minnesota/Colorado game. It’s going to be fast, has a big total, and there’s tons of high-end talent here. The Minnesota defense and goaltending have been excellent this year – but COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Nichushkin) is a lot to handle offensively and they have done very well against the Wild so far this year. I like COL2 (Nelson/Lehkonen/Landeskog) quite a bit here as well – maybe even more than COL1. They’re fully correlated on the power play against this MIN PK that is always dreadful and quite a bit cheaper. They also probably get to avoid MIN1 – which has been pretty stout defensively. That said – I do not mind going to the Minnesota side here either. I am always an advocate of attacking COL1 – which simply is not good defensively – at low ownership. They are definitely below CBJ, NSH, and OTT for me though. Large field only.
- I want to touch on is Montreal quickly. I am a huge fan of Ilya Sorokin. I think he has been the best goalie in hockey – all factors considered. That said – we do have a high total for MTL. MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Dach) and MTL2 (Kapanen/Slafkovsky/Demidov) are both firmly in play here. I don’t hate a Suzuki/Caufield 2-man either. They’re fine – but this game has a chance to be a real low-event stinker.
- Yeah – we have to talk about the Leafs again. They are in a true loser-goes-home game against the Panthers tonight. Both teams absolutely need to win here. I’m probably out on the Matthews line – because I just don’t like playing a line with Max Domi on it against FLA1’s elite defense. TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli) is fully correlated on the Power Play against this Penalty-Happy Panthers team and their shaky goaltending. I like them a fair amount once again.
- you can also go to CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov) against penalty-prone Tampa and shaky Jonas Johansson. The field also seems to like the Rangers. I’m just staying away though.
- In the cheap lines department we have: PIT3 (Mantha/Kindel/Brazeau), CHI2 (Bertuzzi/Nazar/Moore), PIT2 (Malkin/Novak/Chinakov), OTT3 (Pinto/Amadio/Cousins), and STL1 (Schenn/Snuggerud/Holloway) as my favorites.
In smaller fields – I have a very hard time eating that ownership on San Jose. I definitely like CBJ1, LAK1, and NSH1 in those formats. We do have a few solid value lines – so I don’t hate playing COL1 in an event like the $333 either. I do not like paying that for MacKinnon – and prefer COL2 + Makar – but you could do it.
In large fields, There’s a bunch of options tonight. NSH1, NSH2, and CBJ1 are at the top of my list with all 3 Ottawa lines behind them. CAR1, MTL1/2, COL2, MIN1, PHI1, and TOR2 also seem like solid plays. You can still go to LAK1, FLA1, or BOS1 here if you want. I’m putting a full fade on the CGY/SJ game though. Lots of ownership and plenty of uncertainty on the Calgary side. I thinkk it’s a strong spot to fade.
NHL Defense
- I have Roman Josi (7500), John Klingberg (3900), Justin Faulk (4000), and Brandt Clarke (4900) all around 15%. I am not playing chalk John Klingberg. It’s such an awful idea that I’m sure he will be the nuts now. I’ll probably pass on Faulk too. I do like Roman Josi tonight.
- Zack Werenski (8200), Cale Makar (8000), and Quinn Hughes (7800) all look like strong alternatives to Josi. I have Werenski at 10%, Makar at 7%, and Hughes at 2%. I like all three – but if Minnesota competes in this game it will be because Quinn Hughes is awesome.
- I talked extensively over the break about how good some of these OTT defensemen have been. Jake Sanderson (6300) looks great at low ownership. So does Mo Seider (5600) on the other side. Thomas Chabot (4700), Tyler Kleven (2700), Jordan Spence (2500), and Nick Jensen (2500) all look like acceptable plays as well. They’ve all posted solid expected offensive numbers.
- Vince Dunn (4400), Brandon Montour (4800), Noah Dobson (5000), Shayne Gostisbehere (5100), and Morgan Reilly (4400) all look like solid options in the mid-tier tonight
- Sam Rinzel (3400) and Jamie Drysdale (3500) are also there as cheap PP defensemen. Hampus Lindholm (3500) likely steps in to run the Boston Power Play if McAvoy is still too drunk to play.
If you want to play Klingberg in a small field – fine. I’m just not a fan of lousy guys like Klingberg and Faulk at ownership. I’d much prefer to just find the money to get Vince Dunn or Morgan Reilly. Just a reminder about how well double defensemen performed in our contest review. San Jose definitely has multiple well-projected guys you can play. I really do like the high end guys tonight in Josi, Werenski, Hughes, and Makar though. I think all the Ottawa guys make strong plays at zero ownership as well.
NHL Goalies
- Ilya Sorokin is still 7400 for some reason – so I’m pretty sure he will be the chalk at 12-15%. Jacob Markstrom (7200) probably comes in after him at 10-12%.
- Dustin Wolf (7500) makes a ton of sense tonight if you’re not playing Sharks. He should be well-rested and ready to go.
- Igor Shesterkin (7600) is also too cheap – though he’s probably around 10% as well.
- Confirmed: Merzlikins (CBJ), Korpisalo (BOS), Ullmark (OTT), Bobrovsky (FLA), Sorokin (NYI), Montembeault (MON), Silovs (PIT), Knight (CHI), Hofer (STL), Shesterkin (NYR), Gustavsson (MIN), Askarov (SJ),
- Unconfirmed: Bussi (CAR), Johansson (TB), Gibson (DET), Woll (TOR), Markstrom (NJ), Saros (NSH), Grubauer (SEA), Ersson (PHI), Blackwood (COL), Wolf (CGY), Kuemper (LA), Ingram (EDM)
Stacks and Theory
- SJ1 and Klingberg is the clear chalk. It’s just too much ownership on a slate this size for me. I’ll just fade that game and take my chances. Fading this game will go a long way to getting your ownership quotient into that 60-95% range I talked about.
- There’s a ton to like on this slate – starting with CBJ1, CAR1, TOR2, COL2, and NSH1 for me. The mid-tier lines with power play correlation have posted solid EV all year – and I see no reason to get too far away from that.
- I love everything about the Senators at low ownership. Pick a line in whatever price range you need. Brady Tkachuk is my top one-off of the slate.
- MIN1 looks like an excellent large field contrarian play.
- I’m sticking to 4/3/1, 3/3/2, or 3/3/1/1 here. It’s a big slate. 5-man stacks just aren’t really necessary.
- I really like the expensive defensemen here in Josi, Werenski, Q. Hughes, and Makar. Reilly and Dunn are my favorite guys to play instead of chalky Faulk or Klingberg.
- Be aware of the volatility with Calgary, St. Louis, and the Rangers. Be prepared to pivot if guys get scratched.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I’m still probably just out on SJ1 and Calgary. CBJ1, CAR1, LAK1, COL2, and NSH1 all seem like fine targets for smaller fields. Morgan Reilly and Vince Dunn provide reasonable pivots away from chalkier cheap defensemen like Clarke, Faulk, and Klingberg.
In larger fields – it’s wide open. Play whomever you like. I am just sticking to my theory of power play-correlated lines without super expensive skaters (where possible). I love spending up at defense and the MIN/COL game as well. Good luck tonight!
*Ownership will be updated to reflect this article by roughly 4 ET.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm