Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a huge 10 game slate, so let’s get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- This slate has ownership in a number of different spots – and that is reflected on the site. However there’s two main decision points to dive into – and the first one is what to do with the Oilers. I have both EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins) and EDM2 (Draisaitl/Savoie/Podkolzin) around 14% owned each. They are in a truly terrific spot against a BUF team that is dreadful defensively, commits plenty of penalties, and is on the tail end of a road B2B after getting blown out by a bad Calgary team last night. I could even see the ownership being even higher here than I currently have it. I think if you play the Oilers, just go for it and play their best players. They are so expensive you’re hoping the team scores at least 6 even if you just play EDM1. You might as well capture all the production. It’s very much a full stack or fade spot for me.
- The Second spot I want to discuss is PHI2 (Couturier/Tippett/Michkov). The industry has some extremely high 20% ownership numbers on them. I believe they will be substantially owned in smaller fields, but in large fields like the $5 or $20 I see them being closer to 15% than low 20s. I just don’t see that many people playing a line that isn’t fully correlated on the power play from a bad team at over 20% on a 10 game slate. I suspect more of that ownership goes to EDM2 and CAR2. Our model is slightly under the industry on them, but I am totally fine with them at 15% for 13K in large fields. I’m not touching them in smaller fields at ownership in the 20s.
- We will also see around 15% ownership on both MTL1 (Suzuki/Slafkovsky/Caufield) and PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Novak). They are both in strong spots, however I suspect PIT is the higher owned of the two against this Anaheim team that is pretty terrible defensively. Other outlets have them at 20% and above, but I think some of that ownership goes to the Anaheim side. Overall, I like both lines in small field. I prefer PIT there and MTL in larger fields.
- Our matchups tool likes CAR the best by far. It also likes COL, VGK, and ANH. Line Marketshares loves CAR1 and COL1. I’m always tepid on CAR due to how spread out the scoring gets – and that continues to be true tonight.
- Our projections are higher than the Industry on BOS1, CBJ1, OTT2, BUF1, and ANH2.
- Ok so let’s talk about this CBJ/CAR game. The pace of this game is going to be extremely high – and we know this is a great spot for CAR. However, I think this is an under-rated spot for CBJ as well. Carolina prefers to get out, push the tempo, and play off the rush. This creates a ton of opportunities for them, but also puts a ton of pressure on a corps of defensemen that are pretty sub-par. That could definitely be a problem against CBJ1 – who are very fast and happy to go up and down the ice with anyone. I’m not sure that helps Zach Werenski as much as the other skaters, but he’s still by far the top defensemen on my board. I really do like this game quite a bit. Everybody – including the goaltenders – has a ton of upside here. It doesn’t seem like either side will garner too much ownership – with the exception of CAR2 garnering around 8%.
- I really like this spot for DAL2 tonight (Johnston/Rantanen/Duchene) at sub-5% ownership. 3200 for Matt Duchene and 3500 for Thomas Harley are egregious prices. These guys were 5K each before they got hurt and they are critical puck movers for this Dallas offense at even strength. This WPG team has really never been great defensively. They’ve always relied on Connor Hellebuyck to bail them out. Well, now he’s hurt. You can go to DAL1 (Hintz/Robertson/Benn) or a power play stack here as well. I think a healthier Dallas team could certainly just blow the Jets away tonight.
- COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) is the best line in hockey. They’re also 2K more expensive than any other line and Necas/Lehkonen project terribly everywhere. MacKinnon will still get his 12-15% ownership, but the other guys will get 3-4%. It’s fine if you want to play them, but you are giving up a lot of salary and losing significant projection by doing so.
- Two other spots I want to highlight – David Pastrnak is questionable tonight. However, we have BOS1 as the highest projected line on the board – at almost no ownership – going up against this Blues team that has been terrible defensively and gotten some of the worst goaltending in the NHL. Playing the late swap game and plugging in BOS1 will be a highly leveraged thing to do if he does play. I also want to highlight a Vegas Power Play stack. You can pick any 3-4 of their guys. This is going to be a high-paced game against an Islanders team that is dreadful defensively, but gets excellent goaltending from Sorokin. The ownership here should be pretty moderate. Any of the 3 even strength lines are fine as well. I also think you can go to NYI2 (Barzal/Pageau/Lee) as a secondary stack. NYI has typically used them as a shutdown line so they have the upside for 19-20 minutes tonight at 13.1K. They make a solid pivot away from PHI2 or EDM2.
Synopsis:
In smaller fields, I think EDM1 or an EDM PP stack is fine. I also think doing something like PIT1/CBJ1 is firmly in play. I wouldn’t feel bound to play a super-high owned EDM2 or PHI2 though. That is where the heavy small field chalk will be.
In large fields, I think DAL is an extremely sharp play. I also suspect PHI2 comes in lower owned than projected elsewhere. They seem fine around 15%, but you can’t exactly go play them with EDM1 in the $5 and hope to have enough leverage either. BOS1, CAR1, CBJ1, OTT2, and the Vegas Power Play seem like pretty strong primary stacks as well. I definitely like NYI2 as a contrarian secondary stack here as well.
NHL Defense
- The clear chalk here is one of Evan Bouchard (6500) or Jake Sanderson (6300). I would imagine the field will use a guy like Thomas Harley (3500), Matthias Ekholm (3900) or Sean Walker (3700) to save some salary.
- I still like Harley – even with the ownership. He’s just flat-out underpriced. I do think Miro Heiskanen (6400) is a very strong large field GPP play though
- It’s a great night to play Zach Werenski (8400) or Cale Makar (8500) at mid single-digit ownership.
- I think Ivan Provorov (3400) is a sneaky attachment to a CBJ stack. He’s playing a boatload of minutes next to Werenski and doesn’t project for any ownership.
- A few non-PP guys I like: Noah Dobson (5200), Darnell Nurse (4500), Mike Matheson (4200), Philip Broberg (3600), Ivan Provorov (3400), Ryan Pulock (3100), Adam Pelech (3100), Brady Skjei (2800), Brett Kulak (2500)
Synopsis: In smaller fields – one of Bouchard/Sanderson makes sense. I think Werenski is a really strong play though. It’s a great game environment. In large field, both Dallas guys look like strong plays. Same goes for either of the first pairing MTL defensemen or cheap guys mentioned above. I love Werenski in large fields.
NHL Goalies
- Jeremy Swayman (7300) is the chalk in the mid-teens. Scott Wedgewood (8400) comes in around 12%. Ilya Sorokin (7400) probably gets some ownership as a cheap guy
- I don’t mind Jet Greaves (7100) or Brandon Bussi (8300). It’s likely to be a shot-rich game environment
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- There are several spots where ownership is concentrating tonight. EDM and PHI2 are the big ones you will need to decide on.
- I want to reiterate how good of a spot this is for Columbus. Carolina is a bad defensive team coasting on reputation and this game will be played in transition. That suits Columbus incredibly well. Either side of this game has big upside, but I trust the scoring equity of CBJ1 the most.
- This is also a very strong spot for DAL2 considering how underpriced Duchene and Harley are in relation to earlier in the year
- If Pastrnak plays, BOS1 is the top large field spot on the board to attack. There won’t be any ownership there. I think pluggin in DAL or somebody in the later games and deciding an hour in makes a ton of sense
- It’s pretty wide open with a lot of well-projected stuff. I wouldn’t feel too bound to the chalk in smaller fields tonight.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller fields – you’ve got some choices. Eat the EDM or PHI chalk if you want, but this CBJ/CAR game could pretty easily be the nuts. I definitely think EDM1 is the way to go among the higher owned lines though.
In large fields, it’s pretty wide open. I think you can overstack EDM or Power Play stack PHI with lower owned stuff around it if you want. I just prefer DAL, BOS, VGK, OTT, or the CBJ/CAR game.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm