Welcome back to another day of NHL DFS. We have a massive 13-game slate – so let’s dive in!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
This article was updated for NHL lines and injuries at 5 pm ET. Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
NHL DFS Lines
- It’s a massive slate, so ownership definitely does not matter as much. However, there are two lines that project for 12-14% ownership: WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Iafallo) and NYI1 (Horvat/Heineman/Shabanov). This is obviously an elite spot for WPG against this Boston team that just cannot stay out of the box. The ownership isn’t prohibitive and they look great, but that is a bit of ownership to eat on a slate with this kind of opportunity cost. If you like them, play them. They are underpriced. The Islanders are in a great spot against this Ducks team that really struggles defensively. It’s a great spot for them, but I will note that we have a far superior projection on NYI2 (Barzal/Lee/Pageau). I prefer them to NYI1 – as they simply play more minutes than NYI1 at about half the ownership. I don’t hate a full power play stack there either.
- It’s hard to really talk about slates like this due to the size. It’s pretty much a free-for-all. PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Novak), BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs), and TOR1 (Matthews/Kneis/Domi) will accrue 9-10% ownership each as well. I could see people flocking to Austin Matthews and him ending up over 20% owned though. The field loves to pick on the Sharks – and even moreso with Askarov out. However, I think TOR1’s ownership will be boosted by a very highly owned Matthews. EDM2 (Draisaitl/Podkolzin/Savoie) and CBJ2 (Monahan/Johnson/Jenner) will probably see the same phenomenon with Draisaitl and dirt cheap Jenner inflating their ownership.
- Our matchups tool likes ANH, NYI, COL, and CAR among others. Line Marketshares likes WPG1 and COL1.
- What stands out to me right away in our projections is two things: 1) COL1 (Mackinnon/Necas/Lehkonen) projects about 8 points better than anything else and 2) We are very far above the industry on FLA2 (Bennett/Verhaege/Marchand) in the same game. FLA2 is not going to have any ownership at all. Maybe not even 2%. That’s a large field GPP spot worth attacking. I think COL1 is the clear small field play here. I don’t really think it’s a discussion. There are plenty of cheap lines you can play with them as long as you don’t play Makar. Necas and Lehkonen are unlikely to carry much ownership, so I’m not worried about the inevitable 15-20% that MacKinnon ends up with.
- On the value side, there are options aplenty in our projections. NSH2 (Forsberg/Marchesseault/Haula), NYI2 (Pageau/Lee/Barzal), VAN2 (O’Connor/Kane/Sherwood), and VGK3 (Hertl/Dorofeyev/Smith) all project well and pique my interest.
- CBJ2 (Monahan/Johnson/Jenner) projects incredibly well for us and also for 11-12% ownership. Boone Jenner (2600) is simply way underpriced. However, it’s a huge slate and a wildly variant sport. Play him if you really need him, but I don’t really want to eat 15% ownership on a guy just coming back from injury on a slate this size. I’d stay away from him as a one-off in large fields. He’s totally fine to just eat in small fields though.
Synopsis:
These huge slates are always tough. However, if you trust our projections just play COL1 and go from there. VAN2 (O’Connor/Kane/Sherwood) is probably my favorite line to pair with them, but NSH2, NYI2, and VGK3 are interesting as well.
In large fields, our projections tell us that FLA2 is the standout play of the slate. They will not carry any ownership and you can easily pair them with whatever other well-projected line you prefer. There’s so much to sort through on slates like this and so many good plays I won’t be able to mention. I would encourage you to choose your own adventure.
NHL Defense
- Rasmus Dahlin (6100), Jake Sanderson (6400), Evan Bouchard (6700), and Matthew Schaefer (5500) all probably come in around 12-15%. Playing at least one of them will be a popular move
- I always like paying for Cale Makar (8200) and Zach Werenski (7900) on these big slates because the ownership gets diluted and their ceilings are the highest by a fair amount.
- Roman Josi (6100), Erik Karlsson (5600), Jackson LaCombe (4700), Seth Jones (4500), Darnell Nurse (4300), Devon Toews (3700), and Sean Walker (3700) are a few guys I like at lower ownership in various price ranges
- If you need a super cheap guy I think Gus Forsling (3100), Tony DeAngelo (2900) and Damon Severson (2800) are all perfectly fine.
Synopsis: In smaller fields – I would just play whichever of the chalk guys you like. I prefer Sanderson, but it’s up to you. In large field, I want to either pay up or play Josi with one of the guys I mentioned or someone else who projects well. IDK it’s hard to find an established edge here
NHL Goalies
- The chalk goalies are likely to be MacKenzie Blackwood and Logan Thompson around 12% each. Nobody will really have meaningful ownership
- I like Linus Ullmark (7600), Thatcher Demko (7400), and Juuse Saros (7800)
Synopsis: Play whoever you want
NHL Stacks and Theory
- The only three lines that are likely to see substantial ownership are WPG1, NYI1, and TOR1. It’s pretty easy to get around it though.
- The #1 thing I will be avoiding on this slate is Boone Jenner and Austin Matthews one-offs. The field will use Jenner to jam in another expensive one-off like MacKinnon or Matthews. I just don’t want to get into that construction
- I think paying up to Werenski or Makar makes a ton of sense. I also really like playing priced down Roman Josi tonight.
- FLA2 looks like a really sharp play according to our projections. I doubt the field plays them and they look great from a large field GPP standpoint.
- The Same goes for VAN2 on the cheap end. I really like this line from an ” I know puck” standpoint. There’s quite a bit of talent and firepower there in a good spot at a cheap price. I think they’re viable in all formats at 10.8
- Our model loves CBJ again. It always does though. Beware of possible bias from the model here.
For smaller fields – I’m playing COL1 with a cheaper line. You can do the Jenner one-off thing and drop Lehkonen to jam in Makar, but I’m not doing that. If you want to play chalky WPG, I think that’s fine. CBJ1 or FLA1 seem like ok pairings.
In large fields, it’s pretty wide open. I like FLA2, COL1, and VAN2 quite a bit. There’s really very little edge though so I suggest doing what your sims say. These huge slates are really tough.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm