Welcome to Thursday’s NHL DFS slate. We have a 14 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- The chalk here isn’t really going to be that chalky – at least when it comes to large field contests – but FWIW it’s SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Graf) and EDM1 (McDavid/Podkolzin/Savoie) at 12-13% each. The Oilers are facing Chicago – and we know that’s an advantageous spot – especially for the Power Play. Our model does not project EDM1 that well, but out matchups sheet loves this spot for EDM considering all the high danger chances CHI allows. The Sharks are very talented and the Leafs are a strong matchup, but this game projects to be played at a snails’ pace. The Sharks are going to be reliant on efficency and the Power Play. It’s not a high-volume power play spot. They do project really well from a point/$ standpoint though.
- You can absolutely….ugh….go to the Leafs power play opposite the Sharks. They could always just commit a bunch of penalties and get killed. They have a wide range of outcomes.
- All of our tools are clear – the best play on the slate is Minnesota against Vancouver. We have them for a whopping 5 total, our model loves them, the sheets love them, and line marketshares loves them. It’s a strong spot for a great power play and an excellent even strength matchup. Both MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello) and MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson) project extremely well and are toward the top of my board. You can even go to MIN3 (Yurov/Tarasenko/Brink) on the cheap. The only catch is that they may end up as the highest owned team by the end of the day. I’m not sure yet. It’s almost too good of a spot despite COL somehow losing to them last night. I do think you can go to the VAN side here as a sicko play. The MIN PK is still shaky, so you can absolutely go to the Power Play here. VAN1 (Debrusk/Pettersson/Ohgren) and VAN2 (BoeserRossi/O’Connor) both present strong value tonight at zero ownership.
- Our tools and model also really like Vegas tonight against Calgary. However, Tortarella dicking with the lines and shuffling them to Eichel/Howden/Dorofeyev and Marner/Stone/Barbashev isn’t exactly inspiring. He’s also unlikely to keep these lines together unless they pop off – which they could certainly do against Calgary. Tortarella teams just do not have the reputation of being high-powered offensively. They get a lead and then sit back in a neutral-zone trap.
- One game that does project pretty well – oddly enough – is PHI/DET. I obviously prefer the DET side. DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) have been excellent all year and DET1 (Larkin/Finnie/Mazur) is very cheap. The same goes for PHI. PHI1 (Zegras/Tippett/Foerster) and PHI2 (Dvorak/Konecny/Martone) are simply underpriced tonight. This is a game to look at for some cheap value.
- This BOS/FLA game is likely to be physical and have a ton of variance. You can certainly go to the power play from either side here, but there’s just other spots I’ll go to first
- Such as the CAR/CBJ game. The Carolina side looks outstanding, but per usual who knows which line to go to. CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov) projects ok in the raw and looks fine. CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Hall) are excellent as always. I’m not looking at the CBJ side here. They just don’t make the cut for me.
- You can go to DAL1 (Johnston/Rantanen/Robertson or TB1 (Point/Kucherov/Guentzel) on the super-high end as well. Either could blow up for 5-6 goals. 22-23K is just a lot for a line on such a big slate.
- The BUF/OTT game is worth mentioning because my Senators’ season is on the line after faltering the last few games. I’m probably not going to BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs) – as there are better projected lines tonight and they’ll get the death matchup with the Pinto line. BUF2 (Zucker/Quinn/McLeod) and the BUF Power Play are always viable against this very shaky Sens goaltending with a depleted defense in front of them. Any of the 3 lines on the OTT side are fine. Their top 2 lines should see advantageous matchups against the BUF depth.
- I also think you can go to either side of the NJ/WSH game tonight. The first lines would be my preference here.
- The last team I will discuss here is PIT. We have definitely seen TB be shaky at times this year. Their depth lines in PIT3 (Brazeau/Rakell/Mantha) and PIT3 (Malkin/Kindel/Novak) project extremely well for us. You can also go to the Power Play here – as Tampa does take plenty of penalties.
In smaller fields – MIN is probably the ticket. You could go to San Jose, but I think the Wild are just better.
In large fields, choose your own adventure. I have no idea what to say on slates this big. Let the projections and sims guide you.
Defensemen
- Quinn Hughes (6900) and Evan Bouchard (7800) are the chalk at 18-20% owned. I assume Dmitry Orlov (3400) also gets into the low double digits. Nobody else should see meaningful ownership.
- Shayne Gostisbehere (4900) is just way too cheap. Brock Faber (5200), Noah Dobson (5000), Lane Hutson (5100), Brandon Montour (4800), and Vince Dunn (4000) all look like solid mid-tier plays.
- You can absolutely play both Faber and Hughes together
- Michael Benning (2500), Simon Nemec (3100), and Hunter Brzustewicz (2500) look like your cheap punts tonight.
The chalk seems fine, but I like the mid-tier much better. Gostisbehere, Faber, Dobson, and Dunn all look very strong tonight.
NHL Goalies
- Gustavsson (8500) and Swayman (8000) are 16 and 12% respectively.
- There’s 28 guys to choose from. Nobody will be that owned outside of those two guys. I guess Spencer Knight (7000) is your cheap guy and Logan Thompson (7500) is too cheap. I have no leans beyond that.
- Confirmed: Merzlikins (CBJ), Shesterkin (NYR), Gibson (DET), Ersson (PHI), Skinner (PIT), Ullmark (OTT), Swayman (BOS), Bobrovsky (FLA), Thompson (WSH), Hellebuyck (WPG), Oettinger (DAL), Gustavsson (MIN), Jarry (EDM), Hart (VGK), Wolf (CGY)
- Unconfirmed: Kuemper (LA), Saros (NSH), Vejmelka (UTA), Daccord (SEA), Woll (TOR), Nedeljkovic (SJ), Knight (CHI), Tolopilo (VAN), Allen (NJ), Luukonnen (BUF), Vasilevsky (TB), Fowler (MTL), Andersen (CAR),
Stacks and Theory
- The chalk lines are SJ1 and EDM1 as of now
- It’s a really wide open large field slate. I definitely like OTT, PIT, PHI, DET, CAR, and MIN
- I think it’s a 4/3/1 or 3/3 night.
- There’s plenty of excellent defensemen in the 4-5K range tonight. I’m not sure Hughes or Bouchard are necessary, but you can spend ownership there for sure
- These huge slates are the ones where the lineups with 30-40% ownership are totally fine. Those low numbers have a good tract record here whereas they don’t on slates below 10 games
- It’s a good night to save money at defense
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – MIN looks like the cream of the crop. Carolina seems good too
In larger fields – It’s wide open. There are a lot of good spots, so I’m inclined to be under on the chalk. There is strong upside in multiple spots tonight – so spread out.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm