Welcome to Tuesday’s NHL DFS slate – and the last week of regular season NHL DFS. We have a big 9 game slate on tap for tonight – so Lets get into it!
This NHL article is going to focus more on industry-wide NHL projections and ownership, some stuff that looks underowned, and the chalk construction. We’ll close with some game theory and leverage thoughts. Please tag me in discord (Kikikartier) with any feedback. Let’s dig in!
*If you have not read any of my contest review series – I will be referring to the findings consistently. I’d suggest at least reading the conclusion.
*I will be updating my thoughts and posting industry-consensus sims in NHL discord. so please check back.
This article was updated for lines and injuries at 1 pm ET. NHL Updates will occur throughout the day
Use this article in conjunction with the NHL models and Contest Sims to give yourself a real chance at winning each and every slate.
*Please consult dailyfaceoff or leftwinglock to verify goalies before lock. I’ll update a few hours before, but not everybody will be confirmed until 15 minutes before they start.
NHL DFS Lines
- So we have two chlk builds today. The first one is BOS1/CAR2 and the second is COL1/MIN1. If I’m going to a chalk team here it’s probably BOS1 (Pastrnak/Lindholm/Geekie) against New Jersey. The Bruins absolutely have something to play for – as they would much rather match up with Buffalo than Carolina – and these guys are underpriced in a strong matchup. I do not mind CAR2 (Hall/Stankoven/Blake) either, but I question A) Weather they rest them and actually play CAR1 instead and B) How much ice time they actually see if they do play. I do not mind well-projected MIN1 (Yurov/Tarasenko/Trenin) against this Anaheim team that continues to be terrible defensively. However, I do worry about the minutes on COL1 on the second leg of a B2B. Bednar seems intent to keep everyone active, but that could certainly change or they could cut minutes. That is also a late game, so be aware that you will have no recourse if someone sits out.
- Ok so we have several veteran-laden teams playing their last game who have nothing to play for. I’m just not messing with these teams top guys at all. They are: Colorado, Pittsburgh, Washington, Winnipeg, Philadelphia, and Utah. St. Louis and Calgary seem intent on playing their best players down to the last game, so I am fine with them. I’m ok with Carolina because they have to play somebody and everyone is cheap. If CAR1 is active instead of CAR2 I have no interest in them. Be paying attention to the news and make the start time of games a factor in your process tonight. Be sure that there is an available swap.
- MTL1 (Suzuki/Slafkovsky/Caufield) are the clear alternative to COL1 here at 8% vs COL1’s 14%. They are playing for home ice advantage in their series against Tampa Bay and are facing a Philadelphia team that will have a terrible backup in net and is likely to rest some of it’s top guys. It’s not going to be a particularly high-paced game, but they look like a strong play and a clear small-field option.
- I do not have a firm grasp on what their ownership will be – but LAK1 (Kopitar/Kempe/Panarin) look like a really strong play in the 6-8% range that I have them in. They are facing this awful Vancouver team in a game that they need to win in order to avoid Colorado in the first round. I’m hoping their poor projections keep the ownership under control. You can also go to LAK2 (Byfield/Laferriere/Moore) if you want a cheaper option to pair with BOS1. They are totally fine at 7-8%. I think you can go to the Vancouver side here as well. There’s a lot of value to be mined with these guys and an inability to score has not been their problem this season. My preference would be VAN1 (Bluegar/Boeser/Ohgren) or VAN3 (Pettersson/DeBrusk/Hoglander. However a power play stack of Pettersson/DeBrusk/Boeser/Hronek also seems like a strong play. The Canucks are a strong large field play tonight.
- If you want a sleeper on the expensive side, look no further than STL1 (Thomas/Snuggerud/Holloway). The Blues may have disappointed this season – but this group has posted a 3.44 xG/60 and 63 shot attempts/60. Those are strong numbers indicative of plenty of high danger chances. STL2 (Suter/Buchnevich/Kyrou) and STL3 (Dvorsky/Neighbours/Berggren) are also in play as cheap value lines. The Blues may be on a B2B, but I definitely like them against a Pittsburgh team that I have to imagine rests most of their key veterans tonight for Sid and Malkin’s last playoff run together.
- This Minnesota team is resting everyone, so it’s definitely viable to go with Anaheim tonight. ANH1 (Carlsson/Kreider/Terry) look like a solid spend at 18.2K. Both ANH2 (Granlund/Killorn/Sennecke) and ANH3 (Gauthier/Poehling/Veil) seem fine as pay-down options. A power play stack with Gauthier and/or Carlson is also firmly in play. The Ducks need this game and I’d imagine they go all out for it.
- So there’s a glut of value lines to discuss tonight. Do not be afraid to go with MIN2 (Johansson/Brink/Haight) over MIN1. We have them projected better. MIN3 (McCarron/N. Foligno/Sturm) is also kid of interesting for large fields.
- I don’t like them better than MIN2 or the Blues depth, but you can certainly play any of the Flames lines. They have a 3 total, but best of luck figuring out where it comes from. I think the remainder of my cheap line pool is MTL2 (Demidov/Newhook/Texier), MTL3 (Kapanen/Dach/Bolduc), NYI3 (Pageau/Heineman/Lee), and UTA3 (Carcone/Peterka/Kerfoot)
In smaller fields – I’m fine going to BOS1. They’re a strong play. MTL1 and ANH1 are probably my alternatives. I think playing cheaper Anaheim lines as your secondary stacks makes a ton of sense tonight. I don’t hate going to two guys from MIN2, MTL2, or MTL3 with a cheap correlated defensemen in order to get the extra spend-up. It’s a good slate for that considering all the underpriced value
In large fields, we have a ton of underpriced lines. Therefore, It’s hard for me to shop in the mid-priced tier of lines too much. MTL1, STL1, LAK1/PP, and ANH Power Play all stand out as strong plays tonight. Spread out among the cheap stuff though. There’s a long list above, but my favorites are STL2/3, MTL2/3, UTA3, and any line from Vancouver.
Defensemen
- Zach Werenski (8300) is the clear chalk at 25%. Jared Spurgeon (2900) will be the most popular pairing at 21%. This is the highest raw projection and ceiling paired with the best value. I’m fine with it, but I’d prefer to pivot off Spurgeon – as there are other cheap guys tonight
- Matthew Schaefer (6800), Devon Toews (5000), and Filip Hronek (4500) all come in at 10-12% as well. I’m bearish on the first two for sure.
- John Carlson (6400) and Brandt Clarke (5700) both seem like very strong spends tonight. The same goes for Lane Hutson (5500)
- We have a ton of cheap power play guys besides Spurgeon. Philip Broberg (4000), Simon Nemec (3500), Alexander Nikishin (3000), and Mason Lohrei (2800) all look like strong plays. If PIT sits their veterans any of Wotherspoon (2700), St. Ivany (2500), or Solyvov (2500) would be in line for extended run and perhaps some power play time.
- I like Jackson LaCombe (4800), Jake Trouba (3700), Logan Mailloux (3400), Tony DeAngelo (3300), Joel Edmundson (2900), and Pavel Mintyukov (2600) in large field GPPs as well.
- It’s worth mentioning that weather or not you play Werenski alters your construction considerably. Be conscious of who you pair with him because once you go down the Werenski/Cheap guy path it’s easy to end up with woo much ownership.
Be wary of where Werenski/cheap guy leads you tonight. I think getting off him is definitely a strong way to be contrarian. Who knows how much he even plays.
NHL Goalies
- Lukas Dostal (7300) is the clear chalk tonight, but it’s only 15% ownership.
- I like Jakub Dobes (7800), Jordan Binnington (7600), Jet Greaves (7600), and Logan Thompson (7800) if he starts.
- Confirmed: Swayman (BOS), Greaves (CBJ), Rittich (NYI)
- Unconfirmed: Daws (NJ), Ersson (PHI), Dobes (MTL), Thompson (7800), Andersen (CAR), Dostal (ANH), Wallstedt (MIN), Comrie (WPG), Vejmelka (UTA), Blackwood (COL), Wolf (CGY), Silvos (PIT), Binnington (STL), Kuemper (LAK), Laniken (VAN)
Stacks and Theory
- COL1/MIN1 or BOS1/CAR1 (the Stankoven line) with Werenski/Spurgeon are the chalk builds
- The size of the slate dictates a 4/3 or 3/3, but I think larger stacks are in play here given some of the depleted rosters and bad goalies going. If you want to target one team and bet they light someone up for 7-8 goals I think that makes some sense.
- This is a good night to spend down on a cheap line – but just play two guys and a defensemen from it. Like Johansson/Brink/Middleton) or Peterka/Carcone/Cole to get a one-off center or something like that. I think those builds are going to have very high ceilings tonight
- Anaheim, Montreal, Los Angeles, and St. Louis are 4 teams I will be investing in tonight. They’re all in good spots and/or against teams with depleted rosters.
- I think getting away from Werenski also makes sense. He definitely drive your roster down a chalkier path. I think you can go to him or chalk lines – but not both – if you want the optimal ownership quotient.
- There are a group of 6 teams I mentioned above from whom I’m just not investing in their key guys weather they are active or not.
- Pay attention to the news. Guys will get scratched. I am particularly concerned about Colorado.
NHL Synopsis
For smaller NHL fields – I think BOS1 is fine, but MTL1 or ANH1 are definitely in the conversation as well. ANH2, ANH3, and MIN2 is probably the pool of cheap lines. MTL2 and MTL3 are ok as well. Philly called up 5 guys. They’re going to rest some people.
In larger fields – MTL, ANH, STL, LA are the teams who really catch my eye. I think BOS2 (Zacha/Arvidsson/Mittlestadt) is definitely a sleeper here as well. It’s a good night to spend on cheap guys – so MTL1/STL1/LAK1/ANH PP will be a big part of my pool. I really like the STL depth in these formats as well.
*Line Data is drawn from moneypuck.com:
https://moneypuck.com/lines.htm