Welcome to the NFL Positional Breakdown for QBs! If you’re a fan of defense and low scoring football games then you were absolutely in your glory this past Sunday, as we saw a number of QBs and stacks in general fail. The expensive QBs didn’t get there but we did have our mid-tier and value-tier guys get there which helped take down the big prizes! Here’s a look ahead to the top QB plays of Week 3.
Expensive Tier ($7,000+ on DK)
Lamar Jackson $7,500
- Healthy median projection of 22.91 and ceiling of 40.61, Lamar is coming off a lackluster performance for his price tag (he did get a $200 discount this week!) against the Raiders, he’s poised to bounce back against the Cowboys who just made Derek Carr look like Dan Marino.
- Dallas plays a ton of man-to-man defense, similar to what the Chiefs run and Lamar ran to the tune of 122 yards on the ground.
- His rushing upside gives him a pretty big floor that most QBs won’t be able to rely on and even though he’s the priciest QB once again, he’s always in play.
Jalen Hurts $7,300
- Coming off a good individual fantasy performance vs a good real life performance against the Falcons on MNF, we saw Hurts and the tush push return to glory with a 1 yard rushing TD.
- He also threw for a score and had 85 rushing yards, giving him a strong floor and is very deserving of this price tag.
- His median projection of 20.97 and ceiling of 37.09 indicate that he is a value at this tag.
- He has a matchup with the Saints who are running hotter than the fucking sun and if you think (like me) that New Orleans will have no problem scoring points, it’s likely Hurts needs to have a ceiling game to give the Eagles a chance to win.
Mid-Tier $6,000+
Kyler Murray – $6,900
- Probably the last time we see Kyler in the $6K range for the rest of the year and I’m surprised he’s not priced up higher especially after arguably the most efficient start of Kyler’s career.
- 81% completion percentage, 266 yards, 3 passing TDs, and 59 rushing yards???? Yeah Kyler’s still too underpriced for his upside.
- If you thought the game against the Rams indicated fantasy upside, this weekend the Lions come to town and there’s a 51 point total, and this is a PRIME Kyler upside spot once again.
- The Lions are a pass funnel that play a ton of man-to-man coverage, which will allow Kyler to show off his rushing ability once again.
- Kyler has a strong median projection of 20.69 and ceiling at 36.61, which is making him pop early in the week.
Anthony Richardson $6,700
- Coming off a rough outing on the road against GB, Richardson finds himself in a bounce back spot against the Chicago Bears who sport a very stingy defense, but AR15’s rushing upside gives him one of the highest floor/ceiling combinations in this range.
- He did throw 3 picks last week and while the jury’s still out on his passing acumen, he’s a bull in a china shop once he gets a head of steam and takes matters into his own hands.
- Any week he’s a threat for a rushing score and I think he’ll have some opportunities to find Paydirt (see what I did there, big company man here!).
- His median projection of 20.18 and ceiling of 35.75 at his price make him a value to consider.
Brock Purdy $6,000
- It’s worth arguing that without the high level weapons in the offense we should expect the 49ers to take a step back, but I look at it as the passing tree being more condensed for Purdy to leverage.
- He also gets to the the Rams who, in the short sample to start the season, are looking like a defense to attack with 67 points scored against and 426 yards allowed per game.
- Even though the fantasy outcomes haven’t been great, Purdy is still pushing for terrific efficiency this year, with an aDOT of 9.3 and a completion percentage of 72% through two games, giving him an awesome floor in terms of passing upside.
- Considering his price, efficiency, and pruned target tree I think Purdy is a very interesting option this week in GPPs.
Cheap Tier $5,000+
Derek Carr – $5,800
- Is Derek Carr the best QB of all time? You tell me! Forreal though, I’m happy for the guy. I always thought of him as a serviceable fantasy quarterback and it seems like the Saints have figured it out since hiring Kubiak as their new OC.
- Carr just lit the Cowboys up with just ridiculous efficiency (11/16 passing for 243, 2 TDs, and a QB sneak score).
- Carr gets arguably the best secondary matchup he’ll see all year in the Eagles. He himself is never going to have the type of ceiling score that you’ll see from a dual threat QB, but what his price does is unlock easy stacking options to high upside weapons in Kamara, Olave, and Shaheed.
- He has a median projection of 18.04 and ceiling of 31.62, making him a play hard to ignore (he has a higher median and ceiling than any $6K QB not named Richardson and Kyler.
Sam Darnold – $5,500
- Is Sam Darnold the second best QB of all time? Seriously, what a resurgence for Darnold. We’ve been a lot higher on Darnold early on in this season at Paydirt (probably due to a condense, high-upside target tree in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
- What’s impressive about Darnold is that he took it to his former team and finished the game making quality throws with no JJ, Addison, Hockenson, or any first team receiving option on the Vikings.
- This week he gets a matchup against the Texans who have a knack for giving up big chunk passing plays in their zone schemes. If JJ plays, Darnold should be a focal point of your punt lineups.
- Darnold has a VERY strong median projection of 18.98 and ceiling of 33.37. He’s not only a value, he’s one of the strong QB plays on the week.
Andy Dalton – $4,800
- Had to give the red rocket some shine as he finds himself starting for the Panthers this week on the road against the Raiders.
- His price is just simply too cheap and I think we can all agree…. Any QB is an upgrade from Bryce Young right now
- Side note, he attempted only 2 10+ yard passes last week, you don’t get much worse than that.
- LV is a decent defense with an above average pass rush and while this can go horribly wrong and Dalton can fail, he’s a vet with a price tag that’s so cheap to ignore.
- His median of 14.55 and ceiling of 25.53 indicate that if he has an outlier outcome, he could allow you to spend up at other positions and stack some pretty big names
I’ll be back on Friday to break down the top RBs, WRs, and TEs to see where we can find some pivots.
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