Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the new Showdown Contest simulations to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Captain ownership distributions
A couple of things stick out for me here:
- We do actually have a couple mid-tier options available as captains
- DAL players are much more positive than SF players
Jalen Tolbert and Ricky Pearsall are probably about the same play in terms of upside and edge offered at captain, though I am willing to bet that Pearsall gets quite a bit more ownership. That is going to lead to more Purdy in the Flex than justified and throw off a lot of rosters.
Unfortunately the models also like this three headed monster of RBs for DAL. It’s a crapshoot as to who gets the redzone work, but they are all cheap enough that you can take some shots without losing too much upside from the rest of your lineup.
FLEX ownership distributions
The main thing here: Jordan Mason is a great option and can be used as the base for nearly every set of lineups. His exposure in winning lineups from the simulations is 70%, by far the highest rate on the slate. His +22.80% edge offered gives a whole lot of room in case the ownership projections on him are off. He’s a terrific play and the only SF player that will have a reliable workload we can count on.
The issue is, of course, that if DAL gets a decent lead his volume upside can take a big hit, so account for that when you are thinking through game scenarios.
The largest negative edges here are Deebo, Dowdle, and Conley. All of these guys are heavily negative in the double digits and make for generally bad plays in a vacuum. If you end up locking in Jordan Mason in the Flex you can absorb a good amount of the negative from any of these three, but none of them should be played together.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest ownership from the contest simulations. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
Dupe counts should be, for the most part, in check on this one. The sum ownerships are in the 300ish range, which speaks to some decent parity, but it’s important to note that the Flex core is 4 players and not 3 so you do have to be wary of that combo.
Speaking of, the Flex core is Mason/Purdy/Lamb/Samuel with some Kittle mixed in as the #5 spot. People will be rotating value from the WR2/3 spots for SF and likely taking shots on the DAL RB situation. Models give us a pretty easy way out of this since they don’t like Deebo, and arguably you could knock out both Deebo and Purdy if you build around Jordan Mason.
Another note: Neither defense and neither kicker is going to be a big focus today. People are going to play for a high scoring game and assume the value plays will hit, which gives us some edge on kickers in the Flex. I’m not sure why Paydirt has become the voice of reason on that tactic this year but here we are.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
I actually really like this showdown. I think that we have some pretty clear routes towards winning without relying on too much luck and find that the field is overly confident in the values that we have.
I love Jordan Mason and CeeDee Lamb as the spend upds and think that Purdy and Deebo are overvalued. Interestingly that leads me down a path where I want to play for a low scoring affair here where we can find a ceiling for both Mason on the ground and the Cowboys through the air.
I think the 49ers will have to rely on the ground game and slow things down without basically any reliable receivers. Because of this we will see a bunch of 2-TE sets which sets up well for Mason to have more running room. Pairing Mason with the 49ers kicker should give you a really nice base of scoring and good upside if the game is low scoring.
On the other side, I don’t think that the Cowboys have a plan for their RB room, but Dalvin Cook isn’t just going to be active for no reason and he’s way too cheap. I would prefer to play him over Zeke and hope that he gets the TD.
My lean here is pretty simple: Play for a low scoring game with Mason and Lamb as spend ups and Dalvin Cook/kickers as value. I think that Purdy/Deebo are generally bad plays for SE and would like to be under on them in MME.
Overvalued:
- Deebo Samuel
- Brock Purdy
- Shootout Scripts
Undervalued:
- Jordan Mason (Flex)
- Dalvin Cook
- George Kittle
Good luck and bink a unique
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