NFL DFS 2023 Week 3 Thoughts and Notes

Welcome to the Paydirt NFL DFS main slate breakdown! This article will go over some of the most important aspects of the NFL DFS main slate. It’ll typically include things like team totals, popular plays, and important stacks. The content of this is mostly geared towards Draftkings but is plenty applicable to Fanduel as well. Likewise, this article goes over the slate based on the range of outcomes models for NFL found here at Paydirt, so if you are interested in the same data we use, grab a subscription today!

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NFL DFS main slate breakdown:

Team stats, rates, and touchdown projections

• Highest team total on the slate is KC at 30.25, lowest is ARI at 15
• Highest pass TD projection is KC at 2.64, highest rush TD total is DAL at 1.32
• Highest dropback projection is MIN at 41.75, highest rush attempt projection is DAL at 31.64

There are a handful of teams here that are interesting and a handful that look like pretty bad trending plays. There’s been a lot of chatter on CHI (17.75 team total) and HOU (18.00 team total) and typically it’s bad to play teams in those positions. HOU, for instance, will likely have considerably more ownership than a stack like NE who has a higher team total based entirely on garbage time heroics the last two weeks. Some rushing spots that look good that people aren’t really gravitating towards are BAL (8 point home favorites against a bad IND team) and MIA (chalk is on the passing attack, not Mostert).

Highest projected ownership

• Joshua Kelley chalk again is, uhh, interesting?
• Kirk Cousins as big chalk always, always works out perfectly right?
• Jerome Ford not being chalk is a good opportunity to leverage.

Joshua Kelley chalk is bad. His usage was better last week but if an RB isn’t getting a passing role in the LAC offense they are just wildly TD dependent. Tony Pollard looks like some great chalk, as does Jahmyr Gibbs, but I’m interested to see how people fit them with Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill chalk. My guess is people are going to use 2-TE builds to make it work, which feels bad. Would prefer one of Jefferson/Tyreek and paying up at RB to make the FLEX a higher upside fill. The other important piece today is Zack Moss, who has seen his ownership projection drop considerably. He’s one of the best plays on the slate.

Overall slate notes

• Based on ownership, I think that Ford should end up being underowned and Joshua Kelley well overowned. Sticking with RB notes, I would say that Zack Moss is probably the best play on the slate considering ownership, price, and upside of role.
• As far as stacks go, I just don’t think I can see myself landing on HOU stacks or CHI stacks. Both are looking like they’ll get a good amount more ownership than advertised to fit Tyreek and Justin Jefferson together in GPPs. I prefer paying up for the high end stacks and especially prefer gamestacking the MIN/LAC game. I don’t think that will be a low owned route, so be reticent of that in larger fields.
• As far as cash games go, there are actually quite a few routes. You can either pay down at RB and TE and fit Jefferson and Tyreek (my preference) or you can pay for Pollard with them and punt everything else. I don’t think that there is a one size fits all in cash this week at all.

NFL DFS Cash Game Core:

(Added after 12pm EST)

This core of players will help you build a strong foundation in cash games. While it is best to use all these players, it’s not a requirement. Generally, you’ll want to focus on the QB, RB, and TEs listed.

QB – Kirk Cousins
RB – Jerome Ford
RB – Joshua Kelley
WR – Christian Kirk
WR – Justin Jefferson
TE – Durham Smythe
DST – Bills

NFL DFS GPP Core:

(Added after 10am EST)

This core of players will help you build in priorities to your stacks. Likewise, it’s worth noting that the wide receivers and tight ends listed are meant to be in addition to your chosen stacks.

QB – Justin Herbert, Tua, Josh Allen
RB – Jerome Ford, Zack Moss, Jahmyr Gibbs
WR – Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley, River Cracraft
TE – Travis Kelce, Durham Smythe, Dalton Kincaid
DST – Whoever you want

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