Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- WAS is allowing the most FPPM at a rate of 1.09 and are followed closely by DAL at 1.07
- HOU and DET are tied for the least FPPM allowed at 0.91
- BKN, UTA, and GSW are three additional teams worth targeting tonight.
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- WAS/UTA stands out as the top game environment by a good bit. However, there are two actively tanking teams.
- MIN/TOR doesn’t look like a great spot at first glance, but Ant was an afternoon downgrade. If he ends up missing there is massive usage to go around with the remaining TWolves.
- SAS/DET seems like an easy avoid while ORL/DAL and MIA/BKN are additional games you can look at.
Trending Players
Unless we get some injury news there is not a ton of strong value options on the slate in regards to ceiling outcomes. That said, it’s March NBA so some late news is all but guaranteed. Regardless of that Reed Sheppard looks like a strong midrange option and Duren is once again popping as a spend-up option at C tonight.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- As this was being written Gary Payton II was ruled out so ignore him specifically, but note that his exposure will likely just be taken by a fellow GSW value option now.
- Despite WAS/UTA being the top game environment only 3 players from that game show up with any significant frequency. Don’t be afraid to fade that spot. Meanwhile MIA looks like good chalk.
- Your core tonight is something like 2 MIA + 1 WAS and Duren
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
