Welcome to the NBA Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending players. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro NBA Defensive Stats
- ATL leads the lsate in FPPM allowed at 1.09, WAS second at 1.07
- BOS is by far the worst matchup allowing just .89 Fantasy points per minute
- WAS continues to allow the most 3PA per minute, though ATL is now allowing the most points at a whopping .53
Macro NBA Combo Stats
- ATL/MIA is the nuts with both teams allowing over 1.00 FPPM combining to 1.05
- IND/BOS is a terrible game environment at .93, nearly .05 FPPM allowed below any other spot
- I’m surprised at NOP/PHO doesn’t look stronger, I would assume it’s because of the lack of 3PA volume
ATL/MIA is a high paced matchup with two teams who give up a bunch of fantasy points, points, and rebounds. The only thing that IND/BOS has going for it is 3PA volume, but even with that considered the fantasy points upside is relatively low.
Trending Players
Ware continues to be underpriced and is in the nuts matchup, easy play (as you’ll see from the portfolio analysis in a moment). On top of Ware there are a bunch of strong midranged options that are trending up, including Aldama, Buzelis, Portis, and Vucevic priced where they are accessible.
If you want to research these dudes yourself, go over to the gamelogs tool and look into their rotations and performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Ware is nearly a lock here, he’s underpriced in the best game environment
- The secondary core is Portis, Quickley, Powell, and Jaime (note that there are 3 MIA players here)
- As far as overvalued players go, you could argue that Devin Booker is a strong fade (or stand under the field) based on his projected ownership and relatively low optimal rate
All in all, putting a bunch of focus on the MIA/ATL environment is important. Look to correlate Jalen Johnson in those builds as well!
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
