This is a recurring post giving some macro information about the NBA DFS main slate utilizing the Paydirt Range of Outcomes. We are currently testing out a couple different formats and using algorithms to write it, so if you have feedback please let us know!
You can find the NBA Range of Outcomes here if you want to see the full model
NBA Ceiling Data Breakdown
- LeBron James (LAL): A top-tier player with a high salary ($10,500) and projected for 33.79 minutes. He boasts a high ceiling (71.57) and strong probabilities of a top finish (0.35) and 20+% score (1), suggesting high potential but comes with a high price tag. He has a moderate 41.27% ownership percentage.
- Anthony Edwards (MIN): Projected for 36.68 minutes with a salary of $9,500. His ceiling is 66.46, with a good likelihood of a top-5 finish (0.53) and a 20+% score (0.99). His ownership percentage is 23.49%. He presents a solid value, balancing cost and potential.
- Amen Thompson (HOU): With 37.3 projected minutes, his salary is $8,300. He has a ceiling of 61.38, with moderate chances of a top finish (0.06) but a high likelihood of a 20+% score (0.98). His ownership is 17.16%, indicating some upside at a more moderate price point.
- Austin Reaves (LAL): A guard projected for 34.83 minutes with a salary of $8,500. He has a ceiling of 60.42 with moderate chances of a top finish (0.04), but has a high chance of hitting the 20+% (0.99). He is owned in 15.76% of leagues.
- Julius Randle (MIN): Projected for 34.14 minutes and a salary of $7,500. He has a ceiling of 59.43 and a moderate likelihood of a top finish (0.03) and a high probability of 20+% score (0.97). Randle has a relatively high 31.52% ownership.
NBA GPP Data Breakdown (Emphasis on lower salary players)
- Jonas Valanciunas (WAS): A lower-salary center at $5,700 with 26.33 projected minutes. His ceiling is 50.56, with a low chance of a top finish (0.01) but a high probability of 20+% score (0.95). He is a popular pick at 41.05% ownership.
- Ty Jerome (CLE): A value play at $4,400 with 23.4 projected minutes. His ceiling is 42.78, with a very low chance of a top finish (0), but with a high probability of scoring 20+% (0.85). Jerome is moderately owned in 20.01% of leagues.
- Jordan Poole (WAS): A player with a salary of $6,900 and projected for 31.82 minutes. His ceiling is 54, with a low chance of top finish (0.01) but a high chance of a 20+% score (0.96). Poole has 16.82% ownership.
- Deni Avdija (POR): At a salary of $7,300, he is projected for 33.65 minutes. His ceiling is 57.22, with a low chance of top finish (0.02) but a high probability of 20+% score (0.97). Avdija is owned in 13.71% of leagues.
- Julius Randle (MIN): Projected for 34.14 minutes with a salary of $7,500. His ceiling is 59.43, with moderate chance of top finish (0.03), but a very high probability of 20+% score (0.97). Randle is a popular pick with 31.52% ownership.
NBA High Owned Data Breakdown
- LeBron James (LAL): The highest-priced player at $10,500, with 33.79 projected minutes. He has a high ceiling (71.57) and a very high likelihood of a top finish (0.35), with a 100% chance of a 20+% score, and is very popular at 41.27% ownership.
- Jonas Valanciunas (WAS): A lower-salary option at $5,700 with 26.33 projected minutes. His ceiling is 50.56 with a low probability of a top finish (0.01), but very high probability of scoring 20+% (0.95) and is highly owned at 41.05%.
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (MIN): A value player at $3,400 with 24.72 projected minutes. His ceiling is 36.11, with a very low chance of a top finish (0), but a moderate chance of scoring 20+% (0.49) and is highly owned in 38.66% of leagues.
- Max Strus (CLE): Priced at $4,500 with 28.81 projected minutes. He has a ceiling of 41.86 with a very low chance of a top finish (0) and has a high probability of scoring 20+% (0.78). Strus is popular at 35.02% ownership.
- Julius Randle (MIN): With a salary of $7,500 and 34.14 projected minutes,. He has a ceiling of 59.43 with a low chance of top finish (0.03) but a very high chance of 20+% score (0.97). Randle is very popular at 31.52% ownership.
Consolidated Table of Key Players:
