Welcome to the True AVG report! This will be a frequent post outlining the results of the True AVG models on the site which can be found in the MLB Range of Outcomes as well as the free Binomial Projections model. The goal of these posts is to look into the numbers and find large outliers between production and regression. We can use that to take advantage of them in sports betting markets and daily fantasy sports.
Underlined phrases and words have links for extra information! All underlined players have a link to their Fangraphs page for ease of research!
What is MLB True AVG?
True AVG is a regressed metric based on batting average allowed for MLB starting pitchers. You can use it for finding pitchers that have had their results affected either positively or negatively by factors of luck. Basically, we are trying to take luck out of the equation and find what pitchers “truly” deserve. Similar to the predictive xHR/9 stat which I developed to leverage luck in home run deviations, True AVG has been built to be an intuitive way to assess realistic outcomes for pitchers. For more info, check out this video.
Model Results
Recap from yesterday’s post: The report was terrific in regards to pitchers worth using and attacking. The Royals did very well against Noah Syndergaard which Corbin Burnes provided a strong ceiling in a tough matchup. Kris Bubic had the largest positive deviation against the Angels and finished with six hits, two ER, and seven strikeouts.
MLB True AVG notable results
Starting things we have Matt Swarmer with the highest True AVG. His mark of .366 is one of the worst in the entire league. His BABIP and LOB rate are both in an unsustainable territory and his FIP is a gross 8.74. He’s going up against the Pirates who called up red hot prospect Oneil Cruz yesterday for good results. the Pirates have been below average, but with Cruz in the lineup and Swarmer on the bumpthey have massive upside. There’s very little reason to avoid the Pirates here, so take their overs and stack them up in DFS.
Meanwhile we have Dylan Cease with the lowest True AVG on the day at .204. In fact, he also has the lowest season long True AVG at .178! He’s got a rough matchup today with the Blue Jays who are the third best team in the league with a 130 wRC+. However, Cease has shown upside against tough teams like LAD and BOS and shouldn’t worry you here. Projections won’t like him, but if he’s low owned he’s more than viable in DFS.
Significant deviations to consider
- The largest positive deviation goes to Chi Chi Gonzalez but… He’s super bad. Instead let’s look at Kevin Gausman! He started out the season white hot and then ended up running cold in the variance department. That said, we know this will turn around for him and his ERA won’t stay a full run above his xFIP for long. He faces the White Sox today who have been very average against RHP. this is a spot to prioritize Gausman in DFS and hit his overs banking on regression.
- Closing things out, We are looking at Tony Gonsolin as the pitcher with the largest negative deviation. this will be the third start in a row that the models want to attack Gonsolin and hopefully the last. He’s been untouchable all year but especially so in the recent sample. All the indications of luck say “This guy isn’t this good” and it’s important to keep taking shots until regression comes forth. He faces the Reds today on an island game, so fire up a showdown lineup and stack against him.