Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Paul Skenes is back? He has far and away the strongest True AVG on the slate. Considering his True AVG and median projection he seems deserving of the ownership.
- Sean Burke also has a strong True AVG but gets a brutal matchup versus the scorching RedSox. If Boston ownership starts to creep up he’s a worthwhile leverage option. Anderson and Woo round out this secondary tier of True AVG pitchers.
- Elder, Kremer, and Bratt are the bottom 3 True AVG pitchers tonight with Kyle Harrison as an honorable mention. MIA, KCR, SDP, and PIT stacks are all in consideration for large field GPPs.
Macro Team Stats
- BOS and DET are the top teams in 8+ and tied for the 2nd best Top Score%. That said, if you expand to Avg 5th inning score you’ll see that the models expect BOS to do most of their damage vs the opposing bullpen.
- SDP and KCR are the next two teams to consider for full stacks. Notably, the Padres have the highest Top Score% on the slate.
- PIT, MIL, and SEA are the bottom of the barrel in the scoring percentages. MIL and SEA can mostly be avoided, but in large field you can consider PIT just based on the opposing SP matchup.
Trending Teams
DET once again has the top trending % by a wide margin. Not only that, but they also get the best trending matchup on the slate as well. Fire them up as you please. BOS is also trending well and their trending 8% would normally be the best on the slate but the Tigers have been scoring at will recently. Individually BOS doesn’t project great due to opposing pitcher Burke having strong metrics, but if you think they can get to the pen early they could go off again. Thankfully this is keeping their ownership in check as well. SEA, MIN, and NYY are all trending poorly – mini-stack at most if you really want them.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The models are siding with the pitcher side of CWS/BOS as Burke is the highest exposed pitcher in the PM sims.
- SP2 is kind of choose your own adventure with any of Cameron, Woo, or Warren being viable.
- Padres are the clear priority stack with Marlins standing out as a strong secondary option
- Interestingly DET doesn’t show up highly in the portfolio analysis but this is largely because their individual projections aren’t significantly high. This is a likely stack or fade spot.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
