Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Cristian Javier is the standout pitcher tonight in regards to True AVG. He’s reasonably priced and his current ownership makes him a great pivot off of the chalkier Ian Seymour.
- The next tier in consideration includes Cam Schlittler and the aforementioned Ian Seymour. Seymour is cheap and projects well, but playing a chalk pitcher in Coors comes with inherent volatility.
- Webb, Quantrill, and Bieber are the bottom 3 True AVG arms on the slate. It’s worth noting that while they are the worst on the slate, on a macro level they aren’t egregiously bad. Full stacking against them is fine, but strongly consider ceiling ROO as well.
Macro Team Stats
- ARI and HOU are the top two teams for 8+ and Top Score%. HOU gets the slight lean here as Bieber is a bottom True AVG pitcher as noted above.
- The next group of teams to consider for full stacks include COL, SFG, and MIL.
- TOR, STL and PIT are the bottom three teams in the scoring percentages. They can mainly be avoided in SE and small field contests.
Trending Teams
The DBacks, Rockies, and Brewers are the top trending teams tonight. Of that group the Brewers get the best trending matchup by far. HOU is the next best trending team and considering their trending numbers, scoring percentages, and opp. pitcher matchup they look like the top option on the slate. STL and TOR are also at the bottom of the trending models in addition to the scoring percentages. TEX is also not trending well, however, based on the True AVG matchup mini-stacks or one-offs are definitely viable.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Ian Seymour is the highest exposure SP and is your likely starting point tonight. At the very least he’s going to be one of the main decisions you make.
- Cristian Javier and Wrobleski are the top pairings with Seymour, however, they can be played together as well.
- HOU is the clear priority stack on the slate. They currently look under-owned so feel free to #JamEmIn
- Based on the exposure you don’t need to necessarily fade MIL or ARI, but due to the prices of some of their top hitters it’s limiting them as a full stack. If you can fit them in, or play some high ceiling one-offs there’s no reason not too.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
