Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Chase Burns leads the slate tonight in True AVG and gets a solid matchup versus a pretty hapless SFG squad. He’s projected as only the 3rd highest owned pitcher currently.
- In addition to Burns, Wheeler, Gausman, and [gulp] Urquidy are the next group of pitchers that standout. Wheeler grades out as the top option of the three.
- Springs, Ashcraft, and Kelly are the bottom three True AVG arms on the slate. The Twins are in a great spot but will come with ownership, but the Cubs look underowned. Padres can also be in larger field GPPs.
Macro Team Stats
- CIN is the top team in the scoring percentages but a fairly wide margin. They lead the slate in 8+ and Top Score%. Additionally, they aren’t even projected as a top 3 stack in regards to ownership.
- CLE is the next team to target followed by PHI and MIN in that order. In small field contests MIN chalk is likely worth eating as a mini-stack at the very least.
- Giants, Mariners, and Padres are the bottom three in the scoring percentages. The Mariners are a high leverage stack against the highest projected owned pitcher on the slate and the Padres face a weak True AVG pitcher so both can be consider in large field GPPs. The Giant’s can be avoided in SE/limited entries entirely.
Trending Teams
CIN is the top trending team as well as the top team in scoring percentages making them a clear priority stack tonight. CLE and ARI are the only other teams that notably stand out in the trending numbers. As far as trending matchup, the best spot tonight goes to the Cubs. TEX, SFG, and MIN are the worst trending teams on tonight’s slate. MIN is decent in the scoring percentages, terrible in the trending tables, and will be high owned – they are one of the main decisions you’ll have to make tonight.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The models are adamant about taking the value punt option at SP2 in Urquidy.
- Regardless of going all the way down to Urquidy the story being told by the PM tonight is to take a barbell approach at SP with Chase Burns as the clear preferred spend-up.
- CIN unsurprisingly shows up as the highest exposure stack and it’s not close. MIN still shows up as well, but as noted earlier they appear best used as a mini-stack.
- The general framework being laid out by the models is going high/low at pitcher, eating chalk MIN as a mini-stack and pairing that with a lower-owned high-upside main stack.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
