Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Kyle Harrison leads the slate in True AVG but the matchup vs the A’s isn’t great and they get a ballpark boost in Vegas. They’re essentially playing in Coors Lite.
- Sanchez and Williams are the next top two pitchers. Both are projected to carry ownership, but Sanchez is slightly under-owned relative to his ceiling just due to the price.
- Mikolas, Abbott, and Springs round out the bottom three pitchers tonight for True AVG. While MIL is looking like the chalk stack, SFG and SDP make great options at lower ownership.
Macro Team Stats
- MIL, HOU, and SFG are your big 3 tonight. MIL and HOU are the clear chalk while SFG offers a nice ownership discount without sacrificing much projection.
- PHI, BAL, WAS, LAA, SEA, and BOS are the other teams in consideration just looking at scoring percentages. WAS is especially intriguing if Webb starts gaining ownership.
- TOR, NYY, ATH, TBR, and CIN can be avoided if playing limited entries.
Trending Teams
MIL is the top trending team with the top trending matchup. This is in addition to facing a bottom-3 pitcher and having the highest scoring percentage. All that to say they look like good chalk and you should be considering mini-stacks at the very least if not full stacking. The Angels are also popping and will be significantly lower owned than the Astros side of that game. The Giants don’t have the strongest trending matchup, but are trending well. Despite facing a bottom-tier True AVG pitcher, the Padres are trending like hot garbage. You probably don’t want to consider more than a mini-stack here. Similar to the scoring percentages, the trending numbers are very low on TOR, ATH, and CIN.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Chis Sanchez is the clear priority spend up. In order to fit him the models love PLR Mason Englert from TB.
- If you aren’t comfortable playing a long-relief pitcher, Gavin Williams is the alternate SP2. Just be aware that playing Williams plus another expensive SP is likely going to limit your MIL exposure to mini-stacks and one-offs.
- MIL is priced to the moon so they don’t show up as a full stack in the exposures, but Contreras looks to be a priority piece if you play them.
- HOU and SEA are the two stacks that the models are prioritizing with their combination of price/ceiling and allowing you to fit pricier pitching.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
