Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Ranger Suarez and George Kirby lead the slate in True AVG. They both look like good chalk you can play regardless of the ownership.
- Casey Mize and Gage Jump are the next best tier and both will be contrarian options. That said, Mize projects significantly better than Jump. Lambert, Messick, and Manaea are all fine but uninspiring.
- Lauer, Johnson, and a tie between Mikolas/Shota are the bottom 3 True AVG pitchers tonight. A’s, Mariners, Redsox, and Padres are all worth consideration in that regard.
Macro Team Stats
- NYY are the top team in the scoring percentages and tied for top score%. However, when you look at the advanced numbers they have the 2nd lowest 5th inning projection and 5th inning lead% The models are counting on a lot of this damage coming in the latter half of the game which makes sense considering Mize’s strong True AVG.
- The Marlins are the only other team with an 8+ of 30% or higher and are looking like the chalk stack of the slate. After them it becomes a “choose your own adventure” with everyone between HOU and WAS viable in GPPs.
- If you noticed that TOR, CHC, LAD, and TEX are missing from the screenshot you would be correct. Their scoring percentage is so low they did not fit within the first screen of the table. In small field and SE playing CHC and/or Ohtani to lower volatility makes sense. Otherwise, these spots can be avoided outside of 20+ lineups.
Trending Teams
LAA is the top trending team but they get a matchup with one of the top projected pitchers. That being said, this would be an insane leverage spot considering Kirby’s projected ownership particularly in smaller field or higher dollar contests. MIL, LAD, WAS, and HOU are the next group of top trending teams with HOU having the best trending matchup of that quartet. CIN, TOR, CHC, CLE, ARI, and SDP all trending like hot dog water. That’s not to say you can’t play these teams or players, but be cautious about any highly-owned options from these teams.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Play George Kirby and don’t get cute. Especially in SE/small field, with how high is ownership is likely to get even if he duds he likely still ends up in the top 1% of lineups just due to the sheer number of lineups with him.
- Ranger Suarez and Mize are the other pitchers to prioritize. Based on their projected ownership, you can decided on them based on your bats – chalky bats go Mize, contrarian bats go Suarez.
- SDP, SEA, and MIL all look like great stack options tonight.
- Because the models are prioritizing relatively expensive pitchers, full stacks above $22k aren’t popping up frequently outside of MIL (e.g., NYY, LAD, MIA, CHC). If you are willing to pay down at pitcher you can certainly make these stacks work.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
