Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Dylan Cease and Hunter Brown stand out as the top 2 pitchers on the slate for True AVG. They are also playing each other so be mindful on DK if playing the pitcher duel that only one can get the win bonus.
- Aldegheri is the next best True AVG and is dirt cheap. If you need a punt SP2 to jam in all the bats he’s a viable option. True AVG quickly falls off after him and nobody else on the slate stands out in a positive manner.
- Senga, Lauer, and Kelly are the bottom 3 pitchers tonight, and Imanaga is an honorable mention. While pricey, a Mets/Cubs game stack is in play. Otherwise, feel free to fire up Cards and Twins against these bums.
Macro Team Stats
- STL and MIL stand out as the top two teams in scoring percentage as well as DK top score%
- BOS, MIN, LAA, and HOU are the next tier of teams to consider for full stacks.
- CLE and ARI can be ignored if playing limited entries and minimal exposure for MME sets
Trending Teams
HOU is the top trending team and has a strong trending matchup. However, this is where context is important. While their trending numbers are good, the individual pitcher matchup tonight is far from ideal. STL and MIN are alternatives that have both solid trending for and trending matchup number, as well as both LAD and LAA. ARI and CLE are the bottom trending teams just as they are bottom scoring percentage. Also noteworthy is the Orioles poor trending numbers furthering the case for punt Aldegheri.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Dylan Cease is as close to a lock as I’ve ever seen in PM exposures at 99.43% In small field and SE there is no need to get cute here.
- Gavin Williams and Anthony Kay are the two SP2s that show up in 20% or more of lineups. Gavin being the spend up option, and Kay being the punt.
- MIL is the clear priority stack in the models with pieces of STL, LAA, and BAL (surprisingly) showing up.
- Notably the models are pretty low on Coors bats and assuming they are the chalk tonight, this is shaping up to be a good “fade Coors” slate.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
