Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Paul Skenes is the top True AVG pitcher tonight but is playing in Coors. Arrighetti is the “safer” option of the top two True AVG pitchers.
- Sanchez, Peralta, and Taj Bradley are all worth consideration as well. The main consideration with that group is price so you’ll likely want the best value of the bunch.
- The bottom three tonight are Ginn, Sugano, and Gallen. This puts Angels, Pirates, and Twins stacks firmly in play. Dodgers also face a bad True AVG SP – if Ohtani is back there’s new baby narrative.
Macro Team Stats
- MIN and ATH stand out as the top stacks in the scoring percentages with the top two highest 8+ and Top Score%
- HOU and PHI are the next tier in regards to 8+. LAA (facing worst True AVG pitcher), and both PIT and COL (Coors) are also worth considering. Just be mindful of Coors ownership.
- BAL, CLE, and ARI can largely be ignored outside of MME sets.
Trending Teams
HOU, ATH, PHI, and LAA all have strong trending 8+ For and strong trending matchups. This is fairly aligned with the scoring percentages. The Twins and Dodgers also have solid trending numbers just not quite as good a trending matchup given their respective opponents. Also similar to the scoring percentages, ARI, CLE, and BAL are the bottom 3 trending teams.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- The PM Exposures are pretty adamant about spending up at SP1. There’s not a ton of value to fit a double pay up SP build, but cheaper SP2 is “choose your own adventure” tonight.
- Twins stand out as the priority 5-man stack on the slate.
- LAA, HOU, PHI, and other teams with pricier bats are likely better for mini-stacks and one-offs.
- Dodgers and Coors bats are coming in at lower exposures due to pricing and the models prioritizing spending up at pitcher instead of bats, but that doesn’t mean those teams are “bad” plays.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
