Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Jake Irvin leads the slate in True AVG. However, his median projection is not good and the team he’s facing rates out as the top stack today. This is likely a case of “he doesn’t suck as much as he has sucked, but he still sucks.”
- Hudson has high True AVG and is min-price but that’s because he’s an opener, don’t fall for it. Meyer, Peralta, Kirby, and Wheeler are the genuine SP1 options on this slate.
- Once Hudson is out of the game (which should be after 1 inning) Fedde comes in as the worst pitcher on the slate. Kolek is almost just as bad. Fire up SEA stacks, and a SFG/CHW gamestack is definitely in play.
Macro Team Stats
- ATL and CHW are the clear top options today in the scoring percentages. CHW gets the better starting pitcher matchup, but ATL gets the better bullpen matchup.
- WAS is a tier below those top two teams, and SEA and MIN can be included in MME pools.
- The Royals look like a clear avoid regardless of format and contest size.
Trending Teams
ATL, WAS, and CHW are all trending well and all get good trending matchups – very much aligned with the scoring percentages. One other team that is trending well but wasn’t mentioned previously is the Miami Marlins who seem to have a knack for going off on weekend slates. Meanwhile on the other side of that game the Mets have solid trending numbers but a tough pitcher matchup. KCR, BOS, and PHI are at the bottom of both the scoring percentages and the trending tables.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- This is a very clear “pay up at SP” slate as the cheaper pitchers are all pretty bad. Meyer looks like good chalk, and you can pair him with a mix of Wheeler/Kirby/Holmes.
- You may notice that teams that pop of for hitters aren’t necessarily aligned with the scoring percentages. This is partly due to prioritizing $ at pitcher, while also focusing on stack ceiling.
- MIN and PHI are the top two teams in regards to ceiling in the Stacks ROO. They are also affordable and allow you to spend up at both pitcher spots on DK.
- While SFG doesn’t stand out in the scoring percentages, they do get the best matchup on the slate once Fedde comes in to pitch. Additionally, they have a decent ceiling projection as well.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
