Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Due to the sheer size of tonight’s slate the screenshot only contains the pitchers with weighted True AVG above league average. Anyone one not listed above is viable to play hitters against.
- Bryan Hudson stands out at the top ignore that as he is an opener for Fedde. Taj Bradley is the true top True AVG pitcher tonight, followed by Eovaldi. Painter and Warren are also worth consideration.
- Not pictured but Taillon is the stone worst and faces the Dodgers. Rasmussen and Scherzer are the next two worst options vs the Twins and Guardians respectively.
Macro Team Stats
- WAS and SEA have absolutely absurd 8+ percentages tonight. 50% chance of scoring 8 or more runs is just silly.
- Ownership on a 13-game slate can largely be ignored as no one should be coming in at a prohibitive amount outside of very small field contests.
- Not pictured, but TOR, SFG, and MIL all rate poorly and can be avoided on a slate this big.
Trending Teams
Pictured are the teams with a trending 8+ above 10%. Again, just due to sheer size of the slate you should focus on the cream of the crop. That said, take COL with a grain of salt as they will be playing outside of Coors tonight. ATL has been trending well and PHI has been giving it up. CLE also stands out as they are trending well and face a bottom 3 True AVG pitcher. 13 games, plenty of ways to go on this slate.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- Peralta is fine chalk but not a priority. Taj Bradley is the clear top play at SP tonight. Skenes is another high-upside arm to include in your pool.
- Sure enough WAS and SEA dominate the exposures given their scoring percentages and individual projections. CWS also show up a bit with Murakami and Vargas.
- Out of all the players showing up in 20% or more of lineups, only 3 are projected to be chalky further illustrating that projected ownership should not be much of a concern on this slate.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
