Welcome to the MLB Macro Minute! This is a short article focused on macro environments and trending teams. The goal here is to identify easy spots to focus or remove from slates and make DFS a bit easier.
If you have any questions or comments reach out to me in the discord or over on X for some more discussion
Macro Pitcher Stats
- Jesus Luzardo sits atop weighted True AVG tonight, but the matchup versus the Cubs isn’t ideal.
- Simeon Woods Richardson is the bottom of the barrel, but gets a matchup with the hilariously bad Mets.
- Castillo, Mlodzinski, and Bubic are all solid lower-owned options to include in your pitcher pool.
Macro Team Stats
- TOR and NYM are the top two teams in the scoring percentages, however, a large part of this is due to the pitchers they are facing. Bad team vs bad pitcher isn’t an outright avoid, but be wary if any of the bats are chalky.
- SFG and CHC are single digits in 8+. Outside of MME sets you can just remove them from your player pool on a slate this size.
- ARI, BAL, SEA, and PIT all look like high upside option tonight.
Trending Teams
The Angels, Cubs and Dodgers are top 3 in trending 8+ and the trending matchup isn’t bad either. Although they don’t project well, one-off or mini-stacks makes sense. If debating TOR or NYM, TOR is the clear winner as they are at or near the top of both scoring percentages and trending table.
If you want to research these teams yourself, go over to the master tables and look into their trending performances!
Portfolio Analysis Exposures
When you run 1,000 lineups into the portfolio manager and do some filtering, you end up with the above results. Some notes:
- McLean, Imanaga, and Yoshi are the top pitching options as far as exposure rates.
- Portfolio Manager has a clear lean on TOR bats. PIT stacks are viable as well but you’ll want to prioritize the high-upside bats.
- Comparing projected ownership versus exposure once again indicates that eating the chalk at pitcher is perfectly viable as long as you get different with your hitters.
Thanks for reading, go grab some trophies.
